prc30
Peter Alexander

China 30 year veteran

Joined Nostr at block 777177

Public Key

npub1yy3uc7y85faxy5cwq8f574yda3j9457p7r9h2ymlkwlx6lp8f4vsy4kawc

Profile Code

nprofile1qqszzg7v0zr6y7nz2v8qr5602jx7cez660qlpjm4zdlm80nd0sn56kgpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejszrthwden5te0dehhxtnvdakqz9rhwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjmcprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvqyvhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnsd3jkycmgv95kutn0wfnsz9thwden5te0v4jx2m3wdehhxarj9ekxzmnyenxc8h

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npub1yy3uc7y85faxy5cwq8f574yda3j9457p7r9h2ymlkwlx6lp8f4vsy4kawc

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Last Notes

2026-07-22 02:26:25 UTC

Starting to see some commentary centered on Chinese open source models “used by criminals” as an argument for restricting access.
Now where have I heard that argument before?

2026-07-20 13:12:44 UTC

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Of course. Same playbook with TikTok. In the end it’s all about regulatory capture.

2026-07-20 12:49:51 UTC

This should be fun. Trump administration looking at ways to curtail access to Chinese open source models.
My thinking is that they’re not though through all the second and third order effects from such a move.

2026-07-20 00:58:14 UTC

Last week as insane here with China delivering a series of body blows to the American “tech stack”.
Xi Jinping, the Chairman of the Communist Party of China gave his full throated support to open source AI development. Never in my wildest dreams would I have expected “The Party” to take such position.
Moonshot releases Kimi K3 and the model quickly becomes the center of everyone’s attention. And not only is there a consensus that the performance is just shy of the American frontier models, but there aren’t any guardrails. Just use Kimi to do what you need to do. It was only a month ago with Zhipu released GLM 5.2. The iteration process in just instance.
Finally, there was the listing of CXMT which is now the largest IPO of a Chinese company in a decade. The company is set to raise some $8billion all of which will be deployed to aggressively expand DRAM production capacity. The impact has been immediate if you just look at the price action of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micro.
I have no idea what to expect sitting here first thing on yet another Monday Morning.

2026-07-17 00:14:46 UTC

Um, there would appear to be some chatter that Trump is about to go Medieval on China during his speech tonight.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/trump-primetime-speech-elections-china/

2026-07-14 21:40:51 UTC

Knowing something about how the IPO process here in China is run has me highly doubtful of a Deepseek listing this year, but it’s the messaging that counts.
Same, goes for CXMT going public this week. A maximum pressure campaign. Sowing the seeds of doubt as to the economic efficacy (ie valuations) among those companies operating the American “stack”
Will now be paying even closer attention to Xi’s speech on Friday.
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/deepseek-preparing-for-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-end-2026

2026-07-05 08:04:17 UTC

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Or perhaps this….
https://blossom.primal.net/cf058149823fc4780d07534a6911e0210a9b2713047738aab904b23e55b69b6f.jpg

2026-07-05 06:02:26 UTC

Ahhh the good ol’ days.
https://blossom.primal.net/1664db44f41d9441cbee1e75af87db3a64e2df7e726f40b9bf8b98fb2c4dae2d.png

2026-07-04 05:46:46 UTC

Happy 250th all from Shanghai. Only flag that officially flies here.
https://blossom.primal.net/45325ed6eff9fc5ffac82849ab8a3d23c254c1d5ad9fa5ab2988f3f5f11c900e.jpg

2026-07-04 05:45:49 UTC

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Very funny. Many years ago, in a previous life, I did a lot of business in Beijing. Had more erguotou (二锅头) than I care to recall. And that’s the brand with the red star. Brutal.

2026-07-03 13:57:32 UTC

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Dude. I love it. But it always levels me.

2026-07-03 11:49:16 UTC

IYKYK
https://blossom.primal.net/acb59d49ea54cfc7177c72ceeabb018da931f0f4adc20c31021f0c4b5c75ac5a.jpg

2026-07-01 03:41:38 UTC

For those of you monitoring the AI pitched battle between China and the United States, I would strongly advise watching this very short clip.
This is Frank Dikotter and from his comments you will find how supposed China scholars continue to dismiss outright how formidable China is as a rival. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute which, for me, remains a primary platform that continues to errantly downplay China’s ability to not just compete but its ability to successfully wage unconstrained warfare.
The hubris and conceit that permeates throughout the American Think Tank and policy communities infuriates me to no end. China needs to be take both literally and seriously.
https://blossom.primal.net/5c2a7dc741eaa2dad058beaff0c444b806f6db4b32a6bdf81f55602f6805b529.mp4

2026-06-30 08:43:20 UTC

Let’s see if I can upload this video.
https://blossom.primal.net/9794cb83b35ea7da948496ca4eff937968dff9740fe0a37e544583f98868938a.mov

2026-06-29 03:42:51 UTC

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Events are playing out faster than even I had anticipated here on the ground.

2026-06-29 03:42:13 UTC

Gold accumulation funds are gaining traction here in Shanghai. Had a unique conversation over dinner on the weekend. Topic came up and I asked about taking physical ownership.
Many there said you could do so. I asked if anyone had tried to get the gold from the bank. No one had tried.
The next day (a Sunday I might add) several of those people went to the bank and took delivery. Then sent me the pic below on WeChat. A 10 grab bar with certification.
https://blossom.primal.net/7a9a7e99bc08bfeaf436b1fae6bfcd128f963cfd2e99d41e75fad1861b3398ba.jpg

2026-06-28 04:52:47 UTC

The weekend Shanghai breakfast lines. If you see people gathering then you know you found the right spot.
https://blossom.primal.net/90847733ba3a1e8b90edec4f9d3a0de627ed8d336c58a0f8d0bffdb1415f133c.jpg

2026-06-22 06:56:46 UTC

Should be interesting to watch how this unfolds. Not yet deployed across the entire WeChat platform.
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tencent-begins-testing-ai-assistant-for-wechat-users-in-china-4751738

2026-06-21 12:16:07 UTC

Random pic while walking around Shanghai today.
https://blossom.primal.net/a57b073c7ac8ffedccc260f5cd6417769272f8f21cc9177d54f83b6001eefacf.jpg

2026-06-19 09:44:01 UTC

Happy Dragon Boat Festival to all who celebrate.
Late lunch and fun fact.
Been coming here for years. Six months ago they started including English to the menu.
https://blossom.primal.net/0665894c54035e316fb25b676485a1df534801dfdbffc40d57366094531c6cf6.jpg

2026-06-18 10:39:26 UTC

Since I’ve been challenged with uploading videos am posting this note here. A tad long but highly relevant to the current AI discourse.
Also @nprofile…f5lq tagging you as I believe Chinese open source models is a focus of yours. Hit me up if you want to have a conversation.
China Morning Missive
Another DeepSeek “Moment”
Well, here we are. Last week ends with Anthropic pulling Fable 5. Now, just hours ago, the Trump administration confirms that DeepSeek and dozens of other Chinese firms will not be added to the Entity List.
Much will be obviously made of that decision and yet this decision wasn’t even the most consequential announcement made today when it comes to the ongoing AI rivalry between American and China.
What could prove to be a major breach is the Microsoft announcement that it will be shifting its AI enabled assistant, Copilot, from flat-rate subscriptions to usage-based pricing. An obviously necessary move for a platform whose users were burning through compute faster than any subscription fee model could absorb. Expected. What was not expected came next: Microsoft stated that it was exploring the adoption of DeepSeek V4 to support a lower-cost option for users.
There was no commitment mind you, but the mere admission that a lower cost option was required and that a Chinese open source LLM was being considered defines where the AI contest between American and China now stands. Benchmark rankings among the American frontier models are no longer the primary variable in driving global adoption.
Price for performance is now the priority and on that measure the hyperscalers, not only their users, are adjusting behavior in real time. If Microsoft is having to reach for a Chinese open-source model to maintain adoption for its flagship assistant, the benchmark wars may have already been settled.
None of this should surprise anyone who watched the two countries diverge in how AI ambitions were defined. America set out to build God in a box, indifferent to the cost to meet the buildout of infrastructure or the demand for compute, so long as the markets keep funding the activity. No one asked whether a scalable product-market fit existed. No one, at least so far, has cared.
China set a different objective: not scalability alone but applicability and – critically – how AI could be deployed across industry to widen the manufacturing moat. What isn’t discussed enough is the degree to which China’s models have already been integrated throughout the economy. Even the decision to remain committed to an open-source strategy has delivered the competitive advantage of iterative speed. Each of the various players in China are leveraging the gains achieved by one model to advance their own model. It is for this very reason why there seems to be a new and improved Chinese LLM coming to market every single week.
The American obsession continues to produce models that myopically measure success through benchmarks even if their models are cash infernos with no end in sight. The Chinese discipline produces models cheap enough to support global adoption that is so attractive as to pull the attention of a leading American hyperscaler.
Here, however, is the message which needs to be conveyed.
You cannot be a little bit pregnant, and China is winning the race for global AI adoption. American policymakers and corporate executives either take on China with serious intention or admit there is no political courage (or financial bandwidth) to do what is necessary and be done with the façade. Make no mistake, the capability to address the challenge is well within American reach. The question is whether anyone has the stomach to do what is necessary and make the hard choices.

2026-06-17 01:31:31 UTC

Perhaps not directly tied to last week’s removal of Fable 5, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the performance benchmarks among the American frontier models aren’t the primary variable when it comes to broad, global AI adoption.
Earlier today it was announced that Microsoft is considering Deepseek for a lower cost Copilot alternative. Then came this news here that the US government has made the decision to forgo adding Deepseek to its ever expanding “entity list”.
You can’t be a little bit pregnant and American policy makers either need to take on China with serious intention or accept that there isn’t the political courage to do what is necessary and be done with the whole façade.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/06/17/us-deepseek-blacklist-cxmt-national-security-risks-.html

2026-06-16 02:53:39 UTC

That didn’t take long. My vocal critique last week of “Allied Scale” is already facing its first real test and the prospect isn’t looking good at all. If an American-led coalition can’t overcome the issue of rare earths what then of the hundreds, if not thousands, of other Chinese dependencies facing the G7 nations and their collaborators?
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trumps-critical-minerals-pricing-plan-faces-skeptical-g7-divided-industry-2026-06-15/

2026-06-15 08:31:05 UTC

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Just noticed that I was quoted - unbeknownst to me - in this article.
https://blossom.primal.net/756af702b59f5b59d8684eeafd2fcd54adeb0aa4b2173736ee67251540594ecc.jpg
#nevent1q…c65s

2026-06-15 08:12:46 UTC

Well, once again we have the Law of Unintended Consequences playing out for the whole world to see.
Zhipu surges 33% as Wall Street raises bets on China AI after Anthropic curbs https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/15/china-ai-zhipu-minimax-artificial-intelligence-race-washington-trump-anthropic.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

2026-06-14 05:10:23 UTC

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Hahahaha right? But it is a style, Kungfu Yoga.

2026-06-14 04:32:48 UTC

My wife amazes me. She headlined a massive yoga event last night. Brought out her unique style. The crowd of +200 went WILD.
https://blossom.primal.net/018089ed47a13494e310dc7b966c356606bbfb7592c3f293ed1ce0b8b7a583cc.mp4

2026-06-13 10:36:39 UTC

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Right?! And it’s not like the Chinese side is even trying. Zero ability to consider second and third order effects in Washington.
And this “deterrence” strategy goes far beyond just the Trump administration. It has been a whole of government exercise. Both sides of the aisle.

2026-06-13 06:17:03 UTC

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Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 is being dusted off.

2026-06-13 06:15:26 UTC

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You mean what happens to all those skilled Chinese nationals working for Anthropic and OpenAI? There’ll be a mass exodus of talent back to China.

2026-06-13 06:04:44 UTC

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For context.
https://blossom.primal.net/0173752541d7938ce956deb3a2b076c328f11e5a343484feeefd89f5bbf60c92.jpg
#nevent1q…32mm

2026-06-13 05:49:52 UTC

So on the topic of Fable 5, what happens to all the in-house Chinese engineers working that essentially built the Anthropic and OpenAI models?
Logic based on the government directive would mean none of those individuals would be permitted to any further work.

2026-06-12 16:07:34 UTC

This never gets old.
Have a great weekend all.
https://blossom.primal.net/d48dc10e8eebee2d4287d78bcab4437246d6165bd119e09329f08ef5d0dd6c6c.mov

2026-06-09 10:29:30 UTC

Such steak differences. Here we have China’s approach to a nationwide AI roll out and then you have OpenAI preparing for a massive IPO and all other American groups tapping capital markets left right and center.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/china-prepares-295-billion-plan-to-fund-nationwide-ai-buildout-bloomberg-news-reports/ar-AA25bgKh?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

2026-06-04 06:25:56 UTC

Saw somewhere here that more short videos were needed to build adoption. Decided to play along.
https://blossom.primal.net/0b4ab489e46973cd34431c8fa725a721047b3efea5eca4b4a4f4630ce823ae05.mov

2026-06-01 01:07:15 UTC

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Much appreciated. Any questions or feedback - critical or otherwise - is warmly welcomed.

2026-06-01 01:00:50 UTC

Did another long form interview last week. All things China. Covered a ton of ground and covered mostly issues that aren’t being discussed virtually anywhere else, at least that I can find.
https://youtu.be/es1JSeTDQaE?si=FOAJmqX6FRxORU3T

2026-05-30 02:45:26 UTC

Saturday morning walks here are the best. The city is quiet and at peace.
https://blossom.primal.net/24a441f8c6a245ac16dded132ee41275564f77889cdc3cb007e2f7f06ed68cb6.jpg

2026-05-26 12:54:12 UTC

Short segment on CNBC. First time back on NY on a very long time.
Source: CNBC https://share.google/YXBCD2TUGBA3gQNON

2026-05-25 09:41:51 UTC

This Prof Jiang bloke is playing the Icarus card. Wings, I suspect, are beginning to melt.
Or as the Chinese say 树大招风, the big tree attracts the wind.
Let’s see if he’s anywhere to be found in three months time.

2026-05-23 13:32:15 UTC

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That is correct. The state owns all of the land in China.

2026-05-23 11:31:59 UTC

Did you know that there are no property taxes in China?

2026-05-23 08:21:17 UTC

Started raining. Parked our bikes for a classic’s Shanghainese (late) lunch.
https://blossom.primal.net/86ecbbbe5fd61172851eee29a6aab52896136d95d41274187ef18f7e42077304.jpg

2026-05-22 09:40:17 UTC

For those affected by the ongoing supply shock in memory chips (DRAM), expect one Chinese company - CXMT - to arrive and begin to drive down prices (and devour market share).
A fantastic article here providing some detailed background as the company is set to IPO here in Shanghai.
Then will come another group - YMTC - with a core focus on SSDs.
If you ask me, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are about to face a major threat to their chips business lines.
https://autonews.gasgoo.com/articles/news/cxmt-unveils-the-aggressive-expansion-of-domestic-memory-chips-2056381885041795073

2026-05-22 07:48:40 UTC

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Oh very true. Shenzhen I’ve been to on too many occasions to recall. Love that city. Has such an edge to it even to this day.
And yes. High end cars are all over the place. Just had to laugh seeing one randomly parked early in the morning.

2026-05-22 02:57:30 UTC

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More evidence that the Chinese people I speak with are correct when they laugh anytime an American says “but we have freedom and aren’t surveilled by the government”.

2026-05-22 00:30:32 UTC

Good morning from Shanghai.
Always makes me laugh a bit when seeing a car such as this randomly while out for a morning stroll.
https://blossom.primal.net/5b55668273f983f34a14d5a4b806be4025ff7cd45109dbf3faf14023e0a20f58.jpg

2026-05-21 11:00:54 UTC

It was bound to happen. After being ignored for the better part of a decade, the business media has finally “discovered” China’s alternative to SWIFT.
Not a replacement. An alternative and one that operates completely outside the prying eyes of the New York correspondent bank network.
Highly recommend reading this article which, I should add, is actually from the Financial Times.
https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/renminbi-use-surges-as-iran-war-boosts-cips-yuan-nears-three%E2%80%91year-high/

2026-05-19 02:04:08 UTC

Putin arrives into Beijing later today. Expect there to be a great deal of commentary of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. The project has been under negotiation for years. Expect those negotiations to be concluded this time around.
It is a massive project.
https://blossom.primal.net/65f166c0c0b06a253ea1102929b595b742cc4dbad475065904bbf76f560c398c.jpg

2026-05-12 08:48:17 UTC

A word of unsolicited advice on this week’s events in China.
In advance of this week’s meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, my strong suggestion is that you ignore all commentary that will invariably be flooding traditional and social media.
It is a fluid situation and no one, including myself, has a clue what to expect.
The only point that I would share is how the last minute meeting in Seoul between Sec Bessent and He Lifeng plays into the expectations for the Xi-Trump summit.
To the point, if such a meeting is being held this close to the Beijing summit, then means many of the key issues haven’t yet been finalized. Even if the parties can come to some sort of tacit agreement in Seoul, whatever is agreed to would still need to be vetted by Xi and his team. There simply isn’t enough time for whatever issues are being hammered out to be agreed to by the principals.
Moreover, based upon the disclosed itinerary it does appear to be nothing more than a series of performative photo-ops.
https://blossom.primal.net/78ac34e64429098e2a9ab2190b9e19d41969dc9eab2d9007db64f6d6b93c5fae.jpg

2026-05-08 11:27:14 UTC

So much noise out there with ongoing events so allow me to provide a genuine piece of signal.
The China-Iran railway is still fully operational and the mere fact that this piece of infrastructure has been untouched tells me everything I need to know in terms of where escalatory dominance resides; Beijing.
Trump and Bessent are truly heading headlong into a buzz saw next week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/iran-turns-to-china-rail-link-to-try-to-bypass-us-blockade

2026-04-18 07:41:19 UTC

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Like more photos of this construction site or just more photos for Shanghai in general?

2026-04-18 07:22:27 UTC

Downtown Shanghai and it guts me every time these entire city blocks of old 石库门, traditional lane houses from the late 19th century, are taken down.
https://blossom.primal.net/f2b382017783231a8c17e48de2c003b7f18098b50cd4be04a699e2b64098ff14.mov

2026-04-17 08:11:19 UTC

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Physical books are actually an obsession of mine ever since I first walked into Strand Bookstore “home to 18 miles books” as a much younger man. All second hand. All cheap as chips.
Mine are just piled up all over a spare bedroom. Drives my wife insane.

2026-04-17 04:24:32 UTC

I have an unhealthy obsession over why it is so many people feel compelled to do podcasts with as many books as possible as their background.
A subconscious “appeal to authority” vibe if there ever was one.
https://blossom.primal.net/593ec81c41cde23f1ce804db9b2266656a816099f945bc5b68e922ae0d881a8e.jpg

2026-04-10 03:16:09 UTC

I’d like for you to watch this short clip and then consider just how widely this one example can be applied across all industries.
In addition, what China has done to low value add intermediate goods over the past 30 years is now being replicated with precious parts and value add machinery. The Germans in particular are seeing their production base being eviscerated in real time.
Check out this video, "exposing rolex made in china short" https://share.google/RjSNSlNcrINE2odg0

2026-04-10 00:15:12 UTC

China Morning Missive
Making sure that @nprofile…xmtr sees this. A significant shift and on that’s been a decade in the making.
In 2012, the Obama administration - for the very first time - weaponizes SWIFT and unironically does so against Iran.
In 2012, Beijing sees this move as an existential threat and tasks the PBoC to build an alternative. Three years late CIPS goes live.
For over a decade, there is scant adoption among global banks. That was never the primary objective. The critical aim was building a system that would provide Chinese banks a messaging and settlement network for trade denominated in Renminbi. And not just an alternative system to SWIFT, but a system that operated completely outside the New York correspondent banking network. Zero visibility to transactions and zero asymmetric advantage for Treasury
And yet people are out there today scrambling to come up with ideas as to how the Hormuz toll is being paid.
If you want evidence, see below.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3349516/chinas-yuan-settlements-hit-record-and-iran-conflict-looking-catalyst

2026-04-09 02:49:17 UTC

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I just don’t get the appeal of this Jiang guy, I mean I do but my money is that he’s living through his Warhol 15 minutes of fame.
He’s Chinese and lives in China and yet I’ve found his analysis on China to be highly superficial. Not sure if he is purposely pulling punches or is just not that up to speed on what is actually going on here.

2026-04-08 11:34:54 UTC

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Yes, the only way is through but know as well that the only way through is together and that’s what you have with Nostr. Always!

2026-03-30 09:54:53 UTC

Today’s CNBC interview linked below.
Source: CNBC https://share.google/e7V2bTojKpNXnJ0C0

2026-03-30 05:09:35 UTC

You may not like the message, but after last Monday’s social media post by President Trump the entire calculus fundamentally changed.
https://blossom.primal.net/0234ad8b41b864cffea3ef5fb56138f3096372509f9dda2ef7838a70cc2381c4.jpg

2026-03-27 09:08:02 UTC

Oh, and just now we have China going back into retaliation mode. Investigation into US trade practices.
I would add that throughout this week have had a number of conversations. The through line is a conviction that Trump bluffed on Monday with his post about “constrictive talks with Iran”.
My takeaway from those meetings was an interest for the Chinese to press the advantage. This move here, late on a Friday afternoon before American markets open, is a perfect example.
https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/108753

2026-03-27 09:03:27 UTC

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Seems to be and now accelerating with yields all over the place passing those high water mark levels from Monday morning before the Trump social media post.
Should mention that Chinese yields are holding steady with the 10Y at 1.81%

2026-03-27 07:13:21 UTC

Well, it would appear as though Japanese investors yeeted out of the JFB 10Y at the end of Asian trading.

2026-03-25 12:51:51 UTC

Anyone out there remember the massive popularity of the Datsun B210 from the 1980s?
Demand was a complete response to the oil shock of the 1970s.
Same thing hold here. Only question is how long the American domestic moat can hold before the proverbial damn breaks.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/some-us-car-buyers-envy-what-they-cannot-have-affordable-chinese-evs-2026-03-23/

2026-03-25 03:00:50 UTC

Quick note. If the nexus to any talks is Islamabad then know that there are Chinese fingerprints all over that decision.
And given recent reports of Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, reaching out to Tehran that makes the movement now being discussed all the more credible.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pakistan-positioning-itself-intermediary-us-184439678.html

2026-03-25 02:56:57 UTC

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@nprofile…7xxj you might enjoy reading through my Notes here. Some rather unconventional thinking and views on all things China. This would include a very recent talk with Adam Taggert.
Feel free to reach out if ever you’re looking for genuine insight into what is going on here locally.

2026-03-25 01:15:20 UTC

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As someone who lives in China, I can fully substantiate this claim.
That said, no one here uses “TikTok” (抖音) anymore. All social media is now on RedNote (小红许). Still, the algorithm is operated with the very same focus.

2026-03-23 03:15:08 UTC

Just watched the latest interview with Sec Bessent. Not his best performance. He truly seemed to be at wits end.
But it was his comment about how Treasury can monitor who is buying the now unsanctioned Iranian oil. If transacted in USD and done through the SWIFT network of correspondent banks in New York, then yes. Correct.
If, however, done with Renminbi and processed through China’s CIPS network then Treasury has zero visibility.
I’d wager it is the later and, critically, those shipments will have final settlement in gold.
https://blossom.primal.net/9d838d9babe92cedf513f5c35738b5866cdbc12120932d1df61224c8fe4db59f.jpg

2026-03-22 05:58:36 UTC

After a relatively longer than expected wait, Unitree was approved to IPO late on Friday afternoon.
Widely expected and the company is even already profitable. Now comes the rapid deployment of scale. The company produced and sold 5,500 units last year. Growth is now set to compound.
As I’ve stated on numerous occasions, China will do to humanoid robotics what it did to the EV marketplace. And it’ll be done in a matter of a few years.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/20/unitree-plans-shanghai-ipo-testing-interest-in-humanoid-robots.html

2026-03-20 07:54:57 UTC

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Thank you. Truly.
Was surprised at the overall positivity in the comment section. It really does seem like an increasing number of people are looking for a more measured assessment of China.

2026-03-19 10:28:23 UTC

China Afternoon Missive
Taiwan 2027 … A Complete Reversal in Posturing
And there it is. A statement which was widely expected by the small number of people familiar with the actual confines of the China/Taiwan issue. Granted, my outlook was for this message to be conveyed at some point later in the year. It would now appear that the Beltway consensus views deescalation of the long simmering tensions in the East China Sea as the priority.
For the past several years, there has been a barrage of commentary – an ardent conviction really – that planning was underway for China to take direct, kinetic action against Taiwan by 2027. That message was then taken up and aggressively amplified by virtually every single podcast platform focused on geopolitical events. The message was then wedged into every single traditional and social media conversation. And yet, today, we have the following statement.
“The [intelligence community] assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” according to the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, which was released on Wednesday.
I will not speculate as to why, now, there has been a complete reversal in the intelligence communities’ China threat assessment although it does seem that the Takaichi government in Tokyo was blindsided by Washington’s shift in its positioning on Taiwan.
What does need to be communicated, albeit at the risk of being repetitive, is the far more likely scenario when it comes to Beijing’s intentions over Taiwan.
Very much to the point, the strategic aim is to maintain the status quo. Beijing has been seeking for all parties, including the United States, to reaffirm the “One China” policy. Furthermore, it is widely held that Beijing has been seeking to formalize these terms into an expansive Fourth Communique. Included would be the provision that the agreed to framework would hold for a period of 50 years after which the parties would then revisit the issue of reunification.
The thinking on Beijing’s part is very straight forward. Over a long enough time period, reunification would naturally occur, peacefully, so long as the current incentive structures are left to evolve unimpeded. Basically, the calculus is structured where there will come a time when the Taipei leadership, and even the populace, will accept that the net assessment for reunification delivers both economic and political gains.
There are a host of critical paths underling this thinking and much could go wrong. The projections of China’s economy collapsing under the weight of debt or demographics could play out, as example. A future transfer of power in the CCP could go horribly wrong and lead to social instability. 50 years is a long time. What the proposed solution does achieve is a tabling of the issue even if that ends up being temporarily.
There is one final point that I wish to add and that plays to the point just made. With Taiwan almost entirely dependent on imported energy, Beijing is reported to have reached out with an offer to provide energy to the island if the Taipei leadership would consider reunification. Now there is no question that the offer is outright coercion, and the overture will be rebuked by the DPP, the ruling party. But we do now live in a world increasingly driven by second and third order effects and it was under the DPP leadership that the decision was made to decommission all of the island’s nuclear power facilities. This could quite possibly lead to political blowback domestically. And, as we see here, it also provides Beijing with a point of leverage.
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/3/19/us-intelligence-agencies-not-expecting-china-to-invade-taiwan-in-2027

2026-03-17 23:51:33 UTC

Ok, if you have an interest in a long form interview on my varied perspectives on China then you’ll enjoy this talk.
Granted, not a fan of the title. C’est la vie
https://youtu.be/sS2pyxgS21k?si=ilnZbpolvxGyjf9T

2026-03-17 09:21:24 UTC

Seems like China is having a Napster moment.
It never ceases to amaze me how the go to approach out of Washington is to angrily shake fists.
Diffusion is unstoppable. Get busy adapting or get busy being run over.
Senators tell ByteDance to 'immediately shut down' Seedance AI video app https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/17/bytedance-seedance-shut-down-tiktok-marsha-blackburn-peter-welch.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

2026-03-17 03:04:16 UTC

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Been meaning to reply to your note. Fantastic set of questions.
What you described with Covid, I lived. No question that the entire lock down episode of 2022 impacted many people. For myself, it was just another lived experience here in Shanghai. My wife is a local Shanghainese and it didn't bother her much. Yes, it was chaotic in the beginning. A bit Lord of the Flies for the first week, but then you just found a way to manage through it all. It was hardest on those with children and 90% of the foreign community here fled.
It all depends on who you talk to. There are those, as you pointed out, who left and left with a very bad view of how the government handled the situation. The vast majority, I would say, just got on with it.
Thank you again for the question and engaging on the topic of China.

2026-03-17 02:57:53 UTC

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Sorry for the delay in replying. Great question though.
Here's the thing about Hong Kong. You need to start by asking the question, from the perspective of Beijing, is Hong Kong a foreign or domestic jurisdiction? The answer is YES.
Hong Kong will be viewed as foreign when it suits the purposes of Beijing's overall agenda and domestic when needed.
As I see it, there is a desire to remain somewhat on top of the entire Bitcoin landscape, but to only do so in a controlled setting that resides outside the easy grasp of Mainland Chinese. It is for this reason why developments look to be inconsistent. It might look that way to outsiders, but for Beijing there isn't any inconsistency.

2026-03-17 02:53:20 UTC

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I appreciate you sending this through and have actually been rather vocal, albeit elsewhere, on the topic of the manmade islands in the South China Sea. What I view as the greatest geopolitical blunder by the Obama administration. Once the Hague Court of Attribution ruled in 2016, there should have been direct action taken given that China refused to abide by that ruling.
I also agree on the point of incremental assertiveness by the Chinese. It's been a mainstay in how China seeks to engage with its bilateral relationships and how it seeks to test American resolve. In fact, it has been my contention that the Russian move on Crimea in 2014 was aligned with China's initial foray in the South China Sea with building those islands.
All of this, I'd also stress, underlying why it is that China won't move on Taiwan at any point in the near future. An incremental approach remains the focus and Beijing knows it has far more work to be done.
To my pervious Note, what it was I attempted to convey was more about how the Chinese perceive engagement. The cultural differences. Not as much any commentary on China's views over Hormuz itself. Still, can't thank you enough for engaging on the topic. Thank you.

2026-03-17 01:57:26 UTC

China Morning Missive
Trump Derails the China Agenda
President Trump is now seeking to postpone his scheduled trip to China. My immediate response was that Beijing learned of this decision the same way we all did. From the President while speaking publicly with the media. If this is accurate, it would be a colossal foreign policy error.
The decision, more than likely, is in response to China’s unwillingness to assist with the Strait of Hormuz. Once again, President Trump took the path of applied pressure. And, once again, it was a gross miscalculation much in the same vein as last year’s trade conflict. Whomever is advising the President on China needs to be removed from that position with immediate effect.
“Come to Hormuz and assist with reopening the strait”. That was the ask.
Below is the formal response from yesterday afternoon.
– Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian "The recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters have disrupted international trade routes for goods and energy, and undermined regional and global peace and stability. China reiterates its call for all parties to immediately cease military operations, avoid further escalation of tensions, and prevent regional instability that could have a greater impact on global economic development."
Clearly, there was no possible way that either Israel or the United States would halt the ongoing Gulf campaign. China would have been very well aware of this fact and, to deflect from the pressure applied, conditions were placed on assistance as any shrewd geopolitical player would do when facing a similar situation.
Now, it could all just be happenstance and the decision to postpone the trip could very well be the result of President Trump needing to remain in Washington to oversee the military operations. Let us, for the sake of argument, assume that this is the case. It doesn’t matter. For the Chinese, the irritation comes from how the decision was both made and communicated.
For the Chinese, a last minute request to postpone a State visit is within the realm of acceptable diplomatic behavior. Not ideal, but it happens albeit infrequently. For Beijing, especially after the Paris meetings over the weekend, where initial pressure would have most certainly been applied, there would have been an expectation that the President might delay the trip. It would have been a known unknown.
Where the gross miscalculation comes into play is in how that decision was communicated. Very publicly. Whenever you are engaging with the Chinese, be it on foreign policy or commercially, any decision that fundamentally alters the direction of a relationship must, and I stress MUST, first be communicated and agreed to privately before either party makes a public statement. Such is clearly not the case here.
I’ve been on the receiving end of making that very mistake. You do not want to find yourself in that position. It impairs a relationship in ways that most will not truly understand or appreciate.
When an error in judgement is made such as we have here, you won’t even know that the relationship has been impaired. The Chinese side will smile and overtly express an understanding. In reality, there is a deep sense of betrayal, and your Chinese counterpart will fundamentally reorient how engagement will proceed from that point forward. What should be expected is a lower willingness by Beijing to move on any agenda item. There will continue to be dialogue, but the Trump team will now face a new slate of obstacles. Even previously agreed to terms will resurface. For the Chinese, there is no longer any goodwill.
My outlook is now firmer than ever. The Chinese will diplomatically impede all progress on the bilateral relationship and await the outcome of the mid-term elections.
Trump says U.S. asked China to delay Xi meeting 'a month or so' due to Iran war https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-china-iran-xi-war-trade.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

2026-03-16 07:51:08 UTC

Dont' expect any support from China on opening up Hormuz.
There was a press conference in Beijing a hour or so back. The question was raised if China will send navel assets to the region. This was the answer given.
"The recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters have disrupted international trade routes for goods and energy, and undermined regional and global peace and stability. China reiterates its call for all parties to immediately cease military operations, avoid further escalation of tensions, and prevent regional instability that could have a greater impact on global economic development."
What that means is for China to provide any support would first require all sides, including the US and Israel, to halt all military actions.
I can't even imagine Washington agreeing to such terms, let alone from Beijing.

2026-03-16 06:47:15 UTC

Yet another example of just how poorly the decision makers in Washington understand their primary opponent.
Seems as though I can’t go a single day when some new edict is produced that will generate the opposite outcome.
Hormuz is certainly important to China, but it is nowhere near as critical as it is being made out to be.
China has a massive spoke network of energy access points from Alegria to Indonesia and all point in-between.
Then there are the multiple pipelines into both Russia and Central Asia.
Yes, from a cost analysis it would be far better for Beijing to buy cheap oil from the Iranians. Being cut off from Qatar natgas will also have an impact. It’s the long game that matters.
Near term solutions to China’s energy needs are readily available. Keeping the US bogged down in the Gulf is an accelerant worthy of any near term pain.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/16/china-oil-reserves-trump-iran-war-hormuz.html

2026-03-15 05:33:20 UTC

Is there some rule that if you are interviewed by the media remotely that you are REQUIRED to have several hundred books behind you?
Always comes across to me that the individual in question is trying way too hard to telegraph their bond fides.

2026-03-14 07:50:28 UTC

Recall, the original quote has been expanded upon and, in doing so, makes it all the more impactful.
“The only way out is through.”
Robert Frost
“And the only way through is together”
John Green

2026-03-14 06:07:34 UTC

People calling this a “plot twist”.
More just a natural extension of how China has been operating on the margins for a decade now.
Systems are in place (CIPS offering an alternative to SWIFT) and final settlement in gold.
Current events have simply accelerated the process.
https://internationalnewsandviews.com/iran-strait-of-hormuz-yuan-oil-trade-tanker-policy-report-399394-2/

2026-03-14 01:32:53 UTC

It is a beautiful Saturday morning here in Shanghai.
Have a great weekend all.

2026-03-14 01:27:11 UTC

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What’s up? Here for any questions you might have @npub1cn4…3vle

2026-03-10 00:16:00 UTC

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Thanks for that. I had no idea.

2026-03-09 06:31:35 UTC

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Yes but not often. Wife isn’t a fan of any drive that is longer than an hour. A ton of amazing places three/four hours outside of Shanghai. Road system quality is roughly on par with the States without all the construction.

2026-03-09 06:29:24 UTC

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Stations are everywhere. Just yesterday wife and I drove out Nio, parked in a garage, went and had some noodles and came back and hour later. Fully charged. And here’s the kicker …. Total cost was Rmb41 or roughly $6

2026-03-09 06:27:21 UTC

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Shanghai China.

2026-03-09 06:26:59 UTC

Primal isn’t showing Notes that I’m posting in my own feed?? Odd
Damus is now the option of choice I guess.

2026-03-09 06:25:21 UTC

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Yes this is accurate to a point. I’d say roughly half the cars on the road today, periods more, are EVs.

2026-03-09 06:24:16 UTC

Something going wonky with my Nostr.

2026-03-09 06:22:27 UTC

China Morning Missive
Wuwei (无为) and the Cultural Chasm
Over the past several days I’ve been overwhelmed with client emails asking whether American activities in the Gulf are indirectly targeting China. It appears that the zeitgeist, including many Washington policy makers, is operating under the impression that China has been irreparably harmed and the Beijing leadership is at a loss for how to respond. My responses to those emails are short and to the point. “Ignore the noise. We’ve seen similar instances in the past (last year’s tariff episode?). Operate under the principal that China has prepared for this eventuality.”
It continues to escape the rationale mind of many that China operates at the lowest possible time preference. I make this point often and do so because it represents the singular first principal to be applied whenever any assessment of China is being made. Not only is the application critical to understand how Beijing goes about structuring policies, both domestic and foreign, it is central to the very process of decision making itself. More specifically, the importance lies in a recognition that, for Beijing, action is far more often found in demonstrable restraint.
There are genuine cultural anomalies present. They need to be considered and yet are always absent. Honestly, you’d think this would have been recognized by now given thirty years of observable Chinese behavior. It hasn’t. There isn’t just a cultural gap in America’s expert class when it comes to the topic of China, there is a cultural chasm.
Be it the Taoist concept of Wuwei or the teachings of Lao Tzu, Chinese society is grounded in a willingness to take the path of forbearance. An outward projection of stillness. Consider the character for patience, Ren (忍). It is comprised of two characters, blade (刃) and heart (心). What this means to the Chinese is that patience is a concept that requires a willingness to endure adversity.
Be mindful though. Non-action shouldn’t always be taken literally. It is a highly layered construct and quite malleable. Yes, the Chinese default setting is a static state, but every single event is viewed through its own unique lens. If there were to be an extreme event, then the Beijing leadership would most certainly resort to an immediate response. To the Chinese, however, there is rarely ever an occurrence that is truly extreme (ie unexpected) in nature.
Restraint is the consequence of ongoing preparedness present across China. At all levels of society, anxiety is born from uncertainty and the greater the uncertainty the greater the anxiety. And to counter uncertainty means a greater effort to prepare. Again, we only need to look back to last year. Contrary to all American expectations, the Chinese successfully countered the Trump administration’s escalatory tariff regime. This was achieved through advanced preparation. It was a widely held view in China that tariffs would be deployed and parties across the country simply planned well in advance for that eventuality. Exports were frontloaded and cash hoards were amassed. This provided time and flexibility to negotiate and do so from a position of relative strength.
So too is it the case with events now playing out in the Middle East. Beijing has well understood, and for decades, America’s motivations and objectives across the Gulf and preparations have been underway for quite some time. Beijing made overtures to create a separate series of regional relationships and did so with success. At the same time, there were various steps taken to mitigate all identified risks from future conflict. There was the aggressive campaign to build three significant rail lines (and pipelines) traversing the entirety of the Heartland. Alternative sources of energy (ex-Gulf partners) were established, from Russia to Indonesia to Africa. Even the domestic agenda of shifting to renewables and EVs can now be seen as having a geopolitical angle. China isn’t at a loss. China is, once again, very well placed.
If there is to be a focus, it needs to be on a fundamental realignment in how the American foreign policy and business community goes about assessing China. This must begin by taking China seriously and literally. Stop miscalculating China’s capabilities. Secretary Bessent famously claimed last year that China was negotiating “with a pair of twos”. He was wrong. Today, Secretary Wright is stating that “China is about to lose the second of three gas station suppliers”. Again, the Secretary will come to learn that he, too, is wrong. The script must be flipped and, moving forward, it is highly advisable that the expectation shift towards China gaining from hegemonic actions taken by America.

2026-03-09 06:08:55 UTC

2026-03-09 02:18:14 UTC

Once again, it is just another Monday morning here in Shanghai. Everyone just going about their day.

2026-03-09 02:11:16 UTC

2026-03-08 03:02:29 UTC

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Always. Or at least I aim to provide a thoughtful response and doing so with as little emotive layering as possible.

2026-03-08 02:59:56 UTC

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I clearly must be old, officially. Hard for me to tell what’s real and what’s agent generated. Hopefully people will know that all commentary on China I put out is human generated.

2026-03-07 12:26:28 UTC

Everyone who is saying “this war is really about China” hasn’t a single idea of just how prepared Beijing became for this eventuality.
Not a single lesson was learned from last years trade war. Bessent and pretty much every geopolitical cosplayer said China had no leverage. “China was playing with a pair of twos”.
They were wrong. They are wrong this time as well. China has seen this coming for decades.

2026-03-05 06:13:18 UTC

Here is a perfect example of why you need to tread carefully anytime there’s a flurry of commentary discussing China.
Be it Beijing’s motivations, or the supposed fact that – somehow – action taken by the United States in the Middle East has provided for escalatory leverage. It may sound like a cliche, but you must know that the Chinese are playing multiple steps ahead of Washington.
Perhaps some unsolicited advice. The next time you stumble across an individual weighing in on the China debate, simply ask that individual when was the last time they were in country. It’s all noise when it comes to the arm chair macro tourists and armchair geopolitical theorists.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/china-tells-top-refiners-to-suspend-diesel-and-gasoline-exports