selim
Selim

What price action can be expected upon Kevin Warsh taking office as the head of the U.S. central bank?
According to Gemma 4:
### 1. The Inflationary Shock (The "Oil Shock" Effect)
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (20% of the global oil supply) and attacks on oil hubs are driving Brent prices up (exceeding $110-120).
- **Direct Impact:** This generates massive and immediate "imported" inflation. The U.S. CPI had already risen to 3.4% in March 2026.
- **Consequence for the Fed:** Inflation pushes the Fed into an impossible dilemma. Normally, a rise in inflation necessitates **raising rates** to cool the economy. However, raising rates in the midst of an energy and military crisis would risk triggering a brutal recession.
### 2. The Kevin Warsh Paradox in this Chaos
Kevin Warsh takes office on May 15 in an environment completely different from what was anticipated:
- **The Trapped Hawk:** If he remains faithful to his "hawkish" doctrine (balance sheet reduction, high rates to combat inflation), he risks suffocating a global economy already stifled by oil prices.
- **The Forced Pivot:** Pressure from the Trump administration will be immense to lower rates to offset energy costs and support the war economy.
**Monetary analysis shifts:** The probability that Warsh will be forced to inject liquidity (a dovish pivot) increases—not out of conviction, but out of economic survival.
### 3. Impact on Bitcoin Price: The Conflict of Narratives
Bitcoin finds itself at the intersection of two opposing forces:
**A. The "Risk-Off" Narrative (Bearish Short-Term):**
In times of war and energy shocks, investors tend to liquidate volatile assets to seek refuge in cash (USD) or gold. The historical "pattern" of Fed transitions could add to this panic, leading to a sharp and rapid price drop.
**B. The "Safe Haven / Hedge" Narrative (Bullish Medium-Term):**
- **Against Inflation:** If oil pushes inflation to new heights, BTC is perceived as a hedge against monetary depreciation.
- **Against Institutional Instability:** The combination of a major war, a politicized Fed, and a fragile energy system reinforces the thesis of Bitcoin as a sovereign alternative.
### Final Synthesis: The Likely Scenario
The analysis suggests a two-stage sequence:
1. **Shock Phase (Immediate / May 2026):**
**Probable decline.** Panic linked to the war in Iran, combined with the uncertainty of the Powell $\rightarrow$ Warsh transition, should trigger a massive sell-off of risk assets. BTC could test low support levels.
2. **Reaction Phase (Post-Transition / Summer 2026):**
**Potential violent rebound.** If Kevin Warsh is forced to lower rates or inject liquidity to counter the oil shock, BTC could rebound sharply, driven by liquidity injections and its role as insurance against inflation and geopolitical chaos.
**Conclusion:** The war in Iran transforms the Fed transition. It increases **extreme volatility** and the risk of an immediate crash, but paradoxically strengthens Bitcoin's **bullish fundamentals** by accelerating the degradation of the traditional fiat and energy systems.
#bitcoin #fed #ormuz #iran #usa #llm
https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/88cac1681cfc80dd4116c918ea597b1b218aa45cb5360487fb66ec79f05d0781.png

2026-05-05 00:29:38 CEST

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What you said is very dumb.

2026-04-29 15:31:37 CEST

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I’m curious about what your days are like

2026-04-29 09:50:23 CEST

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Don’t be afraid of the light, my friend.

2026-04-29 09:45:12 CEST

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$1 = 10 sats? It will eventually happen

2026-04-25 22:22:40 CEST

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« Almost »

2026-04-16 16:56:43 CEST

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Les allemands sont tellement plus éclairés que les français sur ces questions.

2026-03-25 21:43:10 CET

Avoid the noise. Get the signal. Follow @nprofile…rw6t

2026-03-24 09:08:40 CET

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That is a good question.

2026-03-23 07:45:35 CET

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Who is it?

2026-03-07 01:17:39 CET

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@npub17cy…4ml3 yeah I’m even a volunteer to translate it in French.

2026-03-04 14:58:17 CET

For my openclaw bot, I need :
- this
- it works with @npub10hp…dxkr ´s API
#nevent1q…dgvm

2026-03-04 11:53:10 CET

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Turkey will appreciate!

2026-02-26 00:09:45 CET

Don’t
#nevent1q…ve4r

2026-02-15 19:52:14 CET

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Dude, EU has the power, compared to Switzerland. And it is a kind of colonial/empire project in Europe. It deserves the name of Mordor. Well found @npub1ddg…skjy

2026-02-15 08:33:37 CET

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https://media3.giphy.com/media/Ra1bmpxpsppNC/200w.webp

2026-02-13 11:24:27 CET

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Go eat poop

2026-02-08 08:58:34 CET

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Anti-Asic : there is Monero.

2026-02-05 07:54:01 CET

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🥱

2026-02-05 02:46:36 CET

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Quantitative easing

2026-02-03 18:37:04 CET

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Elle vient d’où cette prédiction ?

2026-02-03 15:10:37 CET

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the smoothness <3

2026-02-03 10:41:33 CET

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What could go wrong

2026-02-02 10:40:28 CET

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Are you sure it’s Billie Eilish ? They all look alike now 🤣

2026-01-30 18:44:50 CET

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🤮

2026-01-29 10:59:28 CET

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https://video.nostr.build/d24df9687bc8e2ffb0d1cb12daf10e7f93267f5ed8e3426da19eee6ca1206537.mp4

2026-01-29 08:26:26 CET

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They certainly just want Bitcoin to go up

2026-01-27 20:40:05 CET

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Primal, YakiHonne and other #Nostr clients
https://media4.giphy.com/media/B37cYPCruqwwg/200w.webp

2026-01-25 15:18:43 CET

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https://media3.giphy.com/media/1j8Or3f6mbxjXOtFWn/200w.webp

2026-01-25 14:57:25 CET

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For god sake, charge your damn phone! 🤣

2026-01-25 14:52:12 CET

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Nothing new: Always has been Microsoft’s strategy.

2026-01-25 14:01:09 CET

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Yes sir https://image.nostr.build/0afcf3ae76b74df0d039ba8e3f49ef74a9abfe8a6094d335a9d3ba4c30655f5f.jpg

2026-01-25 13:59:31 CET

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Last time I did, it took two days if I remember correctly.

2026-01-24 12:42:32 CET

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Selon certains, l’euro est une monnaie commune plutôt qu’une monnaie unique car émise par chaque banque centrale (parité 1:1 avec même nom) (ce qui explique aussi les designs propres à chaque pays émetteur)

2026-01-23 14:48:03 CET

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Pour une fois, il est pertinent le Merluche

2026-01-22 21:11:46 CET

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Hope so!

2026-01-22 14:48:06 CET

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Certes. Mais LN nécessite d’avoir mis des canaux de liquidités conséquents, soit par soi, soit par le prestataire utilisé.

2026-01-21 06:32:40 CET

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Merci bcp. Quelle mauvaise pub…

2026-01-20 20:59:27 CET

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No shit Sherlock.

2026-01-20 20:57:01 CET

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C’est quelle appli qui a été piraté ?

2026-01-19 13:29:24 CET

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Je déteste ce réseau social. Mais j’avoue qu’il peut être utile, malgré tout. 🫣

2026-01-13 11:28:09 CET

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Réponse : oui.

2026-01-12 11:40:50 CET

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I keep thinking that vibecoding is overrated

2026-01-12 11:05:13 CET

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C’est pas un Yoyo la fiscalité de Ce pays ?

2026-01-11 16:11:00 CET

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I was a teenager when I played this game. Such a great creation.

2026-01-10 17:07:28 CET

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Me too (I married one)

2026-01-10 13:11:14 CET

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Dorian Nakamoto est un homme né au Japon et vivant aux USA si je ne m'abuse.

2026-01-09 09:32:04 CET

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La flèche bleue ? Tu peux développer ?

2026-01-08 21:52:44 CET

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Because weren’t in a bull market

2026-01-05 15:29:36 CET

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Intéressant. 🤔

2026-01-03 13:51:39 CET

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Reminds me this : https://flappy-nostrich.vercel.app/

2026-01-01 23:19:05 CET

HNY

2025-12-31 10:18:42 CET

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On leur souhaite bien du courage : ouvrir un commerce physique en France en 2025/2026, faut être chaud !

2025-12-30 00:38:20 CET

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Be careful bro. Take care.

2025-12-29 21:11:15 CET

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Je suis teubé j’ai cité les deux pays les plus peuplé des deux continents 🤣

2025-12-29 21:08:20 CET

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Ou usa 🇺🇸 ?

2025-12-29 21:05:13 CET

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Germany 🇩🇪 ?

2025-12-23 12:41:10 CET

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Faire un emprunt Lombard avec son stack de BTC 🤣

2025-12-14 19:17:00 CET

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Wtf

2025-12-14 12:45:24 CET

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Hey 👋! Is there a way to get it in other languages—French in particular? Thanks for your amazing work

2025-12-13 20:56:12 CET

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Is the source code of this website open ?

2025-12-07 11:22:39 CET

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L’Europe change de paradigme et se rapproche des régimes qu’ils critiquent

2025-12-06 23:37:41 CET

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https://youtube.com/shorts/B6gWft_8Sl4?si=V_XzPBGnkZfhzaWk

2025-12-06 23:28:27 CET

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J’ai pas suivi : C’est Erdoğan qui siège à la commission européenne maintenant ?

2025-12-06 20:33:58 CET

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How is it a genre?

2025-12-06 16:22:59 CET

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Always has been (quietly)

2025-11-28 15:40:53 CET

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Réponse: Ne pas utiliser AWS

2025-11-11 15:18:25 CET

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@npub1rgv…av9x

2025-11-10 21:54:23 CET

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ChatGPT ?

2025-11-10 21:50:36 CET

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Avec routstr, tu as accès à plein de models dans un chat. Et tu paies à l’usage en sats. Certains models sont plus gourmands que d’autres (GPT 5 > GPT 4 > mistral par exemple.)

2025-11-10 21:40:58 CET

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J’aime bien Mistral pour faire des trads ou des résumés: rapide et pas cher

2025-11-10 21:17:07 CET

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Usually, GPT and Mistral via @npub130m…l29s on @npub1h0u…rwx8.
Claude and Junie when I code.

2025-10-25 14:36:54 CEST

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On l’a échappé belle.

2025-10-25 13:56:52 CEST

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https://fountain.fm/episode/IYCcwhRbJzxiSLOAI8fv
#nevent1q…45me

2025-10-24 22:48:33 CEST

Tried this tonight. https://image.nostr.build/074c797e5ac19e9a75b5e4717470a0a9650c3c9c047cf2db18e3e90ec147686f.jpg https://image.nostr.build/11b3aa5589d86633a3a57ece5659eacc44ca215c985af007f52a67db62b0b7ee.jpg

2025-10-10 23:13:11 CEST

It seems there are "iPad children," and there will be "Bitcoin children" too, I can tell you that.

2025-09-27 16:04:15 CEST

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Wtf is Keet?

2025-09-19 22:21:09 CEST

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They don’t do shit then.

2025-09-10 19:26:33 CEST

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Tellement (tristement) vrai.

2025-09-10 13:53:13 CEST

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https://media0.giphy.com/media/xT9IgG50Fb7Mi0prBC/200w.webp

2025-09-07 00:53:42 CEST

I started trying @npub1yzv…rf8q Nostr client today. So smooth. I love it.
https://media0.giphy.com/media/wtZXFlwpm201Ay8u5L/200w.webp

2025-09-06 15:13:49 CEST

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Yes. Also you can ask AI.

2025-09-06 13:07:08 CEST

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I love #nostr

2025-09-06 10:09:14 CEST

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What

2025-09-03 10:12:24 CEST

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In France for example, it wouldn’t be profitable.

2025-09-02 10:48:04 CEST

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Le caveau d’tes morts! 🤣

2025-08-31 16:33:35 CEST

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You believe that ETH will do a better ATH ?

2025-08-31 10:10:46 CEST

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Bienvenue à Gattaca 😳

2025-08-30 11:42:14 CEST

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No shit Sherlock

2025-08-30 10:55:20 CEST

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Oui, tu as raison : dans tous les cas nous n’aurons pas accès aux médias pour nous exprimer sur le sujet 😅

2025-08-30 10:36:22 CEST

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Selon moi, si un parti Bitcoin est créé, il prendra le monopole, à tort, sur ce sujet. Or c’est un sujet transverse. Il ne fera que retarder « l’adoption » la reléguant pour l’opinion publique à une bande de zozo qui ont lancé leur parti. Un peu comme l’écologie ou les combats du parti pirate.
Je trouve par exemple qu’un lobby/think tank comme la Quadrature du net est une meilleure approche. Mieux vaut convertir les politiques existants.

2025-08-22 21:38:46 CEST

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Faut pas avoir de télé avec YouTube alors

2025-08-21 16:52:52 CEST

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@npub1f4u…r407

2025-08-21 16:52:10 CEST

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We’re not late, we’re retards

2025-08-21 08:22:08 CEST

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I call it BS

2025-08-21 00:30:45 CEST

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Certes mais tu peux rebondir. Et si c’était Internet, les puissants en auraient le contrôle. Pour rappel le but est de proposer un réseau alternatif échappant auraient au contrôle des puissants

2025-08-20 21:53:37 CEST

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https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/LoRaWAN

2025-08-20 21:52:27 CEST

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En fait, c’est censé faire des rebonds de périphérique Bluetooth à un autre (maximum 6 pour le moment il me semble).
Il me semble aussi que d’autres moyens sont à l’étude tels que Lora (https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/LoRaWAN)