<unnamed>

Public Key

npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsy7nuzs3nf3lmx4e06n7k5crzwk7pr47c8l204f65azhcjz7hfdnqpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujucm4wfex2mn59en8j6gpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejs7e9s4l

Publishing to

relay.current.fyi

nostr.wine

Last Notes

2026-02-26 05:34:25 CET

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Is that why I hit my session and weekly limit so quickly?

2026-02-26 05:33:49 CET

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Amen sister!

2026-02-26 05:33:26 CET

So I’ve been using Claude code for 2-3 weeks…it’s kinda slow. I have an intel k series CPU with built in graphics but not a discreet GPU. I downloaded qwencode-next today. 50 GB model. Fits in ram. It’s too slow. Definitely slower than Claude where for my work I can issue 3-6 commands per hour as opposed to 1-2 running locally…
If I get a gpu, how much faster might it run? I have 64GB ram and a metric shit ton of 14GB/s NVME raid0 ssd swap space (640 GB).

2026-02-26 02:36:59 CET

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https://napavalleyfocus.substack.com/p/sunday-e-dition-looking-back-at-150
1875. Population this state hospital served was 1.5M.

2026-02-26 01:22:02 CET

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An amazing building. It seems population would be too small for such a building. What’s the conspiracy angle?

2026-02-24 23:13:09 CET

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Social shaming of miners will work better than temper tantrum soft forks. Also, you can set your node to blocks only mode, which I would argue is the best way to fight spam on an individual node level.

2026-02-24 19:42:44 CET

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Which fee are you setting? You are free to charge transaction relay fees to people submitting transactions to your node, though nobody does and AFAIK no node software supports that feature.
You can set a minimum transaction relay fee, but that fee is paid to miners, not to you. This filter is to help you optimize your view of the important part of the mempool. If you want to close your eyes and not see valid transactions in the mempool because it offends your sense of civic duty or morality, you can set it to any level or to filter on any criteria you’d like…you’re only degrading your network intelligence, which means your wallets might want to use too low a fee rate because it sees an empty mempool on your node (despite the fact that miner mempools are full of stupid crap that pay well).

2026-02-24 18:17:53 CET

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This is your logical fallacy. Think carefully about the cost and I think you’ll realize your argument is an emotional one, not a factual one.

2026-02-24 18:16:56 CET

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Simple. Let the most valuable use case win. Who gave you the right to unfairly cheap bitcoin monetary transactions? You want security with that money? Pay for it. If you won’t pay for it, then you don’t value money enough to use bitcoin as money.
It is my belief that money will be the most valuable use case for bitcoin. Eventually. If we make it. And if stupid people paying massively for useless data storage is what is needed to keep bitcoin secure until people are willing to pay for it for money use cases, so be it.
A better question is why do people think mitigated spam as bitcoin has had since the block size limit was introduced is a problem with real costs? These costs are less than the cost of bitcoin succeeding.

2026-02-24 18:13:00 CET

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Exactly. And donating masssively to security of the network for trivially inexpensive data storage is a good trade off.

2026-02-24 18:12:05 CET

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It will be a generous donation to the security of the network. One your descendants will loathe you for :)

2026-02-24 17:35:02 CET

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I see you place high value on distributed long term data storage with high availability. Most people don’t share your view and won’t pay such insanely high prices to keep bitcoin secure.
I did store my locker combination to a vanity address with no private key…I’m glad my combo started with a 2 and was only 6 digits. $120 to store 6 digits is way more than people would be willing to pay (remember, the costs are the fuel for bitcoin security).

2026-02-24 17:26:59 CET

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😂

2026-02-24 17:26:40 CET

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$30,000 for cloud storage of a single down-resolution sub megapixel photo is above market rates.
As far as storage drive costs, this is insignificant. Pretend you live in a world where bitcoin succeeds and fees are high and blocks are full of monetary transactions…this will require MUCH more of your node than a world where bitcoin hasn’t succeeded yet and is filled with op return data and still more than the more wasteful coded utxos that can never be spent.
You’ve got to put problems in perspective. It is a logical fallacy to think bitcoin can fail by spam but succeed by being fully used.

2026-02-24 17:13:11 CET

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Radiologists are known as the doctor’s doctor. We are the ones who make your doctor look like a super hero :)

2026-02-24 17:12:17 CET

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I had the chance to store a photo of my family on the blockchain. I chose not too…not because it was too expensive, it was only 0.5 bitcoin to do so, but because it seemed like spam.
So you tell me, is it too expensive to store data on chain?

2026-02-24 17:10:28 CET

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It’s a shame there are no consensus rules to protect bitcoin from spam…and if there are consensus rules to protect bitcoin from spam, we should tighten them so much that bitcoin can never do anything other than pay to public key hashes of a specific form. And those hashes must correspond to real private keys, so transactions need to prove key existence by disclosing pubkey so to prevent arbitrary data storage.
Oh, wait, spam isn’t an issue anymore because we have effective consensus rules that don’t unnecessarily restrict bitcoin use cases.
Not humble people tend to think they know what is best for bitcoin and that they have the right to determine how all humans must use it. Beware that little Nazi that lives in the heart of all of us; the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
I’m no spam enthusiast. But I am a spam ignorer, knowing it doesn’t really matter, even if continued to be done in the worst way possible.

2026-02-24 14:38:24 CET

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If bitcoin can’t out price data storage, it has a problem.

2026-02-24 01:57:09 CET

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Fancy math is just a more precise way to express ideas…but the ideas matter more than the math.

2026-02-24 01:29:42 CET

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Here’s is a carbon copy of history superimposed on power law support curve…if I had more time, I’d scale the second copy of price history to have bubbles peak along an exponential decay envelope.
https://image.nostr.build/adec367b4b1293865abe163f2e95ba1197baeab960f3a1e8215670256b19c803.jpg

2026-02-24 01:28:12 CET

What if we need more security than money itself can buy for bitcoin? I mean, what if people won’t pay enough for bitcoin transactions based on its money properties alone?
But because bitcoin isn’t only money, but rather programmable money, I suspect higher use cases will take up the slack…

2026-02-24 00:57:08 CET

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Murderous crybabies. They’re a little more dangerous than the regular type of crybaby.

2026-02-24 00:49:27 CET

It’s possible that bitcoin just becomes boring…SSDD parametric extrapolation courtesy of yours truly.
https://image.nostr.build/4500c90d61615672f5e31cea3a33f98bf81a5b885e778f81825323a18bda79a9.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/180cd130949edaee5fb37299e5ac7962026de8921870e9a450e1c558c5cd59d0.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/20af96009fca47553b7368a8bffe4f5ceef2728910d347a7eb576484567768c4.jpg

2026-02-24 00:26:41 CET

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If rational hopium, look at the bottom of the curve. The bottom ¼ or so of the data has a very consistent power law trend. The 50th percentile and up are unstable.

2026-02-23 22:57:44 CET

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Yup. Time sinks.

2026-02-23 22:57:03 CET

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I suspect that it’s possible that maybe it could be at least slightly more than nothing.
Strong work 💪

2026-02-23 22:55:43 CET

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If you ever need an opinion of a well trained radiologist, and almost certainly the first radiologist if not first physician in bitcoin, feel free to shoot me a DM.

2026-02-23 22:52:45 CET

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No. He just made it up.

2026-02-23 22:49:58 CET

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Any small group wanting to push bitcoin around will fail. And knots is the small group. Just like bcash. They’ve failed to make a compelling argument for almost all of their points and it shows.

2026-02-23 22:47:23 CET

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I’ll be that guy in the ground someday…

2026-02-23 22:39:58 CET

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This makes sense. Like a lot of sense.

2026-02-23 22:37:08 CET

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Good call. Let him dump. There aren’t an infinite number of such folks.

2026-02-23 22:33:23 CET

If you parameterize #Bitcoin bubbles, you can extrapolate in parameter space…I next want to Fourier transform price & look for major & minor bubble peaks because in parameter space two frequencies of bubbles could collide and mimic a trend to lengthening bubble plateaus. But that’ll have to wait a lil bit. https://github.com/bg002h/BitcoinPowerLawModelExtrapolation/blob/main/SP.py
https://image.nostr.build/4500c90d61615672f5e31cea3a33f98bf81a5b885e778f81825323a18bda79a9.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/180cd130949edaee5fb37299e5ac7962026de8921870e9a450e1c558c5cd59d0.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/20af96009fca47553b7368a8bffe4f5ceef2728910d347a7eb576484567768c4.jpg

2026-02-23 17:46:25 CET

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Oh, and extrapolation is done in parameter space: I fit the bubbles with three line segments (up, over, and down) and extrapolate how long and at what angle the up, over, and down line segments would be based on prior trends in parameter space.

2026-02-23 17:38:19 CET

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Same Stuff, Different Day. Extrapolate the last few bubbles to predict the next few.
This ignores harmonic bubble components which by eyeball seem to be obviously in the data set, which would massively throw off certain features (like the lengthening plateau phase might be a result of a smaller bubble wave overlapping the earliest beginnings of the main 2025 bubble , making it look like one long plateau)

2026-02-23 16:59:30 CET

As the great Plan B has taught us by through his wrong but useful stock to flow model “all models are wrong, but some are useful,” I’d like to throw my hat into this modeling ring. I don’t intend to be right, not any more than Plan B did, but I hope to be useful over a short time frame (which inarguably S2F was for anyone who wasn’t brain dead).
Anyhow, I’m calling it the SSDD model (same…stuff, yeah, stuff, different day). The idea behind it is that we parameterize prior bubbles to extrapolate what future bubbles might look like and when…I have it working for the canonical halving related bubbles, but there’s definitely some minor bubble action I haven’t captured.
Anyhow, here’s my best guess of the what future bitcoin price will be and it is simultaneously amazing and incredibly boring. Boring because the dominant feature of an elongating plateau phase…in this example I’m extrapolating over last 3 bubbles. The double bubble of 2013 has some of that minor bubble action that I don’t think belongs in major bubble territory…an alternative hypothesis would be we have minor bubbles moving through major bubbles and next bubble should have a shorter plateau phase, it just so happened that 2025 minor bubble started a little bit before the major bubble and made it look like 1 bubble with a long plateau.
Will it be accurate in either timing, up/down slopes or durations? Time will tell, but I predict it will become much harder to profit above Bitcoin price support line…I don’t think it will be as easy as the past (buy 6 months before halving and sell 18 months after halving).
https://image.nostr.build/1a74f9928e7420ca868c9bdb58945a09979094a49feaa67f6827895d860f7cdd.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/42fad179c07c24fdc56061bfc4aab98a9feb56a47c7d4c9349a327b1a0eef595.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/327057491c49c62c3bb018f11d878951dffe07d441eb50b67df24e675b033347.jpg

2026-02-23 01:52:33 CET

Bitcoin private key backup solutions have typically been either durable or easy. Easy typically meant digital and durable meant pounding or removing metal.
Why hasn’t digital been durable? Most digital media degrades over time. CD’s and DVD’s can last decades, and sometimes magnetic media like tape drives can last decades too, hard disk drive plates will still retain data after decades (usually), but might not work any more. But flash drives and SSD’s and SD cards are much more volatile…3-20 years, depending on how you use them…this includes your favorite hardware wallet!
@npub1cas…tzdc has bit rot fighting built in to their maintenance protocol. This is wisdom.
But what about more durable digital storage? Ever hear of M-DISC? As best I can tell, should be good for at least 100 years. I’m just finishing burning my first 25GB M-DISC Blu-ray now. It’s a bit overkill for bitcoin seed stuff, but the 4.7 GB DVD M-DISCs are hard to come by.

2026-02-22 03:28:31 CET

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21%? That’s slavery.

2026-02-22 03:12:54 CET

As much as I’m really happy for Peter schiff, it’s important to realize gold price has only gone up 100x over 93 years…and some of that time your were forbidden BY THE GOVERNMENT from owning gold bullion…
Now A 100x return is nice, it’s nothing compared to Bitcoin over a 20 year span.

2026-02-20 20:28:13 CET

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I’m on arch (cachy os), but not married to it.

2026-02-20 18:44:09 CET

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Mommy, look at all those poor people!
They found bitcoin later than your father, don’t be rude junior.

2026-02-20 18:42:39 CET

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The emergency economic powers act granting the president authority to regulate international commerce has far worse potential use cases than just tariffs…it is good that after only a mere 49 years the courts have decided to step in a begin to hint at a trimming of this power.
Unchecked power leads to bad things and the Supreme Court is too little, too late on this one.

2026-02-20 18:38:56 CET

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Iepa is an evil law in the first place. May it die a quick death.

2026-02-20 18:37:03 CET

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Is zorin OS all that interesting?
I like the idea of immutable distros and having a config file be my system, but some of the bitcoin software I use on Linux has to be manually compiled…so it’s not as simple as editing a config for me.

2026-02-20 18:29:08 CET

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Lesson is: some money isn’t worth the hassle

2026-02-20 18:28:46 CET

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Specifically: https://www.lopp.net/media-archive/uncensored/Vinay%20Gupta%20talks%20Ethereum,%20blockchain,%20and%20the%20Future!%20on%20Bitcoin%20Uncensored.mp4

2026-02-20 18:27:51 CET

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https://www.lopp.net/media-archive/uncensored/

2026-02-20 18:26:13 CET

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The seeds are real. And a really good idea should SHTF.

2026-02-20 18:25:43 CET

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Ah….this I believe. My mother-in-law got her bitcoin exchange account closed because she kept asking them to reset her password without bothering with that whole 2FA thing…she didn’t get it and they presumed she was a scammer and booted her.

2026-02-20 18:22:24 CET

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Gotta love AI

2026-02-20 18:21:46 CET

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Sounds like a scammer

2026-02-19 21:52:27 CET

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I don’t. Some kind of Planck allusion? That’s 100 tera quetta hashes per second…obviously those are performed in parallel, but even with concurrency, I’m not sure enough time exists for information to flow across a chip for even 1 step of a hash calculation…

2026-02-19 21:30:40 CET

This mental disorder is worth thinking about in a nuanced fashion: delusional psychotic disorder, persecutory subtype, with bizarre content.
https://image.nostr.build/37be516ccad6359ae82dbfc4cf411a4fff1e2526ae717d4796118efd660f848a.jpg

2026-02-19 21:29:25 CET

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From the DSM: psychotic disorders, delusional disorder, persecutory subtype with bizarre content
https://image.nostr.build/37be516ccad6359ae82dbfc4cf411a4fff1e2526ae717d4796118efd660f848a.jpg

2026-02-19 21:22:39 CET

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Give that girls some sats!

2026-02-19 21:18:20 CET

I know recent social programming forbids questioning victims, but martyrdom complexes are a thing…I wonder if there is a mental disorder that causes people to claim rich and famous harmed them…I suspect there are lots of frivolous lawsuits against rich and famous of a less intimate nature and I wonder how much, if any, of such a disorder explains some of the more bizarre allegations of late.

2026-02-19 20:25:30 CET

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He is in denial

2026-02-19 20:24:57 CET

There is a hidden blessing to having the US put out over $1T in interest payments: return of capital to private hands more quickly.

2026-02-19 20:23:54 CET

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I have much more in real bitcoin, but for the money I’m not allowed to have (like retirement funds), it’s the best I can do.

2026-02-19 16:01:52 CET

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Not at all, why? I did it in 2020, so I’m up 3x compared to bitcoin and 9x compared to investment.

2026-02-19 07:20:08 CET

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And they happen about every 4 years 😂

2026-02-19 06:55:30 CET

A lesson in over-fitting your data…sure, my model gets and R^2 of 0.9945 but it predicts jack…
https://image.nostr.build/3c3f0cd4ac689f72fa51b5fd2eb6fc6b155e4c7a752233b8beb1ae543bf8eac8.jpg

2026-02-19 06:52:16 CET

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Best response ever. Well done brother!

2026-02-17 23:21:26 CET

Maybe @npub12ct…c5ky #coldcard could have a practice mode where it functions only in testnet(s) mode and stores seed outside of secured memory and doesn’t enforce 13 pin attempts and allows time restrictions to be bypassed/adds a time forward button…
Converting newbies to hardcore coldcard users probably loses a lot of people at PIN step.

2026-02-17 22:45:37 CET

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I autoban autobeggars.

2026-02-17 21:16:14 CET

All models are wrong, or at least have wrong components. This fits much better than any power law model but what good is it if it doesn’t back test?
The power law trend is your friend.
https://image.nostr.build/a2adfc62423935f99d78e18a8c3bdb189c83488e328252713bb6747e48968b46.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/5facfcaf6593734c0a345f7d144699a429f7d9f1445ecc63a58afefd2570dc5d.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/2147f1c770726902d5e007f3d647eeb76165a77e496216caaf53468740702be8.jpg

2026-02-17 01:59:43 CET

I think I have found an idea for better bitcoin power law regression. Claude code seems to be choking on it though…

2026-02-16 06:19:32 CET

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Well, bitcointalk.org is still around :)

2026-02-16 01:49:46 CET

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At the end of the day, all I really accomplished was contributing to the coffers of some rather sketchy people…charity is the biggest scam :)

2026-02-16 01:41:07 CET

I made some more Bitcoin price history plots, but now with percentiles instead of confidence intervals…see full history and extrapolation, in what seems to me to be kinda over the top colors and black and white, with table.
@npub1r8m…wp63 you should have Matthew Mežinskis on the pod https://www.porkopolis.io @1basemoney on Twitter https://youtube.com/@1basemoney
https://image.nostr.build/8596283953986778ffc83bb26ec52f67234161f825b30ceba846c0e462417ec7.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/667700d2861e298fa85180c324d960a3a06117b7f97074d369e50cf0968c1ea5.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/a58088d3d919ddb977d4ea48a5abb1b1ac55fc0b09120b36ad512846c2b2cbc1.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/de84535c91aacf87de7a4681f1e147b016bb77ec01ac9bfab8f9de848c5bb103.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/6b858062a7efad0d998a2dab3e2e2ca6e5cc953de46848f09249644724b44c84.jpg

2026-02-16 00:06:43 CET

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Crime data is impossible to reason about. It’s all obfuscated to keep people from being able to make conclusions. I would not take a stand too firmly in any camp on crime, especially criminal violence with or without arms…

2026-02-16 00:03:56 CET

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Ultra wealthy bitcoiners do need proper education…You see, those that have held on for 15 years or so never intended to be rich and never thought about what they would do when they got there.
A great tip I got from a fellow OG (besides a bitcoin honey badger refrigerator magnet) was that nobody has a claim on your wealth, but if bitcoin has made you wealthy enough that you now own your own time, you owe bitcoin and the world some of your time. I agree with this.
When I retire, you’ll see me out there. I will find someway to give back.

2026-02-15 23:59:09 CET

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A long time ago I supported a singer whose name escapes me…Google then Bitcoin Jingle, powerful song…and then I threw a little coin at a guy named Johnny Barret (Ode to Satoshi, another great song)…I was hopeful more along the lines of these songs would take off, but the time wasn’t right. But maybe soon.

2026-02-15 23:56:46 CET

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You do realize what type of person is bitcoin rich, right? I’ve interacted with many of them and art/music/creativity is not what I would call their forté…

2026-02-15 23:52:09 CET

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White, hardworking, tax paying type. The kind dems used to not to try replace to win elections; pan-state replacement was a big blue mistake…the invention of migrants getting in on the scam themselves (as opposed to just politicians in blue states cashing in on serving all these new poor people) was also a big blue mistake.

2026-02-15 23:44:18 CET

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Red states would have left long ago without transfer payments.

2026-02-15 23:43:52 CET

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I agree that the people who are imported are a net drag; I’m talking about the future though…like 50-100 years from now.
Both political parties used to be in on the preservation of the union thing by turning a blind eye to autohuman trafficking…but now it’s a political issue for real, not for fake like it used to be (both sides permitted it, neither played a trump card with it)…
And Trump rejected the premise that we need more people entirely. And he might not actually be wrong. IF AI delivers vast productivity gains, that could satisfy government demand for more money from the people to keep their fiat house of cards from falling without spreading the burden over a larger number of people.

2026-02-15 23:17:09 CET

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It was like watching a scared child fall back on primitive neurological programming…I know she seems like an idiot, and I don’t doubt that she is, but what I saw was a form of stress induced neurologic dysfunction out of proportion to what the situation seemed to call for…my gut says her situation is very different than what it appears.

2026-02-15 23:15:26 CET

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And you wonder why democrats imported people? It is politically unpopular to import, and it used to be a thing republicans did that democrats hated but both sides back then knew it was a game, and neither tried to weaponize the process to guarantee either unending democrat power by upsetting the balance of red and blue states nor by actually cracking down on the problem and using it as a major campaign issue…
Why is Europe so F’d right now? They have borders and for decades they enforced them. As a result, they had to do a rush job importing new future tax payers to keep their funny money system going…and suddenly is much harder than gradually!

2026-02-15 23:10:45 CET

It’s little details like this that make me love the minds over at @npub12ct…c5ky : Forever Calculator mode…playful and brilliant and responsible and security conscious as well. @npub1az9…m8y8
Just waiting for the 2TB Coldcard Q Mk 137 with built in Electrs, Tor, and Core Node, and flashlight, toothbrush, screwdriver, sawzall, knife, and sidearm :)
https://image.nostr.build/f40a83c570f5cf8ac04dfa072899bb4f9d40eefab5f87488cac84abda4bee961.jpg

2026-02-13 22:43:23 CET

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Ever notice how humanity doesn’t have alpha males? I don’t mean the alpha personality, which is somewhat common, I mean the widespread existence of males who beat other males routinely to deny them mating access to females in the group. While I’m sure this exists is weird isolated circumstances, it’s not a feature of humanity as a whole as it is with all primates.
Why? Well, I’m fairly sure that whatever genetic defect/adaptation results in such behavior would be extinguished by a conspiracy to murder the alpha by the rest of the males. Such coordinated action requires language and planning not available to other primates.
Anyhow, back to war…

2026-02-13 22:32:18 CET

I think everyone agrees that war is bad, and I think war is bad too.
But what about the good aspects of total global war, short of global thermonuclear war? Are there any? We never bother to think about it.
Anyhow, there are good things about mass slaughter that rarely get discussed because any good that could ever possibly come from war could be attained at far less cost in blood and treasure through peaceful means.
So why will we always have war? …
This is a long story, and it has to do with, of all things, the evolutionary advantages of execution, something that sets us apart from all other primates.
TBC…

2026-02-13 06:14:06 CET

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lol, this is by far the stupidest thing you post on here…this offends me more than your Nazi-loving…and I’m a lifetime member of Jews for the protection of firearm ownership

2026-02-12 01:21:41 CET

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They should probably be asymmetric, seeking to capture the correct amount of data points above the line separate from the number below the line.
I have a lot of other analyses I want to do, like quantile regression and residual analysis