Framework to live with integrity: health, family, work, money, purpose. Pen name. Personal experience only, think for yourself. Bitcoin. Economics. Finance. Values.
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npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn Profile Code
nprofile1qqsgykwannfv89h6x24wvh30p832cvnd0vlht02fxuk802r4kp309kspz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduq3yamnwvaz7tmsdamhyetvv9uju7re0g50cc78
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2026-03-30T15:54:38+02:00 Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Three phases to a Bitcoin halving cycle. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Not salvation, but better than doing nothing and hoping the system will fix itself, or worse waiting for the government to do something. We are all under some sort of systematic control. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Sixty, eighty, fifty. It does not matter to me. One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. Had this exact conviction at twenty thousand, watched it fall to sixteen, watched it climb back to thirty, kept stacking. Still have not sold a sat. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Bitcoin One Million by Krueger and Sigman makes one argument cleanly: $1M Bitcoin is inevitable based on a 48-month power law with R-squared of 0.99. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden In an age of infinite output, the only thing that appreciates is you npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Q2 is closed. 71 workouts. 45 posts. 77 hours writing. 42 hours reading. Net worth down 8.6%. Bitcoin down 32% and I didn't sell a sat. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden This week two Bitcoin voices who do not agree circled the same metric. Visser wants the 200-day, Consorti says we just broke the 200-week. Same number nearly, different framework. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://blossom.primal.net/2ccd79c3a85120eb871087bcb93d0bb7ffea2fe42cf760c9aec83a246edef2e4.gif npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Father's Day. Wife took the kids to Costco and told me to do whatever I wanted. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://blossom.primal.net/2ccd79c3a85120eb871087bcb93d0bb7ffea2fe42cf760c9aec83a246edef2e4.gif npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden It’s self fulfilling until it isn’t, then what do you think happens? npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Alphabet recently raised $85B in equity. Largest offering ever. The four hyperscalers are guiding to $700-725B in 2026 capex, up 70%+ from last year. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Math is worse probably only 5% npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Import and export price indexes May 2026: The last time the pipeline looked like this, the Fed had to hike rates from 1.75% to 5.25% in 16 months to drag CPI from 9.1% back to 3%, and Warsh walks into his first FOMC meeting this week with a president demanding rate cuts, an energy war with no exit ramp, and producer prices screaming that the worst of it hasn't hit the consumer yet. Going to get interesting from here. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Holy shitballs, PPI pipeline on fire, this is 2021 all over again… npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden For anyone living on a paycheck, buying groceries, filling a gas tank, and paying an electric bill, inflation is not under control. The math is simple. Prices up 4.2%. Wages up 3.4%. The difference compounds every month. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Nominal wages go up. Prices go up faster. The paycheck grows. The purchasing power shrinks. The headline says raise. The math says pay cut. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden I love living in a neighborhood where all the Dad’s yell slow down at cars passing through. Slow down. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden The potential sitting inside the average person is staggering and most of it is being drained through their eyeballs into a phone. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Good question, I’ll bet on Bitcoin fixed supply over fiat wages npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Two BLS reports this week tell the same story. Productivity up, labor share at a 79-year low, real wages falling. Then today: 172K jobs added, almost all in the lowest-paid sectors. Long-term unemployed up 524K over the year. The economy produces more with less and the gains go to capital. The 4.3% headline is a mask. Build accordingly. #bitcoin #grownostr npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Bunch of babies around here, worst time ever? Bitcoin is on fire sale and everyone is complaining, get it together guys, zoom out. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Labor share of output just hit 53.7%. Lowest since 1947. Economy grew output 3.2% with 0.4% more hours. Real compensation fell. Manufacturing is producing more with fewer people for six years running. The productivity gains are real. They’re going to capital, not labor. Nobody is coming to fix this for you. #bitcoin #grownostr npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Truth npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden The 21 million is the answer. Credit money survives because it can always be diluted, the margin call never fully arrives because the escape valve is always open. Bitcoin closes the valve permanently. Digital credit faces the same margin call as analog credit the moment people understand that 21 million means no bailout, no expansion, no escape. Decentralization and security are the enforcement mechanism. The fixed supply is the sentence. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Time will tell, I’m confident in the the network npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden BLS Q4 2025 wage data dropped today. The headline is +4.2%. Sounds decent. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden The job is temporary. The skills are permanent. Build skills that travel, not loyalty to an organization that would restructure you out tomorrow without blinking. #bitcoin #grownostr npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden MSTR is likely to have 1 million Bitcoin before the end of this year at the current rate of accumulation… npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/mf-sunday-coffee-weekly-content-recap-9e5?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://blossom.primal.net/a55dfe4189f213026b08b1e7e40ee5101927a615d736ca105bfc07f864cc4752.jpg npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/mediocrity-the-disease-nobody-wants?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=title npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://blossom.primal.net/d0f07265aefd82312dda79c7cf0ccb4f87045390564b164c2a79a51dd6c1829f.jpg npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/5c68442d2afc42d7ba2696e4cd393729 npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/conviction-a-letter-to-my-kids npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://blossom.primal.net/69b2b97a54ab55aa435602c8be60ba3f0640793d6f0e925437d72f49a0a6391b.jpg npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/sunday-coffee-weekly-content-recap-838 npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://open.substack.com/pub/moralfiber/p/purpose-the-pillar-that-holds-the npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden This is rad, now do the same for the yachts npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Reveal your true self npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Debt: A Conversation With My 25 Year Old Self (Don’t Fuck It Up Dummy) npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Today is a good day to buy some npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Strategy BTC acquisition chart is crazy, this can not go on forever npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Last week was MSTR’s third largest BTC purchase ever representing 4.2% of their total stack, the other two were in November 2024 and a combined 13.2% of their current stack. In April of this year alone they have purchased 52% of what they did in all of 2025. Fucking bananas. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden 368 GW of wishful thinking - ERCOT’s recent load forecast npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Great book, the system is still broken ~150 years from now! “Ad aspera, per aspera.” Theft of Fire by Devon Eriksen. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden “scarcity shifts from knowledge to coordination” npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden “Portfolio managers and analysts cost money and get bonuses. Computers don’t” npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden AI is making software abundant while creating scarcity inflation on goods. Upper middle class knowledge workers are adopting AI fastest but running twice as hard just to stay in place. Bitcoin fixes this. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden US Imports/Exports March 2026: Import prices +0.8% MoM, +2.1% YoY. Export prices +1.6% MoM, +5.6% YoY. This is not a one-off spike; it's a trend with momentum. Even with the Strait open this momentum will take months to work its way through the economy. Bitcoin knows this. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden PPI March 2026: goods will lead future inflation prints, the greatest increase to goods in 2 years driven by energy (gasoline). Goods rise (1.6%) while services “fall” or remain flat (0.0%), produced goods largest increase in nearly 4 years, this is a problem. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Inflation is going to +6%. Prints on the left of the 12 month curve are 0.0-0.2, energy is the primary driver (again), and the rate of increase is outrageous. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Another Billion, Another Monday… npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://substack.com/@jackmdurden/note/p-193312174?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://substack.com/@jackmdurden/note/p-193312468?r=7daxa5&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Life is unfair, we are only in control of how we respond. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Okay I figured it out, Preston is doing one of two things; 1) lost all faith and conviction in Bitcoin and trying to figure out what to do next or 2) quietly building an army and coalition to tackle quantum threats to Bitcoin in an organized and productive fashion. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Sunday Coffee - April 5th, 2026 npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Development - don’t get left behind npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Preston Pysh, you are sorely missed, hopefully you will re-appear to drop some major knowledge or news soon. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Always remember how the government once responded to crisis…I often wonder about the people doing the work…and how this day of moving sand to a beach was explained at dinner. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden The March report looks steady on the surface 178,000 jobs added, unemployment ticked down to 4.3% but a few undercurrents are worth watching. February was revised and the labor force actually shrank by 396,000 people, meaning the unemployment rate improved partly because fewer people were looking for work, not because the job market got dramatically better. The number of marginally attached workers jumped by 325,000 and discouraged workers rose by 144,000. Long-term unemployment (27+ weeks) is up 322,000 over the year and now accounts for over a quarter of all unemployed. Federal government employment continues to bleed and financial activities are also trending down. Health care carried the month but a big chunk of that was physicians returning from a strike rather than organic growth. Wage growth at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year is cooling. Net this is a labor market that's holding together at the headline level but showing increasing signs of softening underneath, particularly in labor force participation, duration of unemployment, and the growing ranks of discouraged workers. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Day one after quarter close Bitcoin up almost 3%, same exact thing happened in 2022, then sideways summer and new low late in the year… npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden https://blossom.primal.net/3af3ce0c16357ea93c26b2eb74e2a226f5a3fbafdae6807acbb2b84c8c63080a.jpg npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Is this where Preston went? npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Where did Preston go? I miss his podcast wisdom and perspective. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Amen npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden During the summer of 2021 inflation became persistent. Inflation peaked at over 9% nearly a year later…imports front run and foreshadow inflation…this is going to get ugly. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Paradox of abundance and why you need a framework to live by… npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Bitcoin fixes this, DOGE 2.0 npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Feels like we’ve been here before… npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Inflation and Rate Increases Coming In Hot… npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden 40% of Americans didn't read a single book in 2025. The average American reads just 8 books a year, sadly the median is 2. Reading more doesn't require a massive lifestyle change. It just takes a few minutes each day: npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden In 1938 Germany, the Nazis passed the Reich Compulsory Education Act, which for the first time completely outlawed homeschooling nationwide and made it a criminal offense not to send children to state-approved schools. The goal was centralized control over education to indoctrinate youth with Nazi ideology and eliminate alternative influences. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Abolishing daylight savings time has bipartisan support, popular approval, and absolutely zero chance of happening because the government is completely broken. I know this because I cannot explain why we still have daylight saving time and have it make sense to a five-year-old. npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden “When you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. Most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. Many of them are so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it.” — Morpheus, The Matrix npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden “You have power over your mind—not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” — Marcus Aurelius npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden Wow rad, just set it up! Thanks 🙏🏼 npub1sfvam8xjcwt05v42ue0z7z0z4sex67elwk75jdevw758tvrz7tdqyjulgn JackMDurden “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” - Edmund Burke
