DrJeff
Dr. Jeff

Random pleb.
Fund manager.
Former physician.

I'm mostly on Substack these days, writing Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook... come find me there!

https://substack.com/@drjeffross

- Macro
- Charts
- Bitcoin
- Geopolitics
- Often wrong
- Random musings
- Sometimes funny
- Fund management insights
- Never individual investment advice

** Nothing to do with Vailshire Capital Management, LLC or Vailshire Partners, LP hedge fund **

Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

NIP-05 Address

[email protected]

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqprpmhxue69uhhqun9d45h2mfwwpexjmtpdshxuet5e30trv

Publishing to

Author Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

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Last Notes

2026-07-27 17:29:48 UTC

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Which character?

2026-07-27 16:59:41 UTC

You can just do things… including starting over on X.
I am looking forward to the Spaces and expert macro discussions again.
I’m not looking forward to the crypto bro and fiat clowns. But all pre-Bitcoiners need to be challenged and educated.
After nearly two years away… I’m jumping back in to the arena.
https://x.com/formerdrjeff?s=11

2026-07-26 22:16:17 UTC

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Not wrong.

2026-07-26 22:01:31 UTC

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Verdict: Moderately disappointing.
I’d give it a B or B-.
Not as woke as some people seem to think it is, but definitely not Christopher Nolan’s best work.
If you’re hoping to see an “epic” movie in the theater, save your money and stack sats instead.
Onward and upward.
#nevent1q…04ez

2026-07-26 15:29:53 UTC

Going to see a movie in an actual movie theater today like it’s 1992.
#Odyssey 🍿

2026-07-25 16:44:57 UTC

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Yep.
Times change.

2026-07-25 13:34:41 UTC

Q: What do you have if you own STRC and MSTR?
A: You have less bitcoin.
- Opportunity costs are real. You will do well to consider them.

2026-07-20 03:36:37 UTC

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I’m glad that my delivery is soothing to you! I’m not sure I can swing reading these things aloud since I already have so much on my plate. But I will consider it… 🍻

2026-07-16 21:27:37 UTC

When AI hardware falls 6% and bitcoin falls less than 1% on the same day... is that noise?
Or is that a rotation?
Seven charts say it's a rotation.
Issue #11 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Investing
https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/a-major-market-rotation-is-underway

2026-07-16 18:13:00 UTC

My stance on so-called Bitcoin Treasury Companies...
https://blossom.primal.net/37073db8d4fb9aea4ec125aa11e77738003d8c037a897b75bd425cedae4337ba.png

2026-07-14 13:01:22 UTC

Status update:
🐂🐂 ✅
🐂
🚫
🐻

2026-07-14 11:54:54 UTC

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Love it. ⚡️

2026-07-12 19:20:30 UTC

Forget dirty government cuck bucks.
Bitcoin is the blue collar dollar.

2026-07-10 12:45:43 UTC

🐂

2026-07-06 22:49:43 UTC

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I love it.
Selling bitcoin for fiat yield payments. 🤦🏻‍♂️
This is a good example of how bitcoin always flows to where it is best treated. ⚡️
#nevent1q…gp6l

2026-06-25 17:32:01 UTC

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Congrats to all who never stopped believing. 🎉
#58kGang
#nevent1q…eexm

2026-06-24 18:21:54 UTC

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Atlas Shrugged, Part 3, Chapter IV

2026-06-24 15:59:40 UTC

“The reward of achievement is martyrdom.”
- Ayn Rand

2026-06-18 21:28:44 UTC

Bitcoin just touched its 200-week SMA for the fifth time in history.
The worst 1-year return following the prior four touches: +121%.
Every single cycle ended with a new all-time high.
Issue #9 is live. Free and paid content inside.
Enjoy! 🍿
#Bitcoin #Macro #Chartbook
https://substack.com/home/post/p-202635656

2026-06-06 17:10:54 UTC

*ramps up the DCA like an anti-normie

2026-06-04 15:38:35 UTC

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My guess is that most people will routinely accept bitcoin for major purchases, like a house, by the 2030s.

2026-06-04 13:59:11 UTC

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Accurate.

2026-06-04 12:35:38 UTC

The fear is palpable among the many who still price their lives in dollars or other fiat currencies.
Few understand that Bitcoin is the only Denominator that matters.

2026-06-03 21:07:37 UTC

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What I'm watching... 👀
According to adherents of the Power Law, June 2026 may be the last possible month for a legitimate #58kGang party.
I'm here for the possibility. 🍿 🎉 🍿
#bitcoin
#nevent1q…qrdc

2026-06-03 00:21:24 UTC

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Zing.

2026-05-29 18:24:36 UTC

“If you use their money you will be their slave.”
- Porter Stansberry

2026-05-29 16:16:12 UTC

My latest macro interview with @nprofile…0k0v via Substack. 🍿
https://substack.com/@jeffross191961/note/c-267204155?r=8bgxt&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

2026-05-21 12:23:37 UTC

Issue #7 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀
But Seriously... What Is Your Home Actually Worth?
Your home is up 68.7% in dollar terms over the past decade. Congratulations!
But what if you measured it in something that cannot be printed?
Down -51.7% in gold terms.
Down -98.5% in Bitcoin terms.
Same asset. Three measuring sticks. Three completely different realities.
Also in this issue:
→ The 2-year Treasury yield is rising again... is "higher for longer" a constraint, not a choice?
→ Bitcoin update: what started as a bear flag has morphed into a bullish ascending channel. But the 200-day SMA remains undefeated.
→ SPX/Gold updated: a bounce reminiscent of Q4 1972. Time will tell.
→ Your friendly neighborhood physician on resistance training and why the scale is lying to you
"Great nations are built on proof of work. And they die on proof of stake."
Read it here: https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/but-seriously-what-is-your-home-actually
Not investment advice. Not medical advice. Just a curious observer sharing what is on his charts.

2026-05-16 17:25:25 UTC

Shout out to the “Engineered Crisis”…
…and to the governments who both create and take advantage of them.
Forced commodity supply shock ➡️ Rising inflation ➡️ Rising government bond yields to intolerable levels ➡️ “Forced” yield curve control to “save” the bond market ➡️ Acceleration of currency debasement ➡️ etc., etc.

2026-05-15 02:03:16 UTC

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Looks amazing!

2026-05-07 20:49:22 UTC

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🤝

2026-05-07 13:32:47 UTC

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🤝

2026-05-07 11:53:37 UTC

Issue #6 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀
The Other Side of the Storm
I have a confession: I have been spending too much time in the doom loop. This issue is different.
→ AI is augmenting workers, not replacing them -- the data says so
→ US unemployment near historic lows despite decades of automation fears
→ S&P 500 earnings growing at 18-22% -- the AI productivity story is real
→ Bitcoin priced in gold: strikingly similar to the Dec. 2022 bottom
→ Bitcoin short-term: bearish ascending channel resolved to the upside, now knocking on the 200-day SMA
→ Silver: third test of upper boundary resolved to the upside THIS MORNING
"Great nations and economies are built on proof of work. And they die on proof of stake."
Plus: proof of work nutrition. Yes, really.
Not investment advice. Not medical advice. Just a curious observer sharing what is on his charts.
Read it here: https://substack.com/@jeffross191961/p-196704246

2026-04-23 11:56:35 UTC

Issue #5 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀
Signals Converging
Four independent frameworks. One directional message.
→ The US dollar reclaims its 200-day SMA -- bullish near-term, complicated long-term
→ Bitcoin forming a second bear flag -- with liquidity confirming the warning
→ Michael Howell's GLI suggests lower crypto prices over the coming 13 weeks
→ Brent Crude is a coiled spring -- the geopolitical wildcard nobody is pricing correctly
→ NASDAQ/Gold: a 40-year pattern that has repeated twice is repeating again
The window for clear thinking may be shorter than most people realize.
Read it here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-195167379
Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.

2026-04-17 20:38:56 UTC

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🤝

2026-04-17 14:23:57 UTC

Just dropped!
I had a great conversation with @nprofile…hd7x on the latest What Bitcoin Did show.
Check it out and let me know your thoughts. 🔥
And don’t forget to zap Danny for his tireless efforts and excellent interviews! ⚡️
https://youtu.be/JPrM0J-eUfU?si=lJQVVv0eKP_d2Zn0

2026-04-13 15:20:20 UTC

We are all military analysts now.

2026-04-10 01:19:41 UTC

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Check out Charlie Garcia’s Substack.

2026-04-10 01:18:50 UTC

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Unfortunately no

2026-04-10 01:18:39 UTC

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Because that’s what they hope for.

2026-04-10 01:15:29 UTC

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🤝

2026-04-10 00:22:03 UTC

lol… so many people and market participants reading/watching mainstream media think the war in the Middle East is basically over.
Things about to get real in the coming days.
Geopolitical and financial reorganization is just getting started.
#FourthTurning vibes

2026-04-09 21:56:35 UTC

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🤝

2026-04-09 21:46:47 UTC

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🤝

2026-04-09 21:46:37 UTC

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🍻

2026-04-09 12:11:03 UTC

Issue #4 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 👀
What Are You Measuring Your Wealth In?
→ S&P 500 Total Return: +286% in dollars. +0.17% in gold. -97.59% in Bitcoin.
→ Oil tells the same story — even hard assets fail the sound money test
→ Why central banks are quietly abandoning the dollar measuring stick
→ SPX/Gold at 1.43 — the 100-year view, updated
→ A bonus health observation from your friendly neighborhood physician 😄
The dollar is a shrinking ruler. Here's what the charts look like when you use a better one.
Read it here: https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/what-are-you-measuring-your-wealth?r=8bgxt
Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.

2026-03-27 19:08:39 UTC

It’s been awhile.
Who’s getting ready for yet another #58kGang party?!?
🥳

2026-03-27 14:02:44 UTC

Bonus post just dropped for subscribers of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook 👀
What I'm Watching: The MOVE Index & the NASDAQ 100
The bond market's "fear index" is spiking. Historically, local MOVE Index peaks have coincided with local NASDAQ bottoms.
Are we approaching another peak? We'll see.
Free to read for all subscribers. Link below.
Not investment advice. Just a curious observer sharing what's on his charts.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-192312552?source=queue

2026-03-26 18:46:51 UTC

“Historically-speaking, when proof of physical work—manufacturing—suffers, so too does the world’s proof of work energy money: Bitcoin.”
https://substack.com/home/post/p-192133827

2026-03-23 19:12:45 UTC

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🤝

2026-03-23 18:21:50 UTC

Bonus Issue 2.5 just dropped... free for everyone! 👀
https://substack.com/home/post/p-191893327

2026-03-22 02:01:12 UTC

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I had the same experience with pulmonary embolism. 😳

2026-03-22 01:59:15 UTC

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Agreed.
But we’re definitely picking fights at the forefront.
In the end, I reckon that most of the world will be involved in the fight.
And the world will look, act, and work very differently than how it does now.

2026-03-22 01:35:18 UTC

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Agreed.
I’m confident this will be the ultimate outcome, though I’m not looking forward to path to get there.

2026-03-22 01:34:21 UTC

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I imagine that even the world’s most powerful military can get spread too thin.

2026-03-22 01:25:18 UTC

So… in the coming days/weeks:
- US vs Iran over Kharg island.
- US vs Russia over Cuba.
- US vs China over Taiwan.
Seems like a lot. 🤔
Hegemony-ending kind of stuff, no?
What could possibly go wrong?
🇺🇸
Issue #3 coming on March 26th…
https://substack.com/@jeffross191961/note/c-231324990?r=8bgxt&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action

2026-03-20 19:15:24 UTC

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Here's the market cap of both gold and bitcoin.
Source:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/chart-gold-bitcoin-marketcap/?lang=en
https://blossom.primal.net/e0e37f2c0fbbb0847d0c1ebeec068cf9e552c53bda4984d453455d6efb55f4fa.png

2026-03-20 17:20:25 UTC

What I'm watching… 👀
The Nasdaq 100 rarely closes below its 200-day moving average… but when it does, it has historically gotten worse before it gets better.
We're there now. 🍿
More in Issue #3… March 26th.
https://substack.com/profile/13972097-jeff-ross/note/c-230721992?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=8bgxt

2026-03-17 14:00:16 UTC

It’s early days, but…
If you’re interested and have found it helpful so far, I would be honored to have you help spread the word of my new newsletter (Dr. Jeff’s Macro Chartbook) on Substack.
You will be rewarded for your efforts with free months of subscription.🤑
Here’s how to help:
https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffross191961/p/invite-your-friends-to-read-dr-jeffs?r=8bgxt&utm_medium=ios

2026-03-16 22:36:34 UTC

The script?
Team A: Get overly involved and distracted in the PG, by design.
Team C: Make a quick move for T while Team A is “too far away to meaningfully help.”
Team A: “We would have liked to help more, but the PG crisis was imminent and most of our former allies refused to help. What could we do?”

2026-03-16 19:02:51 UTC

"80+ years of US hegemony hang in a balance.
And that balance is the Strait of Hormuz.
The next few weeks may be the most consequential — and enlightening — since WW2… and the outcome will set the stage for the next 80-100 years.
The world is watching… and holding its breath."
https://substack.com/profile/13972097-jeff-ross/note/c-228755442?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=8bgxt

2026-03-16 16:40:08 UTC

For those curious about the person behind "Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook"... I just updated my About page on Substack.
As a registered advisor I'm (frustratingly) limited in what I can say publicly, but I can still share observations, frameworks, and general macro thinking.
It feels good to contribute to the public conversation again... especially during these increasingly interesting times. 👀
Onward and upward.
Here's a link to the updated page: https://jeffross191961.substack.com/about

2026-03-13 20:58:58 UTC

“If the pattern holds — and there is no guarantee it will — global M2 may be approaching a cyclical peak sometime in the coming weeks or months. Or maybe it just did in February 2026. Bitcoin, it appears, already knew.” 👀
https://substack.com/home/post/p-190653110

2026-03-13 18:26:19 UTC

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🤝

2026-03-13 16:28:39 UTC

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I’d say since the GFC, then accelerating in 2014.

2026-03-13 16:24:53 UTC

Early WW3 vibes.

2026-03-13 15:09:13 UTC

After my first two issues on Substack this week, "Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook" has already cracked the top 10 Rising Bestsellers in Finance! 🎉
I'm blown away by the response. Thanks for your support.
Issue #3 coming on March 26th. 👀
https://blossom.primal.net/23987dfeee02c9e3766b996b32ef243bdaa0e8d05e731082feb47be71ec5c83c.png

2026-03-13 14:51:30 UTC

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Amazing!
Congrats on getting this done, Lyn!! 🔥

2026-03-12 22:47:47 UTC

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Thanks bro.
I’ve been taking a much-needed break from podcast interviews and social media.

2026-03-12 21:20:09 UTC

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Plebs + proof of real work for the win.

2026-03-12 20:51:06 UTC

Because I like you, here's a free glimpse of an amazing chart that I'm regularly watching... 👀
Three data lines are overlapping:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI (multi-color line)
2. Global M2 (blue line)
3. Bitcoin price (red/green candles)
I still believe that the unimpressive bitcoin price performance in 2025 resulted primarily from the lack of a positive US manufacturing cycle since 2021.
Everything became distorted during the 2021 Covid-related, fiscal/monetary easing debacle, but cycles have a way of re-establishing themselves.
ISM Manufacturing PMI is finally starting to recover.
It will be interesting to see if the price of bitcoin responds in kind, as it (seemingly) has in the past.
Not a prediction, just some observations.
Cheers. 🍻
https://blossom.primal.net/d428fc79e6967527a568e95657b84c5c38726912aed4a3a357c35314116d2d96.png

2026-03-12 15:28:44 UTC

Even after a suboptimal 2025, we are still here. 👀
Onward and upward.
(Not a solicitation to invest.)
Source: https://portal.barclayhedge.com/cgi-bin/mc_global/userSummary.cgi
https://blossom.primal.net/760f24bec667d50a5ceee7760297e760cca22eeddefd74b0b69b32fcddb791b2.png

2026-03-12 12:07:31 UTC

Issue #2 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 🔥
This week: Follow the Liquidity
→ Global M2 vs. Stocks & Gold
→ Bitcoin as a leading indicator at peaks... but a lagging indicator at troughs
→ The asymmetry that most macro analysts miss entirely
→ SPX/Gold at 1.31 — and the 3 notorious dates in history when it was last here
Free readers get Charts 1 & 2. Paid subscribers get the full picture — including the most interesting charts.
Read it here: https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffross191961/p/dr-jeffs-macro-chartbook-issue-2?r=8bgxt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Not investment advice. Just the charts that matter.

2026-03-10 18:32:22 UTC

Issue #2 of the brand-new "Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook" drops this Thursday, March 12th. 👀
Each issue: ~5 charts I'm actively watching as a fund manager, with commentary on what I think they're telling us. Macro, geopolitics, the occasional Bitcoin rant, and unsolicited health/wellness advice -- all included at no extra charge. 😁
If you missed Issue #1 -- the most important macro chart of the last 100 years -- you can read it here:
https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/dr-jeffs-monthly-macro-chartbook
Note: I will never give individual investment advice. Don't ask. 😉

2026-03-10 18:13:04 UTC

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I didn’t know that was an option. Thanks!

2026-03-10 17:47:57 UTC

A systematic process is ♾️ better than a prediction.

2026-03-10 16:48:19 UTC

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Haha... thanks Dan!
I didn't notice it until after I posted it... and now I can't edit it.
Thursday, March 12th, is the correct date. 🤝

2026-03-09 19:32:35 UTC

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Just as ISM Manufacturing PMI is increasing (a positive), global liquidity rate of change is slowing a bit (a negative). I'll try to touch on the nuances (and their implications) more in the newsletter. -- We are living in interesting times...

2026-03-09 16:38:29 UTC

I'm doing a new thing. On Substack. 👀
Hopefully, it will provide value to some of you!
https://blossom.primal.net/c44ac727fac3c64c9b2d4730ac705cae776fc464e3e487bd4650effdb5960002.jpg
https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffross191961/p/dr-jeffs-monthly-macro-chartbook?r=8bgxt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2026-03-07 04:33:03 UTC

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Yep. Still holds true.
I’ll be astonished if the price is below $69k again any time after 2026.

2026-02-17 19:03:05 UTC

Have you traded your savings account today, degen?

2026-02-01 04:27:02 UTC

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🤝

2026-02-01 04:26:38 UTC

I recently received this good news from BarclayHedge about my little friends and family hedge fund:
“Vailshire Partners, LP has ranked #1 in the Multi-Strategy - Past Three Years category for the 3rd Quarter, 2025.”
I make lots of mistakes, but sometimes we get things right with our long-term systematic investment approach.
https://blossom.primal.net/dc206a5a71cfbbee56a334fbe2d6321c10a952c18f6f9f11ddb9167bac39d1db.jpg

2026-01-22 19:19:43 UTC

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Based on a 5-year chart and weekly candles (which I use for my fund), both MSTR and XXI look like they are at or near bottoms. MSTR is starting to show signs of early momentum... we'll see if it holds. Both are cheap and hated, which I like as a contrarian long-term trader.

2026-01-20 17:43:12 UTC

I don’t know about you , but I think it’s pretty wild to watch the post-WW2 geopolitical and financial world order fragment and reorganize in real time. 👀

2026-01-16 13:56:37 UTC

Ozempic is the new Prozac.

2026-01-16 02:54:43 UTC

John 14:27
[27] Peace I leave with you; my peace I give to you. Not as the world gives do I give to you. Let not your hearts be troubled, neither let them be afraid.
- Jesus of Nazareth

2026-01-15 12:36:33 UTC

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🤝

2026-01-14 19:30:02 UTC

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🤝

2026-01-14 19:18:55 UTC

Based on the amount of comments (primarily on YouTube) that I am a "moron" who should "stay in [my] lane" and not discuss geopolitics because I am "way out of [my] depth"...
I would recommend that such folks take some time to actually read the National Security Strategy of the United States of America, which was published by the Whitehouse in November 2025.
Afterwards, if you would like to have a civilized discussion about my misinterpretations of the Trump administration's geopolitical and military actions/intentions, I would be amenable.
Here is a link for your ease:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

2026-01-14 15:24:46 UTC

Another quarterly Mastermind banger with @nprofile…5gu2 , @nprofile…hs8c , and @nprofile…9pq8 ⚡
We discussed:
- Venezuela
- Taiwan/China
- Restructuring of the geopolitical world order
- Semiconductors
- Elon Musk's predictions
- The Clarity Act
- US Treasury yields
- Jerome Powell
- Bitcoin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzzFBvzONBo

2026-01-14 14:03:36 UTC

How different forms of "money" actually work over time:
Government fiat currency: Pay more, get less.
Gold: Pay about the same, get about the same.
Bitcoin: Pay less, get more.
--------
Choose your savings vehicle and financial ruler wisely.

2026-01-13 20:20:24 UTC

Silver looking the most technically overbought at the moment.
Time for market participants to rotate?
🤔
https://blossom.primal.net/2f786e6839d1b3066cee5d47187e8783f41206b5332c0055f2c109e296cd35f3.png

2026-01-10 23:40:49 UTC

A fantastic and highly troubling article by Craig Tindale.
Strong recommend.
Shout-out to @nprofile…rn6q for the heads up to read it.
https://substack.com/inbox/post/183505662?r=orbm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true&triedRedirect=true

2026-01-10 20:45:37 UTC

Reality is starting to bite.
“While the West financializes deficits, rivals industrialize surpluses.”
- Aris Roussinos

2026-01-08 17:39:04 UTC

“The marginal cost of intelligence is trending toward zero.“
- Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross

2026-01-08 17:22:24 UTC

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Don’t fight the Fed(eral government), as they continue picking winners and losers. 👀
#nevent1q…kx09

2026-01-07 17:35:32 UTC

Suspected US foreign policy "interests" for possible/probable intervention (in no particular order) by 2028:
1. Venezuela ✅
2. Colombia
3. Cuba
4. Greenland
5. Panama
6. Brazil
7. Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta
8. Guyana
9. Nicaragua
10. Bolivia
11. Multiple Caribbean island nations

2026-01-06 16:09:17 UTC

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lol… if this is the Big League, I don’t want to play

2026-01-06 16:06:52 UTC

I don’t come here as often these days, but it’s sad to see the rapidly rising large number of imposter accounts here on nostr.
Yet another reason to spend less time on social media.