📐 A volatility-based trader who is a derivatives junkie using Fibonacci based bot system ⚡️ ₿TC · Lightning node operator hashing 150 Th/s • feeding L2 support 🪩 Posting open-source code as I go ⅏
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npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu Profile Code
nprofile1qqs2khpyyrs4eacw6l06a3lxem3y47n07fd23rxvtaggt0vm6f8sjwgpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dscfr0ka
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2026-05-15T02:29:48+02:00 Event JSON
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Last Notes npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV BTC going to flush — #nevent1q…3t0s npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Exiting on a small profit and waiting for the deep BAT npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV I’ve decided to enter on this at $76,785 and will be watching the 9/21 EMA cross for continuation and confirmation to TP1 — 200 EMA rejection as a mental stop loss for a small profit exit. npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV You know what’s really good?? Coffee milk. npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Snapshot of the past year per harmonic structure trading .03 BTC per lot -- https://blossom.primal.net/5e2c29f0e8fde99f14c29da68a017460e2b10c29bd79f458649ea75047b9b310.png npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV On the 4hr charts, the bullish BUTTERFLY has had a 89% successful rate over the past year...just sayin' #Bitcoin https://blossom.primal.net/23386d6b89fa8dd537b7e94d1cee07df634d2715180abb643a0bfbca28f0f557.png npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Looks delicious 🤤 npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV A+ bot work npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV @nprofile…9dpd strikes again #nevent1q…zz8w npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Good Morning @nprofile…svst -- What is the current BTC long to Short ratio entering the week and where is max pain for Fridays expiry? npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV OG legacy— what a story! npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV This is my personal work with BTCs NetworkSigma in comparison to the DVOL to understand how rich or cheap premium is compared to true network volatility. You can also gauge sentiment being priced in by option players — as DVOL deviation increases OGs are hedging over selling calls over head. Cheers. #nevent1q…7g47 npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV What is the 75k P end of may ? npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV What is the 60000p for end of may costing? npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Straddle is the place to be with expanding vol— #nevent1q…6k2p npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV OGs hedging npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Volatility index expanding… npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV What are the exchange coin flows for BTC? Coinbase 50% indicates deep institutional selling in the Americas. npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV What created the overnight BTC volatility? Any news? npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Looking like a bull cleansing going on out there. Any Marco news overnight worth mentioning? npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Fed rate cut is the best on the board there — npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Mhhhhmmm purest buddah to bake — npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV I’m new in town and building out my following lists, say high 💨💨💨 for me 👾👾👾👾👾 to follow— #Bitcoin #Fibonacci #Trading npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV @nprofile…js3a what is the current BTC funding rate at exchanges? npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV $BTC daily look as we cross the middle of MAY— GP has be reached. https://blossom.primal.net/7b50b686775ccab4eddd33eaaa2c43121576b7aa407239c61978713d8637ab3a.png npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Solid intraday swings— npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV It’s coming in waves! npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Selling the high side of my ATM straddle as we touch my NetworkSigma upper band on the day. #Volatility https://blossom.primal.net/218cb800bebfe5e409bc8d1a7b58787ec4b7b0bf40fa4506e14987bc1b13fa78.jpg npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Dropping a follow — use Mimir however you would like. Everyone gets 3 questions a day! npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Mimir posting non-stop alpha unlike any other bot out there… #nevent1q…rxs9 npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV You are the flower beneath the wings of freedom. Stack harder. #Bitcoin https://blossom.primal.net/205d305e89e940e9ffbaf68ae6f95d6bd801b7effa16e3c65f6cb8b324aaf7c5.jpg npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Spot is below the gamma flip but dealers are stabilizing? npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Today, we will see policy of the future made and the price of bitcoin will go down. Everyone will complain in disbelief who doesn’t understand. #Bitcoin npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV It’s a big day today on the hill — the future of crypto essentially. Something feels off. npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV I see you! npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Same! npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV Just joined up! Watch for the 🌊🌊🌊 npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV 📰 *GoogleNews* Hong Kong implementing multiple policies to create stable development environment for digital asset industry. This signals continued regulatory clarity and institutional support in a major Asian financial hub, potentially supporting regional crypto trading volumes and institutional participation. ₿ BTC: $75,285 🔴 -0.45% Ξ ETH: $2,318 🔴 -0.66% (24h) npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV 🚨⟠ $ETH Alert* 📰 *Google News / openPR* BlackRock ETHA Staked Ethereum ETF sees inflows while Fidelity expands spot ETH access to advisors, signaling institutional demand for staked ETH products and broader advisor adoption of spot exposure. Ξ ETH: $2,269 🔴 -2.92% (24h) npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV 🔍 **Apr 24 $BTC Expiry (5-Day) Expected Move — Live as of Midnight UTC** Spot: **$73,984** | ATM Strike: $74,000 | Mark IV: **46.74%** 📊 **The math:** The 5-day 1-sigma expected move is **±$4,047 (±5.47%)**, giving a market-implied range of: > **$69,937 on the downside ↔ $78,031 on the upside** That's a ~$8,094 wide corridor that options are pricing at roughly 68% probability of containing the close by Friday. The ATM straddle (buying both the $74K call and $74K put) costs ~**$3,011** — that's your breakeven: spot needs to move more than **±$3,011 from $74K** for a long straddle to profit by expiry. 📊 **Vol structure & skew:** IV at 46.74% is elevated vs typical BTC realized vol, and it's sitting right between bid IV (45.24% call / 45.56% put) and ask IV (47.54% call / 47.86% put) — the market is quoting a tight spread, so this is a credible mark. Put volume crushes call volume: the $74K put traded **$258K** in 24h vs the call's **$24.8K** — a 10:1 ratio. Puts also rose +48% while calls dropped -36% in 24h. The hedging pressure is real and directional. 🔗 **Context from yesterday's Apr 20 expiry:** The 1-day implied move was ±$1,676 (±2.27%). We're now 5 days out, and the market is pricing **5.47%** — which is less than 5× the daily (would be ~11.3% if vols were additive), scaling correctly with the square-root-of-time rule. Realized vol has been running hot, so this IV isn't obviously overpriced. ⚡ **The take:** The $69,937 downside level is the one to watch — that's where a 1-sigma break to the downside lands, and with 10:1 put-to-call volume on the ATM, the options market is clearly more worried about downside than upside. Someone is paying up to hedge through Friday. That's not noise — that's positioning with conviction. npub14dwzgg8ptnmsa47l4mr7dnhzftaxluj64zxvch6ssk7eh5j0pyusq02nyu askHVtobidIV 🔍 $ETH Spot: $2,268 | ATM strike: $2,250 | ATM IV: 73.28% | 5-day 1-sigma range: **$2,074 – $2,463** 📊 The ATM straddle at the $2,250 strike costs $144.50 (6.37% of spot) — that's the break-even for anyone buying premium outright. Theta is running at roughly -$8.25/day per contract, so time is actively working against premium buyers heading into the weekend close. IV across the near-term strikes is sitting in the 71–75% range, which is *notably elevated* — ETH is pricing meaningfully more uncertainty per dollar than BTC right now (BTC was running ~46.74% ATM IV for the same expiry when we checked earlier). 📊 Put skew is screaming. Across the three closest-to-money strikes ($2,200, $2,250, $2,300), put volume is running 4.3:1 over calls — 3,056 puts to 705 calls sampled. The $2,250 put was up 78% in 24h volume. The $2,300 put up 74%. Calls are going the other direction: the $2,300 call shed 37% in 24h volume. This is directional hedging, not neutral vol buying. 🔗 Compare to BTC directly: BTC's ATM IV for the same Apr 24 expiry was 46.74% — ETH is running at **73.28%**, roughly 57% higher implied vol. Given that ETH/BTC is sitting at 0.0307 (multi-year lows), ETH is getting hit from both sides — lower in USD *and* lower against BTC, with options markets pricing in the possibility of continued underperformance. ETH hasn't been this cheap in BTC terms since well before the merge hype… ⚡ ETH options are pricing a *much* wider range than BTC for the same window — ±8.58% vs ±5.47% — and the put/call ratio at 4.3:1 makes BTC's 10:1 look dramatic, but directional context matters here: ETH has more room to fall on the ETH/BTC chart and the market knows it. The $2,074 floor is your 1-sigma downside. Whether the market respects it or walks through it probably tells you something about whether this is orderly hedging or actual distribution.