thevin
Thevin Campton

Public Key

npub1tv9uejkrc5ey8ec8ewucf9347p4t7yf6a5uc3nvc2aae90ww9ywsgntde3

NIP-05 Address

Profile Code

nprofile1qqs9kz7vetpu2vjruuruhwvyjc6lq64lzyaw6wvgekv9w7ujhh8zj8gpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds558m4w

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1tv9uejkrc5ey8ec8ewucf9347p4t7yf6a5uc3nvc2aae90ww9ywsgntde3

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Last Notes

2023-11-06 14:02:04 CET

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If you can find Kikusui, highly recommend.

2023-04-23 17:38:17 CEST

This content got 50 likes on Twitter. Let's see how it does on Nostr...
What makes #bitcoin a superior store of value to traditional real estate?
1.) Real estate is EXTREMELY location specific. Your cashflow hinges on local fundamentals/expenses, local regulation, local zoning, local taxation and local population growth.
#Bitcoin is location agnostic. It exists everywhere and nowhere, able to escape authoritarian regimes.
2.) Real estate is EXTREMELY cost intensive. A new roof, functional obsolescence, structural damage, etc can destroy months of cashflow. If you cannot service it or are forced to sell, we call that DISTRESSED. Sound familiar in 2023?
#Bitcoin has no ongoing user maintenance costs.
3.) Real estate profit is EXTREMELY skewed toward operators. As an LP, you are placing your capital in the hands of your operator (GP), who makes the bulk of property decisions w/r/t your investment $.
With #Bitcoin, you control where and how it's controlled. No counterparty risk.
4.) Real estate is EXTREMELY illiquid. The sale process of even a highly-desirable CRE asset is typically 2-3 months. Marketing, offer process, due diligence, closing, etc takes time.
#Bitcoin is a 24/7/365 highly-liquid marketplace with a network uptime of 99.99% since 01/03/2009.
5.) Real estate, particularly CRE, has an EXTREMELY high entry-level cost. Even a small $3M deal typically requires ≥$600,000 in equity. With 60% of the US population living paycheck-to-paycheck, CRE ownership is a dream.
If you have $1.00 to your name, you can buy #BTC today.
6.) Real estate is EXTREMELY management intensive. If you outsource management, it's expensive. If you manage it yourself, it's time-consuming.
#Bitcoin allows you to pocket your "digital real estate" and take your UTXO ownership with you wherever you go.
100% transportability!
7.) Real estate is EXTREMELY subject to environmental risk. Did a neighbor leak hazardous chemicals onto your property? Did a hurricane come through? Hail, flooding, other acts of God?
#Bitcoin exists solely in cyberspace. It does not decay under time or material conditions.
8.) As rental rates rise, so does the $ incentive to construct MORE real estate.
#Bitcoin has a perfectly inelastic supply (21m only). More demand ≠ more btc. As more miners join the network, the more secure the network becomes. As more use #btc, the higher the price should rise.
9.) All of these factors render a blanket conclusion:
For the average person, #bitcoin is a superior alternative as a store-of-value and wealth builder over RE. BTC has less risk, more upside, all while boasting superior returns on a risk/reward basis for long-term holders.
Kudos to the #[0] team and Hard Money show for the great content.

2023-04-15 18:28:49 CEST

Working in Commercial Real Estate, sometimes it be like that
https://nostr.build/av/nostr.build_4153a464c394f84312834d499d5e9ec99c16207a1993edbe49bbd43a6fae57d9.mov

2023-04-12 22:43:08 CEST

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#[2] 👀

2023-04-12 21:23:56 CEST

The fact we live at a time in monetary history where you can pay with (i) paper money, (ii.) electronically via tapping your phone, and (iii) privately and without permission using Bitcoin, goes under appreciated.

2023-04-10 23:29:54 CEST

Can’t tell if Bikram Yoga is making my left knee better or worse. 🫠

2023-04-10 19:02:35 CEST

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100%. I've found some newer banks allow for it, like Mercury for small businesses.

2023-04-10 18:09:08 CEST

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My guess is SMS 2FA is relatively easy for Boomers and older GenXers to grasp. 2FA AUTH apps, not so much. Would create a huge uptick in customer service needs.

2023-04-10 01:43:34 CEST

@similarity bot recommend

2023-04-10 00:51:54 CEST

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I’m waiting for the Doge implementation. The logo stunt felt like foreshadow.

2023-04-10 00:49:02 CEST

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Even more so the idea of a select few controlling the eb/flow of money.

2023-04-10 00:45:18 CEST

CSW is no Satoshi, but he might be Rudy Kurniawan.

2023-04-10 00:42:59 CEST

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Looking forward to more mistakes by Twitter to drive NOSTR growth 👊🏽

2023-04-09 21:38:52 CEST

By forfeiting your liberties, you trade a possible enemy for a guaranteed one.

2023-04-09 21:34:30 CEST

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Damn only 27 more sats needed for generational wealth.

2023-04-09 20:52:36 CEST

You don't need to be a chart specialist to know that 2023 will be serving up lots of humble 🥧 to late-cycle RE investors.
Meanwhile, bitcoiners will be enjoying their baklava.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_33b6f134c52eec9983cc4aac146fd11378a68503a1b011f030be612091dfe1d3.png

2023-04-09 19:50:07 CEST

Sure, WFH is affecting the office market.
Though the greater short-term threat to office are accelerating job cuts, particularly among white-collar workers.
If we assume 1 employee = ~200 SF of office, a layoff of 500 = (~100,000) in net absorption.
This chart is tech alone.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_d2a160ce91702892c3325d2590c25cc03117d2c8edfaada9926322726de92b4f.png

2023-04-06 21:54:33 CEST

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12/ This thread scrapes the surface of the similarities between RE/BTC at a high level.
Deeper threads are possible, but become laden with jargon from either side... BTC witness data, block space, UTXOs... absorption, caps, NOI, zoning/FLU, etc...
Eventually, maybe.

2023-04-06 21:53:57 CEST

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11/ Sure, you "cannot live" in Bitcoin, just as you cannot pick up your 15-unit multifamily property in California where tenants are legally 'squatting' for months on end without payment and move it to another state.
There are obvious pros/cons to each asset. Caveat emptor.

2023-04-06 21:53:36 CEST

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10/ Bitcoin is arguably one of the most valuable humanitarian tools ever created, if embraced.
It provides a path forward toward the separation of money and State.
An escape hatch from monetary control and the financial surveillance panopticon being ushered in globally.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_84bef9154688abf432a492373d127af9f44ad38589afae1c9bb47d2ab9ff950a.jpg

2023-04-06 21:53:06 CEST

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9/ Bitcoin extends property rights to 8 billion people globally.
In countries where restrictions exist (China, Cuba, North Korea, etc), BTC provides safe haven for fleeing capital.
Double-digit inflation or CBDCs? Bitcoin is a monetary tool against manipulation/devaluation.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_87663b0df627a088e797c8148d8816ef251a0bb2f9a118001cccbc81425f9a66.png

2023-04-06 21:52:34 CEST

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8/ Bitcoin exists everywhere and nowhere. Unlike real estate, bitcoin is perfectly transportable. Your buyer pool? Anyone with internet.
You are not limited to a pool of RE investors, but rather any single person looking to transmit or hold value without trust or permission.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_30be896e4c41fe29f8a8da4ffbf0560696047f7df85b55263b43858b2038feb4.png

2023-04-06 21:52:05 CEST

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7/ Bitcoin offers the ability to gradually "save your way to wealth," apathetic to whether you're rich or poor.
It's (i.) perfectly inelastic supply, (ii.) liquidity and (iii.) growing adoption offers asymmetrical upside without the countless risks associated w/ RE investment.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_0369ae788f09377d8b88f11b8599377f5ee7cd858cf29f21a62da0d2792b7ef6.png

2023-04-06 21:51:22 CEST

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6/ Yes, CRE is a great wealth building tool... if you already have some wealth. Even at 80% LTV, for a $3,000,000 asset among six investors, you're looking at $100,000 of required equity.
An impossibility for the majority of Americans (~60%) living paycheck to paycheck.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_2f86e23413b2897c18f5acadb430faa469bba5505114b0d5466bed745fb96cdb.jpg

2023-04-06 21:50:50 CEST

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5/ Every received BTC transaction represents irrevocable ownership of the infinitely scarce BTC network.
Like land in Manhattan, simply by virtue of ownership, you benefit from development.
In NYC, that could be a nearby highrise.
In BTC, it's ALL protocol upgrades and L2/3s.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_9d88929c337c750a70aa47f0a3898c5b7c8e75549be7dc1c968195231fb71aba.webp
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_8db35e3157835885223234b96bcbea33ae9a3e6b1a8947abb60475807cf56ece.png

2023-04-06 21:48:28 CEST

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4.2/ These developments overlaid on the bitcoin base layer include "Layer 2" protocols, such as the Lightning Network (enabling instant payments).
Layer 2 networks provide additional utilization and value accretive to the underlying base, not unlike buildings atop raw land.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_17514798d3b1a301d515c4e349525bfcda67b2da697bb4a82cd82b892aa11366.png

2023-04-06 21:47:38 CEST

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4/ Land is the foundation, the "base layer," of EVERY institutional-grade commercial asset in existence today.
Like land, Bitcoin is the "base layer" of a new monetary protocol.
Akin to construction projects on land, developers all over the world are "building on top" of BTC.

2023-04-06 21:47:10 CEST

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3/ Though, for argument's sake, let's say bitcoin closest resembles land.
Like land, BTC can't be depreciated as most commercial assets.
Both land and BTC have a *perfectly inelastic* supply, meaning increased demand for either does NOT lead to an increased supply.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_0e4c53accb82f883132c7adfc56c02f5c3a2d65dcc2ea46856f3f008774f5cdf.jpg
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_b42410217e86abfea07d9364abf986dc95d143d997d2db1f4b6896218544a2d1.png

2023-04-06 21:46:07 CEST

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2/ Real estate professionals (brokers, owners, investors, developers, etc.) are some of the most dismissive of #bitcoin. At first glance, understandably so.
One reason is obvious—one is purely tangible, one is purely digital. It's difficult to reconcile the two side by side.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_395d684fb8a273797c609ccbc98dcaa9b28d25e338cff63e167e6d2ad4d8fded.jpg
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_5abb4ee376cfbd1ff0d14a860b82422938d2b3346793a79da297b39451086d51.png

2023-04-06 21:44:03 CEST

"Bitcoin is digital real estate."
The investment thesis and similarities drew me in. The gradual evolution of modern finance with BTC as the backbone is what keeps me passionate.
I had some free time last night, so here's a 🧵:

2023-04-06 19:35:13 CEST

Any sort of infographic that shows all the ongoing bitcoin projects? Projects being built on top of bitcoin, Layer 2 networks, etc.?

2023-04-01 00:57:57 CEST

New currency, new problems.
As trust between countries inevitably erode, the only real money left with be that which is fully neutral.
https://watcher.guru/news/brics-are-developing-a-new-currency-state-duma-deputy-chair

2023-03-20 16:06:13 CET

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Conditions will only worsen as the recession continues to ferment.
Domestic outsourcing and offshoring tend to be effective cost-cutting measures for companies facing slowing/flattening/declining revenue growth.

2023-03-20 16:02:56 CET

As the saying goes, "be careful what you wish for."
While some employees dream of being work-from-home, others have lost their jobs because of it.
WFH policies tend to lead to increases in domestic outsourcing, the offshoring for cheap labor and more part-time/leased work.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_f1f71edd81147aaf3903e413bd8c444b403092e6a994c88f09f1321875009bec.png

2023-03-20 15:32:52 CET

A lot of people are going to learn real estate isn't the inflation hedge they thought.

2023-03-19 04:17:14 CET

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Good Lord that didn't post correctly.

2023-03-19 04:16:26 CET

WFH Update!
Remote work has stabilized to ~30% for most firms, largely flat since April '22.
Data shows most employees do *NOT* want to work from home 100% of the time. The majority prefer 2-3 days in the office, depending on age.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_b04a14f8e32bd4527976d9ca2f73ed35910a7b07f3a20f6eb944dcf00cc14ee9.png
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_830f22f4b344b1ffbcd6fe177c563b18c1889ee5db517c68ef8107a34601da8b.png
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_830f22f4b344b1ffbcd6fe177c563b18c1889ee5db517c68ef8107a34601da8b.png
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_b04a14f8e32bd4527976d9ca2f73ed35910a7b07f3a20f6eb944dcf00cc14ee9.png

2023-03-12 16:56:10 CET

Moving back to Florida presents three very different career options…
1.) Continue fiat-mining in CRE brokerage
2.) Work in family construction business
3.) Break into a Bitcoin job
Decisions, decisions…

2023-03-09 14:27:00 CET

Plot twist: There is no "biggest real estate conference" in March. 😂
Real estate is absolutely hurting, particularly segments of the commercial RE industry, but this screenshot is just bogus, clout-chasing fear porn by whoever posted it on Twitter and claimed it was from a prominent CEO in the RE industry.
Don't believe everything you read.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_159665ab9065e4424d196964d34ceeae3dfecee5464501818d2a9621ce5487b8.jpg

2023-03-02 22:12:56 CET

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🌩️

2023-03-01 15:45:51 CET

I can now zap on Damus via mobile...Dangerous, on-the-go freedom software.

2023-03-01 14:04:01 CET

pura vida 🤙

2023-03-01 05:29:10 CET

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Looking forward to listening 🔥

2023-03-01 04:31:04 CET

#[0] when Nostr pin 👀

2023-03-01 04:28:35 CET

Pay $8.00 for Twitter Blue... Or fund 34,160 sats of zapping on Nostr.
Easy decision 😏

2023-03-01 04:24:36 CET

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And your NIP-05 verification coming shortly 🔥

2023-03-01 04:16:36 CET

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👀

2023-03-01 04:06:04 CET

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😘 Zap!

2023-02-26 20:59:00 CET

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Ah, didn't realize you were based in the EU. That'll definitely make things more challenging...

2023-02-26 19:29:54 CET

Crazy amount of CRE debt maturities coming due in 2024, 2025... Tons of opportunities, especially via forced sellers.
For most, Bitcoin is the superior "real estate" play!
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_251dbea12b93ed85fba0a36776165928f3076d2e0be7fc60d1ef1cd41c242b32.jpg

2023-02-26 17:45:23 CET

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+1 - You end up getting a better value as well.

2023-02-26 01:35:50 CET

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Low t

2023-02-26 01:35:07 CET

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Great episode! ✊

2023-02-25 22:34:17 CET

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Awesome 😆

2023-02-25 00:18:51 CET

Completed a 5-day (130h) water fast.
The human body is crazy.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_a8ab152035577b405620d3a117ef8bead12e9b68565da610cff08d38dc4b6cc8.png

2023-02-24 21:41:41 CET

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RIP to the Mandibles shot taker

2023-02-24 17:50:20 CET

“Carvana’s biggest problem is its debt, which stands at more than $8 billion with $2.4 billion in cash burn projected over the next two years.”
Difficult buildings to re-purpose which affect underlying value.
On the bright side, at least they can take comfort in knowing they're the proud owners of phallic architecture. At least their buildings can stand tall and proud as monuments to their impressive financial woes.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_5912fcdc836f933d97c844f781841ed8959d8617a6a264d59cdea8cd23f61103.webp

2023-02-24 17:06:54 CET

Are my zaps working? 💀

2023-02-24 17:06:11 CET

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Absolutely zaps. It will draw content creators, which will attract more people to Nostr who seek their content. Also but probably secondly, once Nostr gets greater scale, people who get burned from traditional SM will find it as a superior censorship-free alternative.

2023-02-22 20:54:01 CET

This property sold for 100 basis points ***BELOW*** the risk-free rate. Insanity.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_1b6f3e8ad87a7b0f35ff29081a3d5c99156ca0de2f05a20e61b8dc3462f4503f.jpg

2023-02-21 22:49:38 CET

It's a risky game.
Institutions piled into apartment properties with yields <5%, and now with the risk-free rate pushing past 3.9% and rents slowing, the outlook is opaque.
Do you continue to pile into these assets?
Or risk watching property values plummet if you don't?
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_5a49d73e923fc200a31623bd4a1e9c30e2474b8e88fbffdb55a15a70b46af394.png

2023-02-21 22:19:08 CET

In the world of CRE, institutions are often content playing a passive game of hot potato with their wealth. They pass off (TRUST) their money to 'professionals,' cross their fingers and hope for the best.
What's going to happen when these institutions learn Bitcoin is a superior scarce asset with
BETTER yield,
ZERO required trust,
24/7 liquidity, and
LOWER risk?
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_4b5de0f9fa22c0ea6c87a13fccac4ef429b7cff6c260cb08fdd131401ea50a0b.png

2023-02-21 19:26:28 CET

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Ah, man. Tough break. As others said, it rarely takes six months for an appointment regardless. Hopefully you get lucky!

2023-02-21 17:21:31 CET

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This is the shortcut: https://www.cbp.gov/travel/trusted-traveler-programs/global-entry/enrollment-arrival
Look into Enrollment Upon Arrival if it’s not approved beforehand.

2023-02-21 16:25:05 CET

According to a report by @WSJ, more and more large office landlords are failing to repay their loans due to the combination of elevated interest rates and the increasing adoption of remote and hybrid work policies.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/office-landlord-defaults-are-escalating-as-lenders-brace-for-more-distress-894938c0
The office market is competing against secular shifts and cyclical phenomena simultaneously. Leases expiring before 2026, totaling approximately 1.4 billion square feet of space, may lead to the return of nearly 300 million square feet of space to the market.
Owners are expected to hold onto their best product and liquidate their most challenging assets first. Refinancings could prove challenging as values no longer support current terms, meaning an additional equity gap would need to be filled.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_e691b434f08ab7447ebfec33263cca5aaf64355ec71734a051db0db244958b83.jpg

2023-02-19 02:48:25 CET

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https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.forbes.com/sites/glebtsipursky/2023/01/23/elon-musk-is-now-a-fan-of-remote-work/amp/

2023-02-19 02:48:18 CET

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Cutting costs is no small feat for companies. Elon Musk knows it. It's why he's closing some offices and reducing one of the biggest expenses after labor: office rent.
WFH may actually increase in a recession for the cost-cutting benefits alone.

2023-02-19 02:47:50 CET

Remote work is the e-commerce of the office property market - both have disrupted traditional business models and are forcing real estate/businesses to adapt.
"A recession will allow CEOs to force their employees back to cubicles! They'll be begging for jobs!"
No guarantee.

2023-02-18 20:47:20 CET

Charlie Munger's skepticism of Bitcoin makes sense, considering it took him and Warren Buffett 35 years to get on board with Apple.
Unfortunately, I don't think he has another 35 years.

2023-02-18 19:17:29 CET

Commercial property markets are freezing, and CMBS sales have dropped 85% YoY. Higher rates are expected to lead to a lot of defaults. Equity investors: check #Bitcoin's price vs. the loans outstanding.
Brace for impact.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-17/sales-of-cmbs-plunge-85-as-commercial-property-markets-freeze?leadSource=uverify%20wall

2023-02-17 18:13:18 CET

Last month, investors filed to withdraw more than $700m from the property fund (SREIT), which represents a significant increase from the norm.
It seems their capital partners are finally questioning the sub 4.5% cap rate multifamily purchases and the REIT's 26% office portfolio.

2023-02-17 17:45:46 CET

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#[0]

2023-02-17 17:10:25 CET

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#[0]

2023-02-17 01:17:43 CET

So many office buildings sales heading into 2022 and 2023 have felt like a game of hot potato.

2023-02-17 01:11:04 CET

Received a call from a prospect I hadn’t spoken with for over 12 months (largely since I relocated to the other side of the country).
They want to sell their building.
Literally the definition of moving pains. 🫠

2023-02-16 22:50:35 CET

In a major recession, breakfast retailers are among the first to fail.
People begin to reconsider their $7 lattes and $8 microwave breakfast sandwiches.
🚩
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_4b532c085bc2f6602cc48ccd2e2eaaa3ec1fe587ac2ff88581309a75762ba894.jpg

2023-02-16 22:19:41 CET

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Interesting time capsule… there’s a clear dichotomy between the Twitter of 2009 vs. 2023.

2023-02-16 21:06:36 CET

There are ±255,000,000 homes in the United States. There are only 21,000,000 bitcoin.
Choose accordingly.

2023-02-16 20:58:38 CET

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what is sleep

2023-02-16 20:48:23 CET

WFH is to workers like Bitcoin is to money... The freedom of work-from-home will continue to attract top talent and suck life out of office buildings.
And this is a long-time coming for office owners. Some of the most prominent office properties in prime downtown markets across the U.S. continue to struggle with *real* occupancy. The majority of large office leases are 5-, 10-, or 15-year leases. When those leases begin to end and tenants adjust to their true occupancy, the pain will worsen for these owners.
We are barely 3 years past COVID-19's onset.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_8a56e94703ec74e0d23a61ccfe8bb0b1f7d42fad16b828b36c2e62bf49070bc8.png