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Last Notes

2023-06-07 23:11:47 UTC

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📅 Original date posted:2022-07-13
📝 Original message:> The emission curve lasts over 100 years because Bitcoin success state requires it to be entrenched globally.
It effectively doesn't. The last 100 years from 2040-2140 only emits a
pittance of about 0.4 of all bitcoin.
What matters for proper distribution is the shape of the emission
curve. If you emit 99% in the first year and 1% in the next 100 years,
your emission "lasts" over 100 years, and you achieve a super low
supply inflation rate immediately after 1 year, but it's obviously a
terrible form of distribution.
This is easy to quantify as the expected time of emission which would
be 0.99 * 0.5yr + 0.01* 51yr = 2 years.
Bitcoin is not much better in that the expected time of emission of an
bitcoin satisfies x = 0.5*2yr + 0.5*(4+x) and thus equals 6 years.
Monero appears much better since its tail emission yields an infinite
expected time of emission, but if we avoid infinities by looking at
just the soft total emission [1], which is all that is emitted before
a 1% yearly inflation, then Monero is seen to actually be a lot worse
than Bitcoin, due to emitting over 40% in its first year and halving
the reward much faster. Ethereum is much worse still with its huge
premine and PoS coins like Algorand are scraping the bottom with their
expected emission time of 0.
There's only one coin whose expected (soft) emission time is larger
than bitcoin's, and it's about an order of magnitude larger, at 50
years.
[1] https://john-tromp.medium.com/a-case-for-using-soft-total-supply-1169a188d153

2023-06-07 23:11:47 UTC

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📅 Original date posted:2022-07-13
📝 Original message:> There's only one coin whose expected (soft) emission time is larger
> than bitcoin's, and it's about an order of magnitude larger, at 50
> years.
Make that two coins. For DOGE it is 33 years.

2023-06-07 23:11:32 UTC

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📅 Original date posted:2022-07-10
📝 Original message:A parallel discussion is taking place at
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5405755.0

2023-06-07 23:11:25 UTC

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📅 Original date posted:2022-07-09
📝 Original message:> New blog post:
> https://petertodd.org/2022/surprisingly-tail-emission-is-not-inflationary
A Tail Emission is best described as disinflationary; the yearly
supply inflation steadily decreases toward zero.
> Dogecoin also has a fixed reward
It started out with random rewards up to 1M doge per block, with the
maximum halving every 100K blocks, until the fixed reward of 10K doge
kicked in at height 600K.
> If an existing coin decides to implement tail emission as a means to fund security, choosing an appropriate emission rate is simple: decide on the maximum amount of inflation you are willing to have in the worst case, and set the tail emission accordingly.
Any coin without a premine starts with infinite inflation. Bitcoin in
its first 4 years had yearly inflation rates of inf, 100%, 50%, and
33%. So deciding on a maximum amount of inflation is deciding on a
premine.
While in the long term, a capped supply doesn't meaningfully differ
from un uncapped supply [1], the 21M limit is central to Bitcoin's
identity, and removing this limit results in something that can no
longer be called Bitcoin.
[1] https://john-tromp.medium.com/a-case-for-using-soft-total-supply-1169a188d153