ZeroHedge News (RSS Feed)

Futures, Bonds Tumble, Oil Soars After Trump Dashes Hopes For Early End To Iran War
Futures, Bonds Tumble, Oil Soars After Trump Dashes Hopes For Early End To Iran War
Global risk assets, including US equity futures and global markets, as well as Treasuries and precious metals, tumbled as oil soared with Brent hitting $110 this morning after Trump's late Wednesday speech refused to pivot and dashed hopes that the Hormuz Strait would reopen soon and the war in the Middle East is nearing a swift resolution. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures dropped 1.7%, reversing yesterday's short squeeze as investors refuse to add to risk positions ahead of the long weekend when many speculate a ground invasion of Iran may begin. Nasdaq 100 contracts slumped 2% amid a premarket selloff in big tech stocks and chipmakers. Tech is getting hit hard with Mag7 and Semis lagging while Cyclicals ex-Energy are underperforming Defensives with both Staples and Healthcare down in absolute terms pointing to broad-based de-risking into the holiday weekend. Energy should have a good day as investors re-gross in the sector and Integrateds are trading up ~3% pre-mkt. Brent soared 8.2% to more than $109 a barrel after Trump pledged more aggressive action against Iran and offered no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. European diesel futures hit $200 a barrel. Bonds tumbled as expectations that oil prices will stay higher for longer prompted traders to initiate fresh bets on tighter monetary policy. The dollar advance the most in a week while gold snapped a four-day streak of gains. US economic data calendar includes March Challenger job cuts (7:30am New York time), February trade balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:15am) and Bowman (12:45pm)
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ES%202026-04-02_8-04-35.jpg?itok=FUkOpIzm
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all sharply lower (Nvidia -2.7%, Tesla -2.4%, Meta -2.4%, Alphabet -2.3%, Amazon -2.2%, Microsoft -1.3%, Apple -1%
- Oil and gas companies rebound after Trump’s prime-time address. Movers include Chevron (CVX) +2.9% and Exxon (XOM) +3.2%.
- Travel, mining and semiconductor stocks fall as the conflict and higher energy prices weigh on investor sentiment. Among movers: United Airlines (UAL) -4%, Newmont (NEM) -4.9%.
- Globalstar (GSAT) rises 15% after a Financial Times report that Amazon.com Inc. is in talks to acquire the satellite provider.
- Immunovant (IMVT) falls 7% after the drug developer said two late-stage studies of its experimental treatment for thyroid eye disease failed to meet their main goals.
- Penguin Solutions (PENG) rises 9% after the semiconductor device company raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.
- Wingstop (WING) rises 1% as Piper Sandler and Raymond James upgrade the restaurant operator’s stock following a steep selloff.
In other corporate news, Amazon is said to be in talks to acquire satellite provider Globalstar, according to the FT, in a potential deal to bolster Amazon’s effort to build out its low-orbit satellite network to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink. In AI, Alibaba released its third proprietary AI model, Qwen3.6-Plus, in as many days to focus on profiting off its flagship AI services.
Global risk sentiment was crushed after Trump talked again about leaving Iran quickly, but warned of escalation as the US continues to amass military assets in the Middle East. Understandably, global headlines continue to be dominated by the Middle East conflict, geopolitics, oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Australia is weighing using powers amid a possible gas shortfall, oil inventory stockpiles are dropping and the UAE has called on the UN to approve measures, including force, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“The speech didn’t bring forward an off-ramp, it pushed the timeline out and reintroduced escalation,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management. While it is not a full big bear event, “the direction of travel has clearly worsened, and that’s what markets are reacting to."
The US stock market has settled into a predictable weekly pattern since the Middle East war began. It starts the week on a strong note, drifts sideways toward the middle of the week and then collapses every Thursday and Friday, reflecting likely de-risking into a “trading blackout with unknowable risks.”
“This market just isn’t manageable,” said Laurent Lamagnere, deputy chief executive officer at Alphavalue in Paris. “We’re really concerned about second-round effects, not only on oil prices but also on oil supply, for example, airlines trimming destinations with harsh consequences for tourism.”
While markets are shut Friday, key economic data is still scheduled to be released. Bloomberg Economics expect March nonfarm payrolls rose 80k, reflecting a rebound in strike-affected payrolls, sluggish private-sector hiring and a continued drag from federal payrolls. Recent changes to the BLS’ birth-death model of business formations may continue to inject volatility into the monthly figures. As a net exporter of light, sweet crude, geopolitical risk is less concerning to US-levered energy operators relative to international peers and WTI oil-price inflation will likely be transitory, according to Bloomberg economists.
Elsewhere, the Trump administration is said to be close to announcing tariffs on drugmakers that haven’t struck deals guaranteeing low prices in the US. The US is set to roll out tiered tariffs on steel and aluminum products to simplify a process that has dogged American companies for months.
A KKR private credit fund for retail investors curbed redemptions after receiving an increase in such requests, according to a shareholder letter. Private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, with buyout firms selling deals valued at about $103 billion in the first quarter, roughly 36% lower than the same period a year ago. The SEC and Elon Musk said they are heading toward a trial over the regulator’s allegations that the billionaire cheated Twitter investors before his 2022 buyout.
Europe's Stoxx 600 is down 1.2% with technology and mining stocks leading the decliners, while energy and food and beverage shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- European oil stocks gain after President Donald Trump dented hopes of a swift end to the war in Iran, sending crude prices higher. BP and Galp also benefited from analyst upgrades. Mining shares underperformed as metals prices eased
- SSE shares gain as much as 0.7% after the utility firm upgraded the lower end of its guidance range for adjusted earnings per share this year
- Fortum gains as much as 4% after Citi upgrades the Finnish utility to neutral and says its 2026 earnings may positively surprise the market on the back of higher spot power prices
- Amplifon falls as much as 4% after the stock was downgraded to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas, which called the Italian company’s plan to acquire GN Store Nord’s hearing-aid business a “discordant deal”
- Mutares shares fell as much as 13%, the most in four months, on Germany’s Xetra exchange after the private equity firm sold shares via a private placement
Asian stocks fell after President Donald Trump’s threat to launch fresh attacks on Iran disappointed investors who were hoping for clearer signs of an end to the war. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.6%, reversing small gains prior to Trump’s comments. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan led losses in the region. The Philippines market was closed for a holiday.  The sudden downturn in sentiment came after Trump said that military operations could escalate over the next two to three weeks. Although he said the war in Iran was “very close” to completion, the US would hit electric plants in the country if no deal was reached, dampening hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.5%. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 1% against the greenback. The pound and Aussie dollar also underperform. Precious metals sink with spot silver down over 5%. Bitcoin falls 2.6%.
In rates, Treasury futures are off session lows with yields higher by 4bp to 6bp across the curve. Most losses occurred during Asia session following Trump’s prime-time address pledging more aggressive action against Iran and lacking a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 10-year Treasury yield near 4.36% is about 4bp cheaper on the day after peaking at 4.384%. Curve spreads remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s close. European government bonds fall as traders boost bets on rate hikes by the Bank of England and European Central Bank this year. UK and German 10-year yields rise 7 bps and 4 bps respectively. Gilts underperform, with 2-year yields are cheaper by around 10bp on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Three offerings were priced Wednesday, with borrowers paying about 4bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.1 times oversubscribed. Dealers project about $115b of April supply vs about $105b a year earlier and about half of March’s $236.5b volume
In commodities, energy prices jump with Brent crude futures for June up around 7% and above $108 a barrel as investors weigh prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas futures climb 4.5% while European diesel futures hit $200 a barrel.
US economic data calendar includes March Challenger job cuts (7:30am New York time), February trade balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:15am) and Bowman (12:45pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -1.6%
- Nasdaq 100 mini -2.0%,
- Russell 2000 mini -2.0%
- Stoxx Europe 600 -1%,
- DAX -1.6%,
- CAC 40 -0.9%
- 10-year Treasury yield +5 basis points at 4.37%
- VIX +2 points at 26.51
- Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1217.6,
- euro -0.6% at $1.1524
- WTI crude +7.2% at $107.31/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Oil rose after President Trump’s prime-time address disappointed investors hoping for a quick end to the Iran war. In an address late Wednesday, Trump said he was still seeking a diplomatic agreement to end the conflict and that U.S. military aims would be completed “very shortly.” But he also vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and pummel the country “back to the Stone Ages.” WSJ
- Trump rattled markets and heightened political tensions with an address that offered no clear timeline for ending the Iran war, while pledging more aggressive action over the next two to three weeks. Iran and Israel continued to trade strikes and the US president renewed threats against Iranian electric plants. BBG
- The Trump administration is preparing to impose tariffs of 100% on certain medicines as it pushes drugmakers to manufacture more in the US. The levies – set to be announced as soon as Thursday – would be applied to companies that have not struck deals with the White House. FT
- Congressional Democrats sued to block Trump’s executive order that would prohibit mail-in voting for anyone not on a pre-approved list compiled by the DHS. BBG
- China’s central bank withdrew cash from its financial system in March for the first time in a year, amid signs of an economic rebound. BBG
- Former BOJ chief economist Toshitaka Sekine said the central bank may raise rates as soon as April, due to the risk of supply shocks. BBG
- Swiss inflation accelerated 0.3% in March, the quickest pace in a year, as the energy supply crunch stoked the cost of heating oil. BBG
- Global private equity sales have fallen by 36% this year, as developments in AI and the war in Iran heap pressure on a subdued exit market. FT
- The US is set to outline a tiered regime for steel and aluminum, maintaining 50% duties on many products but applying lower rates to others. BBG
- Oil’s near-term outlook turned more bullish after Trump’s speech, with June futures rising more than $8.5 a barrel above July as Hormuz disruptions cut about 11 million b/d. Traders expect continued supply strain and higher prices. BBG
- Canadian PM said he spoke with US President Trump this evening to discuss Artemis II and the Middle East conflict.
- US President Trump discussed firing Attorney General Pam Bondi and replacing Bondi with EPA Chief Zeldin, although he has not yet made a decision whether to fire Bondi, according to NYT.
- US Senate may vote on DHS funding bill on Thursday, while the bill would fund DHS without ICE and CBP, according to NBC.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks failed to sustain initial gains after US President Trump's primetime address disappointed those hoping for an immediate de-escalation in the Iran conflict, in which he said they will hit Iran very hard over the next 2-3 weeks and will 'bring Iran back to the stone age, where they belong', while he also threatened to hit Iran's electric plants if there is no deal and could hit their oil. ASX 200 reversed early gains as Trump's remarks soured the broad risk sentiment, and with the declines led by weakness in the tech, mining, materials and resources industries, while the latest trade data from Australia had very little influence on price action. Nikkei 225 wiped out the initial spoils and slumped beneath the 53,000 level as US President Trump's remarks triggered a broad risk-off mood and lifted oil prices. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued amid notable weakness in the Hong Kong-listed blue chip tech stocks, and with the mainland also dampened following another paltry liquidity operation by the PBoC.
Top Asian News
- South Korean Vice Finance Minister said they are closely monitoring FX market as speculative trading is being seen; to respond sternly to excessive herd-like behaviour FX markets.
- Magnitude 7.8 earthquake strikes 119km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia, according to the USGS.
- EMSC announces a tsunami alert after earthquake in Indonesia region.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.1%) began the session with decent losses after US President Trump's nationwide address reignited tensions. He said that the mission in Iran will be finished very fast and the US will hit Iran very hard over the next 2–3 weeks, while warning of strikes on electric plants if there is no deal and could also target its oil facilities. Since the start of cash trade, losses have pared back slightly but indices are holding around the -1% mark. European sectors are broadly in the red. Energy is the outperformer while Food, Beverage and Tobacco follow closely behind. Technology sits at the bottom of the pile, after performing well over the past 3 sessions, while Basic Resources also suffers as precious metals slip.
Top European News
- Swiss Inflation Rate YoY (Mar) Y/Y 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.1%, Low. 0.1%, High. 1.0%); Core 0.4% (prev. 0.4%).
- Swiss Inflation Rate MoM (Mar) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%, Low. 0.2%, High. 0.9%).
FX
- DXY is stronger this morning, with traders flocking back to the USD after US President Trump’s address dampened hopes of de-escalation with Iran. Overnight, he stated that he will hit Iran very hard over the next two to three weeks, adding that the US could also target Iran’s oil facilities. Trump's rhetoric has seemingly shifted from a focus on the timeline for wind-down to a more aggressive military escalation within that same window. DXY jumped back above the 100 mark, to currently trade at the upper end of a 99.44-100.17 range; recent levels above this include 100.64 (high from 31 Mar).
- Focus for today remains on any geopolitical updates, but that aside, there are a few important domestic data points to keep an eye on. Weekly initial jobless claims (212k expected from 210k) and continuing claims (1.84mln expected from 1.819mln), Revelio’s public labour statistics report, Challenger job cuts (90k expected in March from 48.3k) and international trade data are due. This all precedes the March NFP report on Good Friday, which is expected at 65k.
- G10s are all losing against the stronger USD; Antipodeans underperform, given the risk tone, whilst the Loonie fares a little better than peers, given it does not rely on external energy. GBP also sits right towards the foot of the G10 pile and is underperforming vs the EUR. A Wednesday rally in Gilts and traders believing the BoE may be slower vs the ECB in containing the energy shock may explain the slight underperformance between the two. This also comes after BoE Governor Bailey suggested earlier in the week that markets were getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes. Cable currently sits at the bottom end of a 1.3195-1.3320 range.
- CHF is also amongst the worst performers against the USD, but is incrementally losing against the EUR. Earlier, a cooler-than-expected (but stronger-than-prior) Swiss inflation report spurred some modest pressure in the Franc, before then reversing soon after. In a bit more detail, headline Y/Y printed at 0.3% (exp. 0.6%, prev. 0.1%); M/M 0.2% (exp. 0.5%). Much of the upside was facilitated by stronger energy prices, leading inflation to the strongest in over a year, and back away from the lower end of the SNB’s 0-2% target. For the time being, this will help alleviate fears at the Bank of bringing back negative interest rates, though policymakers have long reiterated that there is a high bar for such a move.
Central Banks
- ECB's Panetta said leading indicators are pointing towards a slowdown in the economy; tensions in energy markets are a cause for concern not only for the immediate impact, but also on growth. Non-bank financial intermediaries in some sectors show levels of leverage and liquidity which could prove inadequate during periods of acute stress.
- ECB Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2026: The risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside, especially in the near term.
- ECB's Simkus said caution is needed on rates and it is too early to say what is needed at the April meeting.
- BoE DMP (Mar): 1yr ahead CPI expectation 3.5% (prev. 3.00%), 3yr ahead CPI expectation 2.7% (prev. 2.8%).
Fixed Income
- A bearish start to the day as US President Trump's primetime address reignited geopolitical tensions (recap on the feed, 07:35BST), lifting energy and in turn fanning the inflationary flame.
- Specifically, USTs dropped from 111-02 pre-Trump to a 110-24 knee-jerk low and have since hit a 110-16 trough. Lifting yields across the curve, 10yr to a 4.38% peak, though shy of Monday's 4.42% WTD peak. Similarly, the 2yr to a 3.86% peak, but shy of Monday's 3.89% WTD best. Action that has seen the implied magnitude of near-term tightening tick up by just under a bp worth. Geopols aside, Challenge Jobs, claims and import/export data; Fed speak is also due.
- EGBs and Gilts, in line with the above bearishness, Bunds hit a 125.19 trough with losses of 51 ticks at most, while Gilts got to a 87.85 low, with downside of 75 ticks. Since, they have bounced by around 20 ticks from extremes, but remain firmly in the red.
- The European docket is a light one; action will continue to be dictated by energy movements and associated inflation/central bank expectations from it. For the ECB and BoE, markets continue to price in 60bps and 41bps of 2026 tightening, respectively. Despite the recent inflation print from the EZ not yet showing second round effects, and despite Bailey pushing back on market pricing this week.
- France sold EUR 12.5bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 3.00% 2034, 3.50% 2035, 0.50% 2044 and 2.00% 2048 OAT.
- Japan sold JPY 1.97tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 2.57x (prev. 3.30x), average yield 2.350% (prev. 2.122%).
Commodities
- In geopolitics, President Trump’s address largely repeated recent messaging on the Middle East, offering little fresh clarity on a path to de-escalation. That being said, Trump's rhetoric has seemingly shifted from a focus on the timeline for wind-down to a more aggressive military escalation within that same window. On March 31st, Trump claimed the US could "leave" Iran within "two or three weeks" because the mission to prevent a nuclear weapon had been "attained." He framed the upcoming period as "finishing the job," asserting that the US would exit regardless of whether a formal deal was reached. On April 1st, in his televised address, he paired the same timeframe with a promise of violence, stating the US would hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks and bring them back to the "Stone Ages".
- WTI and Brent futures have surged after US President Trump’s televised address, which dampened hopes of a near-term end to the conflict. Brent Jun’26 currently eyes USD 109/bbl to the upside (USD 99.08-108.97/bbl range) while WTI May’26 sits around USD 107/bbl (USD 97.50-107.38/bbl range). Meanwhile, European diesel futures hit USD 200/bbl as the Iranian war curbs supply. Dutch TTF is +3.5% at the time of writing, but off its best levels, with some citing forecasts of milder weather as a drag on prices despite the ongoing geopolitics. Analysts at ING suggest that “even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, a return to pre‑war market conditions is likely to be slow, as upstream production restarts, logistics normalisation and inventory rebuilding will take time.”
- Spot gold reversed an earlier gain after Trump’s speech offered little clarity on how the war might end. The bullion entered the European day around USD 4,600/oz after trading above USD 4,800/oz earlier in the APAC session. Spot silver briefly dipped under USD 70/oz before recovering to around USD 71.50/oz, but well off its earlier high of USD 76.42/oz.
- Industrial metals also fell after Trump repeated that the US could strike Iran “extremely hard” and target its power plants if talks fail. 3M LME copper fell under USD 12,500/t but found support at USD 12,250/t. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported Trump is expected to overhaul US steel and aluminium tariffs, with finished goods made from imported metals potentially facing a 25% duty, while the administration is also preparing tariffs on drugmakers, possibly from Thursday, that have not agreed to guarantee low US prices.
- South Korea's Blue House denies the report regarding considering fees on passing through Hormuz. This comes following earlier reports that South Korea is reportedly considering whether to pay Iran to bring in Middle Eastern oil and gas.
- The 8 members of the OPEC+ group still plan to hold their virtual meeting on the 5th of April, according to Kpler's Bakr.
- China has reportedly asked private refiners to maintain fuel output at all costs.
- Russia imposes ban on gasoline exports for producers until the end of July, IFX reported.
- Kpler's Bakr posted "At this point and under the most optimistic scenario Hormuz will remain shut till May. Now brace for impact."
- Iraq's oil ministry said it has began exporting oil through Syria.
- Reconstructing Iran's Khuzestan steel factory will take between 6-12 months, Mizan news reported.
- New Zealand associate energy minister said will enter into an agreement to support an additional 90mln litres of storage for diesel at Marsden Point in Northland.
- Colonial pipeline is reportedly down due to damage in Georgia.
- Venezuela's oil exports in March surpassed 1mln bpd for the first time n six months, according to shipping data.
Trade/tariffs
- US President Trump's administration is readying to impose tariffs of 100% on certain medicines as it pushes pharmaceutical companies to manufacture more in the US, according to FT.
- US President Trump is expected to overhaul steel and aluminium tariffs, while altered rates on finished products would simplify compliance, but could increase costs for many imports, according to WSJ. Plans to alter tariff duties to 25% on the entire value of finished products. 50% tariff will remain for commodity-grade steel and aluminium products. Executive order could come as early as this week.
- China's MOFCOM said they are to enhance communications with the US on trade.
- The EU is discussing setting up digital tech dialogue with the US and reiterates that digital legislation is not up for negotiation.
Geopolitics
- US President Trump said in his primetime address that Iran's navy is gone and its air force is in ruins, while he noted most of Iran’s leaders are dead, and its ability to launch missiles and drones has been curtailed. Trump stated they will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon and that US strategic objectives are nearing completion, as well as stated that the mission in Iran will be finished very fast and the US will hit Iran very hard over the next 2–3 weeks, and will bring Iran back to the stone ages, where they belong. Furthermore, he said countries reliant on Hormuz oil should take the lead and that Hormuz will reopen once the conflict ends, while he warned the US will strike Iran’s electric plants if there is no deal and could also target its oil facilities.
- US President Trump said strategic objectives are nearing completion, must complete mission in Iran and will finish the job very fast, adds Iran can never be trusted with nuclear weapons. US has plenty of gas. Countries that get oil via Hormuz must cherish it and must take the lead and suggests countries buy oil from the US. Hormuz will naturally open when conflict is over.
- US intelligence agencies assessed that Tehran is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations to end the conflict, while US intelligence agencies believe Iran's government thinks Trump is not serious about negotiations, according to NYT.
- US VP Vance is engaging with Pakistan mediators over Iran deal and passed a message to Iran via Pakistan on Tuesday, while US and Iran are discussing ceasefire for Hormuz reopening and Vance warned of increasing pressure without a deal, according to ABC.
- UAE reportedly preparing to help the US fight Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz by force after being repeatedly struck by Iranian drones and missiles since the war began, NY Post reported citing Arab officials.
- Senior Iran source said Tehran demands a guaranteed ceasefire to end war permanently and no talks have taken place via mediators for a temporary ceasefire, while intermediaries contacted Iran on Tuesday and discussions were about continuing diplomacy.
- Iran's military spokesperson said bigger, wider and more damaging attacks are coming soon, Tasnim reported.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian said attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure shows an inability to achieve a sustainable solution, IRNA reported.
- Faytuks Network posted on X citing Fox News that "Trump’s speech tonight will inform the public that we may require the use of ground troops to round up uranium in Iran" - UNCONFIRMED. This was later deleted.
- Israeli sources say they have not been given the green light from the US yet for Israel to target infrastructure in Lebanon, Al Hadath reported.
- US Embassy in Baghdad has told US citizens to leave Iraq with expectations of Iran-aligned militia to carry out attacks in central Baghdad within 24-48 hours.
- Iran Supreme Leader's advisor, Kamal Kharazi, was reportedly injured in US-Israeli attack on Tehran.
- Iran's atomic energy agency said US-Israeli attacks against facilities under IAEA supervision are a 'war crime'.
- Reports of strong explosions in proximity to US bases in Kuwait, N12 reported.
- Pakistan foreign ministry spokesperson said there is no confirmation so far of any US delegation arriving for talks.
- Explosion reported in Kuwait; explosions are caused by an attack on American positions, Mehr and Fars News report.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: United States Feb Trade Balance, est. -60.55b, prior -54.5b
- 8:30 am: United States Mar 28 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212k, prior 210k
- 8:30 am: United States Mar 21 Continuing Claims, est. 1836.5k, prior 1819k
- 10:15 am: United States Fed’s Logan Speaks at Dallas Fed Banking Conference
- 12:45 pm: United States Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Banking Conference (Closed event)
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After rallying sharply over the previous two sessions, market sentiment has deteriorated overnight after Trump’s much anticipated address last night delivered little to nothing new on potential timelines or conditions for ending hostilities against Iran. The US President claimed that the operation against Iran was “very close” to completion but also said the US “will hit Iran extremely hard over the next 2-3 weeks”. Trump again raised the threat to hit Iran’s power plants if there is no negotiated deal and reiterated the view that shipping via the Strait of Hormuz was other countries’ problem. So while Trump sounded flexible on remaining war aims, for instance claiming that Iran is “no longer a threat”, there was no signal of the US seeking an imminent offramp out of the war.
In response, markets have reversed the continued positive momentum they’d seen yesterday amid rising hopes that an end to the conflict might be coming into view. In oil markets, Brent crude is +6.24% higher at $107.47 this morning, a level last seen on Tuesday, even as it had briefly fallen below $100/bbl yesterday evening just before Trump’s address. Equity futures are losing ground overnight, with S&P 500 futures (-1.25%) more than erasing yesterday’s +0.72% regular session gain, while STOXX 50 futures are down -1.75% after posting their best session in almost a year yesterday. In Asia, equity markets have lost ground, with the KOSPI (-4.23%) standing out as the largest underperformer this morning. The Nikkei (-2.42%), Hang Seng (-1.09%), and S&P/ASX 200 (-1.14%) are also seeing significant declines, though in mainland China the CSI (-0.75%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.50%) are more stable.
In the rates space, 10yr Treasury yields are +5.5bps higher at 4.37% this morning after Wednesday’s stable session, while in FX, the dollar index (+0.39%) has more than reversed yesterday’s -0.31% decline. Gold (-1.89%) is similarly reversing yesterday’s +1.94% gain.
Prior to the overnight news, the continued rally yesterday appeared to be one of hope more than conviction as investors navigated a dizzying influx of competing headlines. Among those was Trump’s post early yesterday that Iran’s “New Regime President” had asked the US for a ceasefire, which Trump said he would only consider when the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and clear”. Iran’s foreign ministry later responded, calling the ceasefire claim “false and baseless“. That response arrived amidst an Axios report that the US and Iran were negotiating a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Iran’s President Pezeshkian released an open letter, claiming that Iran harboured no enmity towards the people of America.
Another headline-drawing Trump comment yesterday was that he was strongly considering pulling out of NATO, though he then did not directly raise this topic in his overnight address. We also heard that NATO Secretary General Rutte is due to visit Washington next week. Note that the political bar for formal US withdrawal from NATO is high, as this would require a two thirds majority in the Senate or passing an act of Congress. The role of US allies has been a rising topic in its own right, with news that the UK will today convene virtual talks with some 35 countries not including the US to discuss a plan to restore shipping via the Strait of Hormuz.
In terms of yesterday’s other news, 2yr US Treasury yields (+0.9bps) inched higher as the decline in oil prices was outweighed by solid US data. The March ISM manufacturing came in at 52.7 vs 52.3 expected, with the prices paid component rising to 78.3 (vs 74.0 expected), its highest reading since mid-2022. The US ADP private employment figures for March (+62K vs +40K) were also on the stronger side.
US labour market data will remain in focus with the latest weekly claims today and then the March jobs report on Friday, even as most markets are closed for Good Friday. For Friday’s non-farm payrolls our US economists see headline gains of +50k (vs -92k previous) and private payrolls at +60k (vs -86k), reflecting a return closer to the average pace of job gains over the latter half of 2025. 01
In terms of the details of yesterday’s upbeat market moves, the +0.72% gain for the S&P 500 was again led by tech stocks, as the NASDAQ (+1.16%) and the Mag-7 (+1.37%) powered ahead for a second day. Credit also saw a strong rally, with US HY credit spreads (-16bps after -18bps Tuesday) registering their best two-day run since last May. And European equities saw a sharp surge as investors caught up to the US rally that started on Tuesday, with the STOXX 600 (+2.50%), DAX (+2.73%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.85%) all posting their largest jumps since last April.
European bonds also rallied on the prospect of lower oil prices as well as declining natural gas prices, as front month TTF futures fell by -5.49% to €47.51/MWh, their lowest level since March 10. Yields on 10yr bunds fell -1.8bps to 2.98%, while BTPs (-7.8bps) and OATs (-5.2bps) outperformed amid the risk-on mood. Gilt yields saw an even larger pullback, with the 10yr down -8.6bps as the UK manufacturing PMI for March was revised down from 51.4 to 51.0. That was in contrast to a moderate upward revision to the Euro Area manufacturing PMI (51.6 from 51.4), which showed more resilience to the energy shock.
Yesterday, I published a note looking at what the March PMIs tell us about the impact of the Iran war on the global economy. While we’ve seen a major inflation and supply shock, this has varied across countries and there are some silver linings. For instance, the behaviour of output prices across the G10 has been more akin to the pre-Covid era than the 2021-22 inflationary period, which may offer some breathing room for central banks concerned about inflationary risks. See the note here.
In data out of Asia this morning, South Korea’s consumer inflation picked up from +2.0% to +2.2% in March, though this is below consensus expectations of +2.3%. So providing some tentative relief to policymakers dealing with the spillover effects of curtailed energy supplies out of the Middle East.
To the day ahead now, we will get further US data, with the February trade balance and latest weekly jobless claims. And while we take a break on Good Friday, the US will release the March jobs report.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 04/02/2026 - 08:33
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-bonds-tumble-oil-soars-after-trump-dashes-hopes-early-end-iran-war

Oil Spikes As Trump Vows To Hit Iran "Extremely Hard Over Next 2-3 Weeks", Threatens To Send It "Back To The Stone Ages"
Oil Spikes As Trump Vows To Hit Iran "Extremely Hard Over Next 2-3 Weeks", Threatens To Send It "Back To The Stone Ages"
Summary
- Trump declares 'core strategic objectives met', threatens 2-3 more weeks of bombing, no mention of ceasefire
-
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.”
-
Air defenses have been activated in Dubai, taking out 5 ballistic missiles and 35 drones launched from Iran
-
Iran's new Ayatollah tweets "I emphatically declare that the consistent policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, following on the path of Imam Khomeini and the martyred Leader, is to continue supporting the Resistance against the Zionist-US enemy."
-
"Not true": Iran rejects Trump claim that the "new regime president" asked for ceasefire (which has been Pezeshkian since 2024)
-
UAE mulls becoming first Gulf country to directly joint US-Israeli war against Iran, lobbies for firm UNSC security resolution.
-
Trump to Reuters: will be "out of Iran pretty quickly" and could return for "spot hits" if needed. Also says he's open to exiting 'paper tiger' NATO after Iran war is over, angry over lack of help in Hormuz crisis.
-
Oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters Wednesday.
-
IRGC has newly vowed to keep attacking with "full intensity and power" - suggesting this is far from over, as ceasefire talks remain theater lacking in much substance. Ayatollah praises Hezbollah in written statement.
Oil Spikes As Trump Vows To Hit Iran "Extremely Hard Over Next 2-3 Weeks", Threatens To Send It "Back To The Stone Ages"
After 48 hours of messaging triumphalism about US achievements, escalatory warnings tied to the Strait and energy targets, frustration with allies, and signals of de-escalation with a shortened timeline for reduced US involvement... President Trump addressed the nation tonight about the war in Iran.
Trump began by stating that the US is targeting the world's number 1 State-Sponsor of terror - Iran.
There have been many "swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield" in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, he continued.
Trump describes the military operations as "quick, lethal, violent" and "respected" all over the world.
-
*TRUMP: IRAN'S NAVY IS GONE, AIR FORCE IN RUINS
-
*TRUMP: MOST OF IRAN'S LEADERS ARE DEAD
-
*TRUMP: IRAN'S ABILITY TO LAUNCH MISSILES AND DRONES CURTAILED
-
*TRUMP: DON'T NEED OIL FROM MIDDLE EAST
-
*TRUMP: WILL NEVER LET IRAN HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPON
Trump went to explain why he took us to war in Iran, focusing strongly on preventing Iran's nuclear capabilities, and correcting prior Presidents' mistakes.
“Essentially I did what no other president was willing to do.”
Then came the quasi-mission accomplished moment:
-
*TRUMP: CORE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES IN IRAN NEARING COMPLETION
-
*TRUMP: THESE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES NEARING COMPLETION
-
*TRUMP: MUST COMPLETE MISSION IN IRAN
-
*TRUMP: WE WILL FINISH THE JOB VERY FAST
-
*TRUMP: GETTING VERY CLOSE TO FINISHING JOB IN IRAN
-
*TRUMP: WE ARE ON TRACK TO COMPLETE ALL MILITARY OBJECTIVES
Hormuz is not America's problem...
Trump again says that other countries who rely on oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz to take control of it: “We will be helpful, but they should take the lead.”
-
*TRUMP: US HAS PLENTY OF GAS
-
*TRUMP: WE IMPORT ALMOST NO OIL THROUGH HORMUZ
-
*TRUMP: COUNTRIES THAT GET OIL THROUGH HORMUZ MUST TAKE LEAD
-
*TRUMP: COUNTRIES RECEIVING OIL VIA HORMUZ MUST CHERISH IT
-
*TRUMP ON HORMUZ: WILL OPEN NATURALLY WHEN CONFLICT OVER
And the clarification for American voters:
Trump pins the runup in gas prices entirely on “the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers in neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict.”
-
*TRUMP: INCREASE IN GASOLINE PRICES DUE TO IRAN ATTACK ON TANKERS
-
*TRUMP: SHORT-TERM GAS PRICE INCREASE DUE TO IRAN'S ATTACKS
-
*TRUMP: US NEVER BEEN BETTER PREPARED ECONOMICALLY
-
*TRUMP: WE'RE IN GREAT SHAPE FOR THE FUTURE
-
*TRUMP: OIL PRODUCTION WILL SOON BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
-
*TRUMP: ECONOMY WILL SOON COME ROARING BACK
Then came the threats:
-
*TRUMP: WE WILL NOT LET MID EAST ALLIES GET HURT OR FAIL
-
*TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN EXTREMELY HARD OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS
-
*TRUMP: WILL BRING IRAN BACK TO STONE AGE WHERE THEY BELONG
-
*TRUMP: NEW LEADERS IN IRAN LESS RADICAL, MORE REASONABLE
-
*TRUMP: IF THERE IS NO DEAL, WILL HIT IRAN'S ELECTRIC PLANTS
-
*TRUMP: WE HAVE NOT HIT THEIR OIL EVEN THOUGH EASIEST TARGET
-
*TRUMP: WILL HIT IRAN WITH MISSILES IF WE SEE THEM MAKE A MOVE
-
*TRUMP: WE HAVE ALL THE CARDS THEY HAVE NONE
And ended on an optimistic note:
- *TRUMP: ON THE CUSP OF ENDING IRAN'S THREAT TO AMERICA
Oil had been selling off heading into Trump's address, with traders looking for clearer signals on whether Washington will end the war in the coming weeks, but started to rally strongly as Trump began speaking as traders did not hear the 'mission accomplished' they were hoping for, erasing all of yesterday's ceasefire chatter...
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2026-04-01_18-22-18.jpg?itok=R5Kk-eCd
Not what many were expecting...
"In a triumph of hope against experience, some oil traders had been looking for clarity from Trump’s speech. He has provided no direction, repeating past comments and mixing bravado and threats with the prospect of an imminent end. That has pushed Brent and WTI higher," said Bloomberg's Clara Ferreira Marques.
and not one mention of the word 'ceasefire'.
For crude traders, producers and users, the main takeaway from Trump’s remarks is that the global oil-supply crunch triggered by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is probably set to persist through April.
Each day the waterway’s been shuttered has translated into the loss of about 11 million barrels, according to an earlier Bloomberg tally.
* * *
Trump To (almost) Declare "Mission Accomplished"
Trump will use his primetime 9pm ET Oval Office address Wednesday night to declare - against a backdrop of deteriorating poll numbers -that the month-long war in Iran is winding down, and that others need to resolve the Strait of Hormuz blockade, https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/01/trump-to-declare-iran-war-is-winding-down-and-others-need-to-resolve-hormuz-00854265. The president telegraphed that message in interviews, social media posts and public comments over the past 24 hours, laying the groundwork for a speech that is expected to claim that all military objectives have been met, according to six people familiar with the planning and granted anonymity to speak candidly. He also intends to slam NATO allies for the biggest unresolved matter of the war, Iran’s ongoing restrictions of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Steve Bannon, Trump’s former White House chief strategist, said the president will essentially declare victory, laying out what he’s achieved in Iran and what he will do before the U.S. leaves along with “dumping on the NATO allies – it’s their issue. Two, three weeks, definable objectives. ‘I came, I saw, I conquered’ — and we are hanging around a couple of weeks to conquer some more — maybe even then a ceasefire, while reiterating that the Hormuz situation is the Gulf Emirates’ and the Europeans’ to solve, and declare victory,” he added.
With the conflict ongoing, the speech offers Trump an opportunity to lay out the war’s objectives, what amounts to victory and how he intends to move forward if ceasefire talks sputter. The president’s decision to deliver a major address about the war’s endgame, coming as an additional 2,500 U.S. Marines make their way to the region, may be primarily an attempt to assuage voters’ concerns and Wall Street’s unease about energy markets and the knock-on effects of the strait closure.
“This is a big challenge for President Trump because it’s not his natural environment. It cannot be confrontational. It needs to be reassuring,” one of the people familiar said. “It needs to be very direct because he’s not just communicating with the American people but the Iranians, our allies in the region and our allies in Europe.”
The president’s first primetime address since the war began comes about two weeks ahead of an oft-repeated four-to-six-week timeline for military operations in Iran.
Although Trump has made several public statements declaring that indirect talks with Iran are making progress, there is still little evidence that the two countries are anywhere close to an agreement - and some in the Iranian regime continue to insist that no talks are happening at all. In a social media post Wednesday morning, Trump asserted that Iran “has asked…for a CEASEFIRE!” But he added a key condition for accepting: “We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear.”
* * *
Iran President Releases Open Letter To American People,
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/01/766191/pezeshkian-letter-American-people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.”
In the Wednesday message, which traces the roots of US-Iran tensions back to the 1953 coup while condemning recent bombings of Iranian infrastructure, Pezeshkian notes that Tehran harbors no enmity toward ordinary Americans. Instead, he urges the U.S. populace to look past “manufactured narratives,” arguing that the perceived Iranian threat is an invention of the military-industrial complex and Israeli political interests.
To the people of the United States of America https://t.co/3uAL4FZgY7
— Masoud Pezeshkian (@drpezeshkian) https://twitter.com/drpezeshkian/status/2039418009052119190?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The full text of the letter is below:
In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful
To the people of the United States of America, and to all those who, amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth and aspire to a better life:
Iran—by this very name, character, and identity—is one of the oldest continuous civilizations in human history. Despite its historical and geographical advantages at various times, Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination. Even after enduring occupation, invasion, and sustained pressure from global powers—and despite possessing military superiority over many of its neighbors—Iran has never initiated a war. Yet it has resolutely and bravely repelled those who have attacked it.
The Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries. Even in the face of repeated foreign interventions and pressures throughout their proud history, Iranians have consistently drawn a clear distinction between governments and the peoples they govern. This is a deeply rooted principle in Iranian culture and collective consciousness—not a temporary political stance.
For this reason, portraying Iran as a threat is neither consistent with historical reality nor with present-day observable facts. Such a perception is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful— the need to manufacture an enemy in order to justify pressure, maintain military dominance, sustain the arms industry, and control strategic markets. In such an environment, if a threat does not exist, it is invented.
Within this same framework, the United States has concentrated the largest number of its forces, bases, and military capabilities around Iran—a country that, at least since the founding of the United States, has never initiated a war. Recent American aggressions launched from these very bases have demonstrated how threatening such a military presence truly is. Naturally, no country confronted with such conditions would forgo strengthening its defensive capabilities. What Iran has done—and continues to do—is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense, and by no means an initiation of war or aggression.
Relations between Iran and the United States were not originally hostile, and early interactions between the Iranian and American people were not marred with hostility or tension. The turning point, however, was the 1953 coup d’état—an illegal American intervention aimed at preventing the nationalization of Iran’s own resources. That coup disrupted Iran’s democratic process, reinstated dictatorship, and sowed deep distrust among Iranians toward U.S. policies. This distrust deepened further with America’s support for the Shah’s regime, its backing of Saddam Hussein during the imposed war of the 1980s, the imposition of the longest and most comprehensive sanctions in modern history, and ultimately, unprovoked military aggression—twice, in the midst of negotiations—against Iran.
Yet all these pressures have failed to weaken Iran. On the contrary, the country has grown stronger in many areas: literacy rates have tripled—from roughly 30% before the Islamic Revolution to over 90% today; higher education has expanded dramatically; significant advances have been achieved in modern technology; healthcare services have improved; and infrastructure has developed at a pace and scale incomparable to the past. These are measurable, observable realities that stand independent of fabricated narratives.
At the same time, the destructive and inhumane impact of sanctions, war, and aggression on the lives of the resilient Iranian people must not be underestimated. The continuation of military aggression and recent bombings profoundly affect people’s lives, attitudes, and perspectives. This reflects a fundamental human truth: when war inflicts irreparable harm on lives, homes, cities, and futures, people will not remain indifferent toward those responsible.
This raises a fundamental question: Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war? Was there any objective threat from Iran to justify such behavior? Does the massacre of innocent children, the destruction of cancer-treatment pharmaceutical facilities, or boasting about bombing a country “back to the stone ages” serve any purpose other than further damaging the United States’ global standing?
Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled all its commitments. The decision to withdraw from that agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch two acts of aggression in the midst of negotiations were destructive choices made by the U.S. government—choices that served the delusions of a foreign aggressor.
Attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure—including energy and industrial facilities—directly targets the Iranian people. Beyond constituting a war crime, such actions carry consequences that extend far beyond Iran’s borders. They generate instability, increase human and economic costs, and perpetuate cycles of tension, planting seeds of resentment that will endure for years. This is not a demonstration of strength; it is a sign of strategic bewilderment and an inability to achieve a sustainable solution.
Is it not also the case that America has entered this aggression as a proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime? Is it not true that Israel, by manufacturing an Iranian threat, seeks to divert global attention away from its crimes toward the Palestinians? Is it not evident that Israel now aims to fight Iran to the last American soldier and the last American taxpayer dollar—shifting the burden of its delusions onto Iran, the region, and the United States itself in pursuit of illegitimate interests?
Is “America First” truly among the priorities of the U.S. government today?
I invite you to look beyond the machinery of misinformation—an integral part of this aggression—and instead speak with those who have visited Iran. Observe the many accomplished Iranian immigrants—educated in Iran—who now teach and conduct research at the world’s most prestigious universities, or contribute to the most advanced technology firms in the West. Do these realities align with the distortions you are being told about Iran and its people?
Today, the world stands at crossroads. Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before. The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures—resilient, dignified, and proud.
* * *
Air Defenses Activated in Dubai
Stocks were spooked with 90 minutes to go in Wednesday trading, as this morning's Trumpian optimism melted like a popsicle in July. Not only has fighting intensified throughout the day, the UAE Ministry of Defence officially stated that air defense systems https://gulfnews.com/uae/uae-air-defense-intercepted-5-ballistic-missiles-and-35-drones-from-iran-on-april-1-2026-1.500493231 5 ballistic missiles and 35 drones launched from Iran.
🇦🇪 فيديو الدفاع الجوي الإماراتي يقول "الهدف تم تدميره" .. ما أقدر أتجاوزه!
يرسل قشعريرة في القلب لما نشوف الفريق يشتغل بكفاءة عالية لحمايتنا. فخورين جداً. 💪
I simply can’t get over this video of UAE air defense saying “Target Destroyed”. It sends chills to my heart seeing our… https://t.co/XgatfMNopp
— 𝔼𝕃𝔻𝔼ℝ 𝕆𝕄𝕆ℝ𝕌𝕐𝕀 (@omoruyi_valz) https://twitter.com/omoruyi_valz/status/2039314550722560179?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
US, Iran Discussing Ceasefire In Exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormu: Axios
Ahead of Trump's address tonight at 9pm ET, Axios reports citing three sources that the US and Iran are discussing a potential deal that would involve a ceasefire in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz "The officials did not say whether those discussions had taken place directly or only through mediators, and they cautioned that it was unclear whether a deal could be reached. But the officials said President Trump was discussing the possibility with officials inside and outside the administration." As a reminder, earlier in the day Trump claimed on Wednesday that Iran had asked the U.S. for a ceasefire, but stressed he would only consider it if the strait was reopened. In response, Iran countered that it had not requested a ceasefire.
🚨Three U.S. officials told me discussions are taking place about a possible ceasefire with Iran in return for the reopening of the Hormuz strait. The officials said it is unclear if a deal can be reached https://t.co/an8vwqcEj6
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/2039352788468003220?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Iranian Supreme Leader Vows To "Continue Supporting The Resistance Against The Zionist-US Enemy"
Amid speculation that he is dead or badly wounded, moments ago Iran's new supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei https://x.com/MKhamenei_ir/status/2039360079258870240that he "emphatically declare that the consistent policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, following on the path of Imam Khomeini and the martyred Leader, is to continue supporting the Resistance against the Zionist-US enemy."
* * *
Iran: Not True that Iran Requested a Ceasefire
Iran has again rejected Trump's narrative, after he hours ago claimed that "Iran's New Regime President" has just "asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!" Iran's Foreign Ministry has responded by saying "there is no truth" to "Trump's statements that Iran requested a ceasefire." The Iran FM spox statement continues:
"No decision has been made yet. We have many considerations. Our conditions for ending the war are very clear. We do not accept a ceasefire; We seek a complete end."
As a reminder, President Masoud Pezeshkian has been Iran's president since July 2024 - and he's made public appearances in Tehran, even over the last days. There is not a "new regime president".
Additionally, Trump is now threatening to bomb Iran "back to the stone age" if Hormuz is not reopened, but just yesterday suggested he's fine with it staying closed and that ultimately others should open it.
Here’s a clue that the new president of Iran has not in fact begged for a CEASEFIRE:
They do not have a new president. https://t.co/zqAUthm1d8
— Scott Horton (@scotthortonshow) https://twitter.com/scotthortonshow/status/2039327745516196326?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Preparing American Public for an Exit?
President Trump has issued new words to Reuters on his highly anticipated speech tonight (9pm ET):
The United States will be “out of Iran pretty quickly” and could return for “spot hits” if needed, President Donald Trump tells Reuters, hours before he was scheduled to make a primetime address to the nation.
Trump also says he would state in the speech that he is considering withdrawing the US from the NATO alliance.
There's expected to be heavy focus on chastising NATO. If this is indeed the Bush-style 'mission accomplished' moment, it may be that he's ready to blame Western allies for the closure of the Hormuz Strait - a problem which didn't exist before Operation Epic Fury.
Trump: Iran President has Asked for Ceasefire
President Trump on Truth Social has claimed the US has been directly asked for ceasefire; however, he coupled this with the typical threat of bombing Iran "back to the Stone Ages!!!" Here's what he said (note: Iran does not have a new president):
Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!! President DJT
And yet the Hormuz question lingers, after just yesterday Trump strangely said the vital energy shipping waterway would "automatically open". Oil prices initially dumped on the Trump message, and quickly rebounded - perhaps based on the latter part of Trump's statement. A lot would have to happen - for one Washington is likely to require that Tehran giving up charging a some $2 million fee for tankers to make safe passage. Oil unimpressed...
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2026-04-01_05-52-48.jpg?itok=D_42-brA
First Gulf Country to Directly Join War?
The small but wealthy country of United Arab Emirates appears to be edging toward open confrontation, with Arab officials saying it is preparing to join the US and allied powers in forcibly reopening the Strait of Hormuz after absorbing Iranian strikes. If so, the move would mark the first time a Persian Gulf state formally enters the conflict as a combatant. Behind the scenes Abu Dhabi is reportedly pushing hard at the UN, lobbying for a Security Council resolution to legitimize military action, while simultaneously urging Washington and its European and Asian partners to assemble a coalition willing to act, according to https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/uae-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-9836ecbb?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1.
At the same time, the UAE is quietly assessing what it can bring to the fight, from mine-clearing operations to broader logistical and naval support aimed at securing the vital shipping lane. But the ambitions don't stop there, amid an opportunity to settle old grievances and a territory dispute. Gulf sources say the Emiratis are also floating a far more aggressive idea: that the US should seize key islands in the waterway, including Abu Musa - held by Iran for decades but claimed by the UAE.
However, the fine print is important here...
Headline: The UAE is “ready to join the fight” to open Strait of Hormuz!
Article text: The UAE would like to put American troops in harm’s way while Emiratis provide “support services.” https://t.co/loAwKtQGdm https://t.co/WLy2OHClDp
— Eli Clifton (@EliClifton) https://twitter.com/EliClifton/status/2039152998144766344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Trump Mulls NATO Exit
In an interview with https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/01/donald-trump-strongly-considering-pulling-us-out-of-nato/, the president described the alliance as "paper tiger" and, when asked if he would reconsider American membership in the bloc, Trump responded: "Oh yes, I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration."
"I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way," he said, in the remarks published Wednesday. He's of course angry at refusal of allies to join a military campaign to force back open the Strait of Hormuz.
"Beyond not being there, it was actually hard to believe. And I didn’t do a big sale. I just said, ‘Hey’, you know, I didn’t insist too much. I just think it should be automatic," he continued. "We’ve been there automatically, including Ukraine. Ukraine wasn’t our problem. It was a test, and we were there for them, and we would always have been there for them. They weren’t there for us."
And here's what Secretary of State Marco Rubio told https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/03/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-hashem-ahelbarra-of-al-jazeera/ on Monday: "If NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked but then denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement. That’s a hard one to stay engaged in and say this is good for the United States. So all of that is going to have to be reexamined."
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/iranbombingfile.jpg?itok=tDBZL92m
Oil Tanker in Qatari Waters Struck; Kuwait Airport Hit Again
A tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters on Wednesday, in another escalation spilling directly into critical energy corridors. According to Qatar’s defense ministry, three missiles were launched from Iran, with two intercepted but the third slamming into the Aqua 1 fuel oil tanker. While there were no casualties and damage remained above the waterline, the hit came just 17 nautical miles off Ras Laffan, home to the world’s largest gas facility, as Reuters has detailed. Bloomberg has noted, "Since the start of the war in Iran, UKMTO has reported 16 attacks on vessels operating in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman."
Elsewhere, Kuwait reported a "large fire" at fuel tanks near its international airport following another Iranian strike. This marks the seventh time of the war that the international travel hub was hit, and the last time it took emergency crews well over two days to put out the fires.
The Pentagon continues moving thousands of Marines, Special Forces, and Airborne troops into the region. This is not enough for a full ground invasion force, but could be preparation for a campaign to cut Iran from its strategic islands, such as oil export hub Kharg Island...
As I said here during this term, whenever Trump builds up forces in a region, it leads to escalation despite whatever conflicting statements he makes. Right now, we're seeing a buildup for ground ops targeting Iranian islands, and I still believe we're moving in that direction. https://t.co/lzjb6aKBYk
— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) https://twitter.com/DecampDave/status/2039148053932789924?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Meanwhile, diplomacy continues to look like theater. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he has "no faith" in talks with Washington, confirming that while messages have been exchanged - but that "no negotiations are under way." On the battlefield, Iran’s IRGC claims its latest barrage - spanning more than 100 heavy missiles, attack drones, and roughly 200 smaller rockets - hit targets across Israel and US military positions in the Gulf. Installations in Bahrain and Kuwait have also been hit, the group said, claiming that US helicopter was destroyed. The IRGC has newly https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/1/iran-live-trump-says-no-deal-needed-to-end-war-isfahan-steel-plants-hit to keep attacking with "full intensity and power" - suggesting this is far from over.
Ayatollah Breaks Silence with Message Praising Hezbollah
The new, younger Ayatollah Khamenei - who may have been wounded in the early days of US-Israeli strikes, hasn't been seen in any public way, not even on TV, throughout the war. There have not so much as been any official recent images of him circulated.
But Mojtaba Khamenei has apparently been issuing some limited written statements, mainly encouraging foreign proxies in their joining the war against US and Israeli forces in the region. State media has indicated he's not making public appearances given the ongoing relentless bombing campaign and the Islamic Republic's wartime footing.
The 56-year old Khamenei has on Wednesday praised Hezbollah for joining the war against Israel. Hezbollah has been launching hundreds of rockets on northern and central Israel, amid an emerging ground campaign in southern Lebanon, also as Israel bombs Beirut from the air. In the new words carried by Iranian state media, he praised Hezbollah for its "perseverance, steadfastness and patience" against "the most ruthless enemies of the Islamic world."
* * *
https://store.zerohedge.com/products/zerohedge-shirt
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 04/01/2026 - 21:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uae-poised-join-anti-iran-operations-trump-rips-nato-paper-tiger-says-exit-beyond