FTB

Full Time #Bitcoin: Node operator, miner, BTC only angel investor/VC, optech reader, sat stacker, freak, dirtbag, pleb, resident TSLA shill, stackchain 593 1754

Public Key

npub1h8z77d0mqx8nreltfxzhw5vgv2d2yvfvn7p8nz6ugtafk9ly9tas4zta38

NIP-05 Address

[email protected]

Profile Code

nprofile1qqstn300xhasrre3ul45npth2xyx9x4zxykflqne3dwy975mzljz47cpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgfrz3ek

Publishing to

nos.lol

relay.primal.net

relay.damus.io

Author Public Key

npub1h8z77d0mqx8nreltfxzhw5vgv2d2yvfvn7p8nz6ugtafk9ly9tas4zta38

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Last Notes

2026-02-09 13:47:02 UTC

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I think it’s probably over after that. Too big of a V in the chart, but we’ll see!

2026-02-05 19:46:05 UTC

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100%

2026-02-05 16:42:02 UTC

I'm now completely convinced that this entire drawdown - which may have been started by API problems on Binance, but if it hadn't have been that it would have been something else - is all about liquidating bitcoin backed loans.
It's a terrible incentive sitting out there in the market. A HUGE pot of bitcoin that is suddenly up for grabs at LOWER prices. And this world is full of rich people who want our coins.
If you needed liquidity above $100k you had two options, sell or take a loan out. Of course there were lots of companies eager to sell you the dream of getting liquidity without selling your bitcoin, unfortunately that's all that is, a dream.
We've been sold a lie that bitcoin is the best possible collateral because it's liquid 24/7! Well sure that makes it amazing...FOR THE LENDER! For the borrower it just puts a target on your back.
You thought you were a hardcore hodler, but you just posted your coins for sale at $58k! And guess what? There are buyers who want that deal!
We're going to go down until every reasonably accessible bitcoin being held as collateral is freed up and sold to someone that ain't one of us! If you avoided taking out a loan, congrats! If somehow you have some dry powder now, amazing, you deserve these cheap sats.
If you're looking at liquidation even anywhere in the 50's, I'd consider cutting your losses and closing your loan with collateral. If you can get your margin call price into the 40's I would hope you would be safe, but who knows. There are no rules in a truly free market.

2025-06-06 19:58:27 UTC

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And here’s a more bullish version:
1st I asked Grok to figure out the average daily return for Metaplanet since they adopted the bitcoin treasury strategy, this came out to just over 1.4% per day.
2nd I asked Grok to assume that trend would continue for the next 100 trading days. Stock price at the end of the 100 days assuming trend continues: 6961 JPY or $48.03
3rd assume they issue the 555M shares linearly over those 100 trading days (5.55M shares per day)
4th assume BTC increases from $105k to $150k linearly over those 100 trading days.
5th give me the total BTC they would own at the end of the 100 trading days: 133,188 BTC
6th tell me what date 100 TSE trading days is from today: October 1st or 2nd
7th give me a new mNAV/share price chart:
https://blossom.primal.net/2334fd9f1130e75bf3c8c52c66d285ff504523f397c6cce3cf543b2e91d5af16.jpg

2025-06-06 19:57:18 UTC

Some Metaplanet analysis of the plan they announced today.
Here’s the “conservative” version:
759M shares already issued, another 555M on the way, so ~73% dilution (per page 7 of the deck released today). Likely all issued in less than 100 trading days (per page 20 - assuming a modest increase in volume). At an average purchase price of $115k per BTC that'll give them an additional ~57k BTC at the current stock price of ~$11.70 for a total of around 66k BTC worth about $7.6B.
With a new total of 1.3B shares outstanding here's a chart showing the stock price at various mNAV's:
https://blossom.primal.net/dc66ccb29e792605f523407fe888fb896e32f2683f984bf31cc67a22728a018a.jpg

2025-06-05 18:25:08 UTC

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Here's something interesting.
I was trying to steel man my argument in favor of $STRK, and my belief that there will be near zero incentive to convert and I came across an interesting argument. $STRK doesn't have an options market. So if you could imagine a future where $MSTR is $10k per share, and $STRK is $1k + a small kicker for the 0.8% yield and liquidation preference, someone sitting on a large position of $STRK that's basically yielding nothing could convert to $MSTR and sell covered calls against the position for a much higher effective yield.
So that begs the question: can you launch an options market on top of a preferred stock. Answer according to Grok: yes, but it's so far been very rarely done.
So if they don't do it, I do think you'll have a conversion bleed over time of people willing to give up the liquidation preference (which won't be worth much if @Strategy is the largest company on earth anyway), in favor of the higher yield that selling covered calls can offer. And by that point I think @Strategy would love for people to convert, so maybe they're incentivized to not launch the options market. Something to think about!
#nevent1q…dtw9

2025-06-05 03:53:09 UTC

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And also that means my effective yield calculation is wrong. $8 per share on $69.2 is 11.56% not the 8% I listed in the original post! 🤦‍♂️

2025-06-05 01:36:05 UTC

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Elon and STRK
All I could think about today.

2025-06-05 01:33:11 UTC

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However being back on here I’ve zapped more than I’ve been zapped, so not sure this is a very effective scam!

2025-06-05 01:30:10 UTC

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I’m just reposting my tweets to get some zaps! Everyone’s a scammer

2025-06-05 01:16:06 UTC

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$69.2 not $99.2 in paragraph 3, apologies!

2025-06-05 01:02:32 UTC

A few thoughts about $STRK, obvious to some, but I know a lot of people don't follow this so closely and I think it's potentially a very valuable tool in the bitcoiner toolkit.
$STRK pays an $8 qualified dividend per share per year. $STRK can be converted 10:1 into $MSTR when $MSTR is over $1000 per share. At that point the convertibility is therefore worth $100. With $MSTR at $2000 the convertibility is worth $200, etc.
At the moment $STRK is priced at $107 and $MSTR at $378. IMO this means the conversion is priced at $37.8 and the remaining $99.2 is based on the $8 per share yield (effectively an 8% yield).
As $MSTR goes up well over $1000, $STRK will trade in lockstep with $MSTR. AKA as $MSTR goes from $2500 to $5000 $STRK will go from $250 to $500 + a small premium for the $8 per share coupon and the fact that $STRK is higher in the capital stack of @Strategy than $MSTR.
If $BTC does a 5x to $500k you could imagine that $MSTR might do a ~10x to $4000 and in that case $STRK would do a 4x to $400 (plus the aforementioned premium). As $STRK goes up it still maintains its $8/share qualified dividend, but that equates to an effectively lower yield of 2% in the $400 example. So the portion of $STRK that's priced based on it's yield will go down as $MSTR goes up.
So in however long it takes $BTC to go to $500k would you rather get a 5x with $BTC and 0 counterparty risk, a 4x with $STRK and an $8/share coupon (and counterparty risk), or a 10x with $MSTR and no coupon and counterparty risk. Also keep in mind that once $MSTR is over $1000, $STRK's performance should match $MSTR's (aka outperform bitcoin's), but the yield will be much lower by then. That's my outlook, do with it as you will, No recommendations here, not financial advice, just some thoughts.

2025-06-05 01:01:51 UTC

Nothing Stops This Train?
Don't Trust, Verify
Elon Musk in 3 acts.
Act 1:
In 2021 Elon tried to appease the Democrats by paying the largest tax bill of all time - quite a bit more than he actually needed to pay. He verified that you could not tax your way out of the overwhelming debt problem.
Act 2:
In 2024/25 Elon tried to appease the Republicans by campaigning for Trump, forming DOGE, and suggesting a narrow possible path where we could cut our way out of the debt problem. He verified that the right only gives lip service to fiscal conservatism.
Act 3:
Elon has been well aware of libertarian/bitcoiner arguments for a long time. But he needed to verify that in fact the system could not be fixed from the inside, he has now done that. I believe Elon will now turn towards the only actual solution to the problem - Bitcoin.

2025-03-29 00:26:11 UTC

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Just realized I uploaded an earlier version, missing a couple lines, here’s the full one.
Got the ”wen” right originally!
https://m.primal.net/Pwfi.jpg

2025-03-28 02:05:02 UTC

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Ahh I listened to the boostagrams not the shout outs! Yeah that was great!

2025-03-28 01:14:03 UTC

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Just relistened to 232 and 233 and didn’t hear anything. Which #?

2025-03-27 21:22:37 UTC

My ode to @nprofile…k4x3 @nprofile…e3jm @nprofile…vtcc @nprofile…5725 from last week. Saved here for posterity, hope you all enjoy, I wasted an hour on this!
Marty Bent, the palindrome freak,
Block height 888888, Bitcoin’s latest peak.
Marty Jones, our tinfoil thoughts align,
But why do mirrored digits blow your mind?
Thought I’d celebrate with a boost and ask a simple question
Is this even free country? Surely the clown world is descending?
And wen sausage ODELL? No word back,
Ten31 tribe, proud part of the pack.
I think we’re going to win just like #FreeRoss
We got a good thing going like Al’s Lacrosse
Resident TSLA shill never bothered me.
But you can also call me a freak, dirtbag, pleb, or just FT₿

2025-03-07 15:48:24 UTC

"The Executive Order can just be undone by the next administration"
Ok, we'll make sure we get right on that sometime in the next 12 years 🙃🤡. YOU'RE ALLOWED TO BE HAPPY PEOPLE! YOU'RE ALLOWED TO WIN!

2025-03-07 00:16:32 UTC

I’ve never seen a potential known news event (even if the market doesn’t really think it’s going to happen, it’s still known that it might) move the price sustainably.
I have seen news move the price in a positive direction, but it’s always surprise news (like when Tesla announced out of nowhere that they bought).
However I think the surprise could be a change to the tax treatment of bitcoin which could have wild implications, this has been talked about a little, but would still be a surprise to the market I think. Let’s say hypothetically they announce that they’re going to get rid of cap gains on bitcoin and treat it as a currency. I think you see 3 phases:
Phase 1 where everybody suddenly stops selling and we go up only until it’s implemented.
Phase 2 once it’s implemented where we have massive volatility of people resetting their cost basis, OG’s selling, and the start of a huge rotation into bitcoin.
Phase 3 where we just see the rotation as the market realizes that bitcoin isn’t just the best performing asset, but also the only one with tax free gains.
I think the best we’re going to get re: SBR is some sort of announcement or proposed legislation that will maybe cause a brief spike that will be sold off. It’s hugely bullish, but I think bitcoin is very bad at pricing in future events, just not enough liquidity, won’t be priced in until they actually start buying.

2025-03-04 20:28:11 UTC

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Enjoyed it, but I hope you didn’t sell all your MSTR calls! What a move today.

2025-02-02 13:03:20 UTC

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🤝

2025-01-19 14:34:07 UTC

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Stay humble stack sats, more important today then possibly ever before

2024-11-26 22:29:22 UTC

Regarding the QQQ snapshot on Friday, it appears unfortunately that Saylor fucked up, and now they're going to go in with a much lower market cap than they could have. Of course this is all in hindsight and there were a lot of unknowable things that happened between last Monday and now so I'm not throwing stones, it'll all be fine, but it could have been better!
After last Mondays ATM announcement it was pretty clear to see he was going to keep pushing hard at least through to this snapshot if not for as long as the bull market rages on. We had two consecutive weeks of increasing ATM usage both at about 7% of the weekly trading volume. So going into this Monday I and many others saw that the volume last week was insane, and we imagined that it was certainly possible that another 7% of that volume was ATM usage. For whatever reason it seems that wasn't the case. In fact as long as their liquidity keeps rising they should be able to keep increasing the ATM's maybe linearly...or maybe parabolically.
My best guess is they were waiting until Friday to really hit the ATM hard in preparation for weekend stacking. Instead they were caught off guard by the Citron hit piece which combined with the known convert shorting really turned the momentum 180 degrees. At that point they either hit the ATM to try and get what they still could, or more likely they had done a couple billion before then and we're saving the remaining 5 for Thursday/Friday which then got cancelled with the momentum shift. I still believe the 100k coin buy was the plan, but the plan got curtailed.
So now we're about 37% off the highs and the snapshot is in 1.5 trading days, and obviously momentum is bearish as hell. So my bear case is they'll be lucky to close Friday above $300/share. I guess my base case is we stay around here, maybe creep up to $375. But there is still a bull case...
What could they do to try and shift momentum in a hurry in time for Friday? Well barring some major bullish announcement outside of their control all they can do is announce another buy! Volume was still very high over the last two days, and I could easily see Saylor continuing to tap the ATM hard and making a surprise announcement tomorrow morning and/or Friday morning. Even if it doesn't cause the momentum to shift it'll still likely increase the market cap by increasing the share count (as long as we stay flat or even go down less than the issuance). So almost 50M shares have traded in the last two days, I'd say the bull case is 7% of that sold by Saylor (3.5M shares), maybe at an average price of $400 is $1.4B or about 15,000 bitcoin. Not bad for a midweek smash buy.
At the end of the day their strategy does not rely on getting into any indexes. It's just extra fuel on the fire. More fuel, bigger fire, but this sucker is burning bright no matter what.
Anyway, I feel somewhat compelled to bridge the bitcoiner and MSTR worlds, which used to be one and the same, but very much no longer are. Hope someone got something out of this.
Disclosure: LONG AF

2024-11-26 13:44:38 UTC

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My plan as well, however I don’t intend to do that until they’re a multi trillion dollar company 😉

2024-11-26 02:11:45 UTC

$MSTR is not a Ponzi, fiat is the ponzi, MicroStrategy is just going to make this obvious to the rest of the world. Imagine the bewilderment of the world when they’re the largest company on earth and all they do is keep buying bitcoin!

2024-11-26 02:07:03 UTC

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Fiat is the Ponzi! MSTR is just going to make this obvious to the rest of the world! Can’t you just imagine the bewilderment of the masses as the largest company on earth literally just buys Bitcoin. A glorious day, can’t wait.

2024-11-25 14:58:13 UTC

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Hard to imagine, but I think he’s just going to go harder and harder. The 210/210 may be next….

2024-11-25 05:16:28 UTC

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Wow, you’re a piece of work dude. I never told anyone to invest in MSTR. I merely explained (apparently over your head) that they are operating at a much faster and accelerating pace than they have over the last 4 years. And that they’re single handedly going to push the Bitcoin price quite a bit higher if they continue.
But as I said, since you’re not short your opinion is meaningless drivel, and you’re not worth my time. Post your short when you put it on and I’ll happily talk to you again, until then fuck off.

2024-11-25 04:24:22 UTC

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Put your money where your mouth is. Short it and post your portfolio. If you can’t do that your commentary is worth less than a shit stained dollar bill.

2024-11-25 04:18:19 UTC

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The music stops when fiat dies. There are 3 phases.
Phase one: acquire as much bitcoin as possible while it’s available for sale in large quantities.
Phase two: continue to borrow money (speculative attack) to buy back the stock further increasing bitcoin per share.
Phase three: post hyperbitcoinization. Become Berkshire Hathaway type conglomerate, buying real productive businesses that are able to produce an sats/flow (aka are profitable in Bitcoin) and continue to increase Bitcoin per share that way.
Forever Laura!

2024-11-25 04:09:28 UTC

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Wow you’re clueless dude. First of all if you read my post the flywheel depends on ATM issuance far more than the convertible bonds. Second, none of the debt is encumbered, so there is no unwinding. It’s dated years in the future at very low/no interest which the software business can more than support. If Bitcoin has a 5 year+ bear market and the debt isn’t eligible to be refinanced or converted into shares than there could conceivably be a scenario where they are forced to sell some BTC to pay back some debt. This is priced in to the stock right now buddy! Because it has a near zero percent chance of ever happening! Finally the market for their convertible bonds is huge if you actually take some time to learn about them. They’re the best performing bonds in the world and bond funds are desperate for yield. Can’t wait for your brain to melt when they issue a negatively yielding bond sometime soon! Market wants their debt so bad they’ll pay Saylor to let them have the privilege of giving him money! Mark my words.

2024-11-24 04:41:13 UTC

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Thanks man you too! Quite a difference two months can make huh?

2024-11-24 03:20:10 UTC

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Technically $21B this time around. But in reality…there are no limits

2024-11-24 02:21:06 UTC

I do believe we have entered the so called suddenly phase. What’s changed, well believe it or not, it’s not the ETF’s, or the options on top of them. It’s not the red wave, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or the supposed nation state announcement happening at the Bitcoin Mena conference. All of that is insanely bullish and absolutely fuel on the fire. But we’re in the suddenly phase because of MicroStrategy.
If you’ve been following $MSTR as closely as I and others in the MSTR True North community have this won’t be news to you, but I know many of my humble sat stacking pleb, freak, and dirtbag friends don’t realize that the MicroStrategy strategy has evolved and Saylor has pushed the pedal straight through the floorboard. The past 4 years he’s been building a flywheel, and now it’s finally spinning.
If you want a full breakdown I can’t recommend listening to Saylor’s presentation during the most recent earnings call enough, he put all the cards on the table. Laid bare everything (and more) that the MSTR community had pieced together over the past months.
I’ll try and keep it simple, but the 21/21 plan was the starting gun, it was the announcement that there were no longer any training wheels on and that the flywheel was spinning up. Since then the company has issued 7% of the weekly trading volume via ATM offerings each week. The more liquidity the stock is trading + the more the stock goes up = the more $ that 7% has gotten them = the larger their bitcoin purchases have been. Now this has only happened for two weeks so far, but this past week they were the most liquid stock in the entire stock market. We’ll find out likely on Monday or Tuesday if he’s made it 3 in a row. My guess is it’s highly likely and if so we’ll see a ~100,000 bitcoin buy probably announced on Monday morning. 70 billion funded from ATM sales and 30 billion from convertible debt. It could be 200,000 next week and 400,000 the week after that. Higher stock price = more liquidity = more ATM sales = more bitcoin = higher stock price = more liquidity….get it? There are not nearly enough bitcoin available below $100k to keep this up. Things are accelerating extremely rapidly. This supposed sell wall is an ant hill in the face of the kind of buying MSTR is doing.
This is the main gist of the story but if you’d like to dive deeper there’s plenty more to it. Upcoming index inclusions (nitrous in the flywheels engine), convertible debt, other future debt instruments. It all points to an undeniable reality. MicroStrategy is now single handedly forcing the suddenly phase (aka hyperbitcoinization) to begin. Add on all of the other massively bullish catalysts on the horizon and it’s quite clear, DON’T SELL YOUR BITCOIN!

2024-11-23 22:57:39 UTC

SUDDENLY

2024-11-20 13:35:05 UTC

Good morning everyone, meetup location has been changed to BarWhiskey in downtown Jefferson City!
We will have the entire back room available from 6-8. Sorry for the last second notice.
https://www.meetup.com/mid-mo-meetup-group/events/304529715/
@npub1qny…95gx help me out with a retweet! Don’t want to strand the freaks!

2024-10-31 03:09:35 UTC

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There’s no real secret, but the game has changed and if you want to understand how you must watch the call

2024-10-31 00:43:29 UTC

Every single one of you needs to watch the MSTR earnings call and pay attention to it very carefully. Please.

2024-10-26 17:12:11 UTC

Approached a guy wearing a Bitcoin shirt at the farmers market an hour ago.
After a few mins chatting and talking about my meetup he says “wait, you guys aren’t bitcoin maxis are you?”
“Yeah of course we are”
“But what about (insert shitcoin I can’t remember)”
“Never heard of it”
“What?! Let me tell you about it, they’re decentralizing broadband!”
“I’m good, nice talking to you”
FUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKK

2024-10-17 18:00:24 UTC

@npub1guh…6hjy the SpaceX super heavy booster is more like a 20 story building, not 4!
Take the kids and drive down to Starbase, TX! Record RHR with 10 starships in the background!

2024-09-18 03:38:52 UTC

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Inb4 “you’re friends with terrorists!?”
Jokes ppl

2024-09-18 03:35:47 UTC

Does ifixit have repair guides for pagers? Asking for a friend.
The next teardown is going to be 🔥!

2024-09-17 03:59:54 UTC

I’ll take a shitcoiner over a nocoiner any day.

2024-09-11 16:36:13 UTC

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Sort of felt like you were talking to me at the beginning of the Matt Dines pod. Although I know there are many like me. You ain’t wrong, good advice in there! Keep stacking.

2024-09-08 17:29:41 UTC

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I miss the philosoraptor

2024-09-08 00:45:26 UTC

Might not have quite been true when I first posted this, but feels true now. Better early than late!
#note1kha…yfag

2024-09-07 22:46:33 UTC

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https://m.primal.net/KinF.jpg
https://m.primal.net/KinG.png

2024-09-07 15:30:58 UTC

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On Twitter I’m a permabull, always have been, always will be. And generally that is what I actually believe deep down.
But here in Nostr I feel like I can be a little more nuanced. The bullishness never left, it was more like just sharing some side effects/inner thoughts that accompany the bullishness. Sounds stupid writing it out, but whatever. It’s more just an acknowledgment that hodling is a hard road, and carries a mental burden. It’s still without a doubt the right thing to do and the only path.

2024-09-07 15:02:34 UTC

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Lol, we all have our moments. Don’t worry I ain’t never gonna stop stacking sats

2024-09-07 14:59:25 UTC

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Faces have not been melted since 2017.

2024-09-06 20:28:53 UTC

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Found myself in an odd mood earlier, and felt like sharing. Have received many nice messages since. 10/10, would post again.

2024-09-06 16:19:49 UTC

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Love this, thanks for sharing

2024-09-06 15:47:12 UTC

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https://m.primal.net/KgwL.png

2024-09-06 15:39:37 UTC

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100%

2024-09-06 15:38:55 UTC

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Best I can do is 33 more years.
I mean of course I’m never selling. And you’re right, particularly about the travel, my kids hate traveling.
The home, on some land, living a pretty different homesteadesque lifestyle is probably what gets to me more. Because that I see as an improvement to daily life. But that’s in my head, not theirs, they’re very happy right where we are because it’s all they know. Thanks buddy.

2024-09-06 15:33:11 UTC

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Certainly the right answer, and to some extent I definitely do think of it that way, but impossible (at least for me) to not also see the investment case. Something to work on.

2024-09-06 15:25:31 UTC

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I'm nothing if not self aware for whatever that's worth.

2024-09-06 15:14:27 UTC

This is a rough cycle. Mentally as far as I'm concerned we haven't had a a bull market since 2017. 7 years of meaningless chop ....as always there's light at the end of the tunnel, but just when I think we're reaching the end, we round another corner.
Not sure if other hodlers are like me, but I find it difficult to live in the moment. I do my best, but it's almost as if my life is on hold until we have a raging bull market. There are places I want to travel, a home I want to build, but instead I'm stacking and waiting, and the years are going by.
My first child was born around the last bull market, I've spent the majority of their life obsessed with bitcoin, stacking sats, and waiting for our "real life" to start. I still think I've been a good husband and father, but I know I could be better. Unable to ever fully be present, that nagging hope of a better future always in the back of my mind.
As bitcoin cascades down today in yet another liquidation wick, I can't help but reflect on the past. Perhaps we're all destined to be Moses, wandering the desert for 40 years, the imperfect saviors of our individual tribes. We'll be remembered, but only our children will ever reach the promise land. Could be worse I suppose. I still don't think that's very likely, I think we very well might be rounding that final corner of the tunnel, but I'm trying to come to terms with the fact that that might not be true. Perhaps there's another 33 years of wandering.

2024-09-05 23:09:09 UTC

@npub1qny…95gx
https://m.primal.net/KgBt.jpg

2024-08-29 12:47:44 UTC

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I’m 99.5% buy and hodl long term in cold storage. 0.5% gay options trader.

2024-08-29 12:40:29 UTC

Just a reminder, your dumbass going leveraged long literally causes the price to go down. This directly delays hyperbitcoinization, causing unnecessary human suffering, thus is morally bankrupt.
If you must gamble on the bitcoin price use something correlated like MSTR options. Getting rekt on those only affects you.

2024-08-29 00:52:40 UTC

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It’s complete insanity, definitely something wrong with me, but doctors have been useless.

2024-08-28 02:15:41 UTC

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Thanks man! I got the invite to the thing on the 12th, see you there?

2024-08-28 01:53:57 UTC

Almost choked to death for like the 5th time earlier today. Fuckin hell, chew your food friends (also I have a narrow esophagus I think). Grateful to be here 🧡

2024-08-28 01:46:42 UTC

I apologize for not respecting 58k gang. Clearly more to it than I realized.

2024-08-14 05:08:52 UTC

Several years ago I bet @npub1qny…95gx @npub1qqq…ntu2 and @npub1jkm…crvd that there would be a full node running on Mars by the end of the decade. This has given me renewed confidence that I am indeed going to win that bet. Godspeed Chun!
https://m.primal.net/JzAN.jpg

2024-05-07 14:45:20 UTC

Introducing the off grid bitcoin CyberMiner ™️
Powered by GREEN energy with zero emissions!
Thanks Elon! Network secured!
https://m.primal.net/IEKi.mov

2024-04-25 19:47:45 UTC

Foundry just found 7 blocks in a row. With just under 29% of network hashrate the odds of that happening are about 0.016%. Neat
https://m.primal.net/HzsU.jpg

2024-04-24 19:33:43 UTC

Guess they weren’t spooks after all

2024-04-24 12:07:40 UTC

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I really miss you bud.

2024-04-24 03:40:43 UTC

Promising myself to post on nostr at least once per day for the next seven days. Gotta break this addiXion. Hold me accountable!

2024-03-14 11:22:34 UTC

Anyone ever notice how the bitcoin price moves according to my local weather? Think I need to start a paid group!

2024-03-13 11:55:54 UTC

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https://x.com/punterjeff/status/1767795850766700685?s=46&t=V27jJ5Ixsb9ZMB1SrtddYA
Watch this if you’re curious where this might be going. Staggering.

2024-03-13 11:53:23 UTC

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https://m.primal.net/HkPm.jpg

2024-03-13 04:27:57 UTC

Anyone posting a lot about MSTR on Nostr? Main thing keeping me on Twitter these days.
In case you haven’t heard MSTR is not just a bitcoin proxy, it’s potentially in the early innings of an epic squeeze that’s going to make GME look like a wet fart.
Bitcoin + low float + cheap debt + SP500 inclusion + short squeeze + gamma squeeze + many other things. Completely unique situation in market history.
Obligatory: most people should just hold spot bitcoin, this is overly risky and degenerate.

2024-03-12 18:38:09 UTC

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Sure, trust me, I’ll take it! Just feels like a weighed down balloon. Only letting us go up so fast.
Since my post, Grayscale announced their new $BTC ETF. Should lift some of the weight once they get it approved.
Just hate how in control they are at the moment.

2024-03-12 14:30:27 UTC

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Yeah exactly. I think that Blackrock (or maybe it’s the AP’s?) is intentionally killing Grayscale. Freeing up the coins, shorting it to oblivion, only letting the price go up so fast.

2024-03-12 13:00:53 UTC

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If it’s actual naked shorting then I’m not sure that counts as efficient. Bullying! Short them into the ground and never had to cover the short. Not necessarily a bad thing long term, but knee capping us for the moment.

2024-03-12 12:41:36 UTC

Good morning.
What’s to stop tradfi institutions from naked shorting GBTC to force outflows and free up coins while staying delta neutral by going long a different etf?
No one talking about this, but I’m pretty sure it’s happening. AlthoughI wouldn’t be surprised if I have some details wrong. I do not buy that this is all bankruptcy liquidations or individuals rotating to lower fee etfs.
Outflows are nearly a perfect match to Blackrock inflows every day.

2024-03-07 15:29:17 UTC

GOOD MORNING!

2024-03-07 04:25:08 UTC

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Who’s closest?

2024-03-06 18:59:45 UTC

Really meant to finally make a GM post this morning, fucked it up again.
Good afternoon?

2024-03-06 04:54:45 UTC

Anyone else whisper sweet nothings into my solo mining S9 hoping it’ll find a block before the halving?
Just me?

2024-03-06 04:37:25 UTC

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On a long enough time frame it’s too damn complicated for me to fully wrap my head around.
I.e. MSTR can become a fiat black hole and buy every bitcoin available on the market….but then what? If there are no coins available, then they can start buying back their stock, shrink the float even more, $/share keeps going up. But then what?
I suppose all your models are destroyed and bitcoin goes to the moon, the dollar dies, mstr is the largest company on earth.
Government pressure surely could stop Saylor from continuing the plan I suppose. But that doesn’t stop bitcoin…but hence why people going all in MSTR are foolish. Trusted third parties are security holes and there are a lot of trusted third parties in tradfi.
That game is rigged and I will not be surprised one iota if they try and take MSTR behind the shed the same way they did GME.

2024-03-06 03:26:32 UTC

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I’m at less than 1% but there’s a real chance it does go to 10’s of thousands. Worth the punt. If not it should at least mostly keep up with BTC

2024-03-06 02:08:19 UTC

Speculation:
OG dumps 1000 coins at the top.
OG goes mega leveraged short at the same time.
OG scoops up way more than 1000 coins after leverage wipe.
OG proves OG’s are still in control of this market when they want to be.
Just a guess, big if true!

2023-12-01 02:27:29 UTC

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I’ve got some long term option contracts, no shares.

2023-11-30 15:02:25 UTC

Prior to this buy $MSTR held 158,400 #bitcoin and had 14,221,000 shares outstanding. Giving each share equivalent ownership of ~.01113 BTC.
Now there are 15,410,588 shares outstanding with each having the equivalent ownership of ~.01132 BTC.
This is a +1.7% increase in the bitcoin holdings per share.
This is NOT dilution. Few understand!
https://x.com/saylor/status/1730226879125160426?s=46&t=V27jJ5Ixsb9ZMB1SrtddYA

2023-11-11 14:58:08 UTC

To all my prepper inclined friends out there, get yourself a PCP (Pre Charged Pneumatic) air rifle. No KYC in most states - not considered firearms. Can buy suppressors for them too, which are not NFA regulated (labeled for airgun use only), can buy off the internet, ship to your house. I usually use Airguns of Arizona.
.177 or .22 will handle anything up to a raccoon no problem, can get bigger calibers for bigger game.
Dirt cheap to shoot, quiet as a mouse. Don’t get me wrong you need firearms too if they’re an option for you, but a PCP is such a wonderful tool.
Favorites:
Cheap option - Umarex Notos
Expensive - BRK Ghost
I like MTC Optics, made for airguns. Zero eye relief prism sight is my favorite but they’ve got traditional riflescopes too.
Air source - can use a PCP compressor, hand pump, or scuba tank. I have a cheap compressor, but good to keep a hand pump available just in case. Scuba tank is easiest if you have a scuba shop near you.
JSB Hades Pellets (or the FX branded version) https://image.nostr.build/8ec8b5c9f7a9644bff415357f0f828d7b72aa200b85a2ce771b6a0569bb51966.jpg

2023-11-11 00:53:38 UTC

Who would have thought that the next great bitcoin conflict post Blocksize Wars wouldn’t be covenants, ordinals, or drivechains, but the Israeli-Gaza conflict!
Fix the money, fix the world, it’s the only way.

2023-11-09 22:12:58 UTC

Mempool

2023-11-08 03:37:22 UTC

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Tell me everything

2023-11-07 17:52:15 UTC

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Check out Icon post bull market.
Icon4x4.com

2023-11-07 15:20:08 UTC

.223 back in stock at Fenix Ammunition.
Affiliate link: http://rwrd.io/rn13bkj?c
Thank you and you’re welcome

2023-11-07 13:29:33 UTC

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I’m Jewish and despite my best efforts to be unbiased and anti-state I usually fall in favor of Israel.
I find any historical claim on either side to the land to be ridiculous. We are where we are at this point. Israel has won many military conflicts, offered many peace deals. Hammas isn’t interested in negotiating. I also think the British used the Jews to take care of their dirty work.
We would have been better off in the Congo. But here we are, what is Israel supposed to do when Hammas says there is no negotiation possible and they are hell bent on the destruction of Israel?
It’s a tragedy, but the only way this ends is the destruction of Hammas or the destruction of Israel. These are extremists.
I do not understand why no Arab countries will take Palestinian refugees. There’s a lot I don’t understand. I also listened to Kushner on Lex Friedman and it seemed like maybe there was a path to peace, but that’s been well and truly botched at this point.
Anyway, that’s my stream of thoughts, hope it helps. Looking forward to reading what you put out.

2023-09-11 04:49:51 UTC

So all FPPS pools (most of them) got screwed and had to pay miners almost double in tx fees today because of the 20BTC fee someone paid.
They won’t see any of that money but they have to pay out the rolling average fee for the whole network each day (past 144 blocks). Recent average has been ~30btc per day in fees, today it was 50.
Interesting attack vector. A malicious non-FPPS pool could self mine their own transactions with very high fees and put all the FPPS pools out of business. They might have to start filtering out these outliers, or more likely switch to PPS+ which would lead to pool consolidation.
PPS+ pools pay miners the average fees for the blocks they themselves mine. Safer for the pool, but most miners prefer FPPS because it eliminates more variance…unless the pool is big enough that their personal average is statistically equivalent to the FPPS average - hence the consolidation.
PPLNS pools (basically just Braiins at this point) are unaffected. Although it would have been very interesting to see What would have happened if they would have won that 26 BTC block. Can’t imagine there would be any chance the sender would be able to recover funds whereas Chun from F2Pool has already unilaterally offered to return the funds (and is presumably eating the higher FPPS fees as well).

2023-07-28 02:42:22 UTC

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All while using Coinbase as their own custodian. Wild

2023-07-25 03:43:48 UTC

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Get this man a hat!

2023-07-24 03:18:25 UTC

Ain’t it pretty, ok off to bed https://cdn.nostr.build/i/e94989b659b7c4b2f7402dfa1f3e792622b83624e195933ca7c3967ca4fff6cc.jpg

2023-07-23 19:30:43 UTC

🫣 #note1usr…t5pm