Bitcoin OG since 2010, former laptop solo miner - which makes me (amongst) the first obsolete Bitcoin miner(s), blockstream satellite node runner, #2A rights user, radiologist
Public Key
npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd Profile Code
nprofile1qqsy7nuzs3nf3lmx4e06n7k5crzwk7pr47c8l204f65azhcjz7hfdnqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds6yju2y
Show more details
Published at
2026-03-04T03:37:33+01:00 Event JSON
{
"id": "fdc51b4dc036746961f7b196a7862ccbd15a28d8ab64dfd78bde85a51a0539b4" ,
"pubkey": "4f4f82846698ff66ae5fa9fad4c0c4eb7823afb07fa9f54ea9d15f1217ae96cc" ,
"created_at": 1772591853 ,
"kind": 0 ,
"tags": [],
"content": "{\"banner\":\"https://image.nostr.build/842eb076243fe73b8e5af11189295e42fa3c6636c80584c35dce391c05d9f2e9.jpg\",\"about\":\"Bitcoin OG since 2010, former laptop solo miner - which makes me (amongst) the first obsolete Bitcoin miner(s), blockstream satellite node runner, #2A rights user, radiologist\",\"picture\":\"https://image.nostr.build/768d70206f3c17a9bc825aca313a16f6906813beb876795fa59154c8fc3ebd8d.jpg\",\"name\":\"drgo\",\"website\":\"https://quantoshi.xyz\",\"lud16\":\"[email protected] \",\"nip05\":\"[email protected] \",\"display_name\":\"Quantoshi.xyz\"}" ,
"sig": "5f346c4e0832efeb7ae50ee72c252f6a90c06fa6c646fcf6d9d9dc87ad148570a53bf9516181fedb0ba4c0f84b98ed4172c20e1d45dff41209d414af7ad2dafb"
}
Last Notes npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo This is much much deeper than abusing power by exploiting pseuodmedical reasoning… It is much worse than that. They had to destroy the economy while there was no debt ceiling to get enough money created to steal first. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo It degrades bitcoin as much as using bitcoin. That’s it. There is a nontechnical consideration: if pegged side chains like liquid and citrea become more valuable than bitcoin per block, moving chain forward as opposed to reorg in low subsidy era becomes trickier for miners. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Naturally. It all makes sense now. ::tinfoil hat:: npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If you want to see a genuine attack against bitcoin, it won’t come in the form of a polite prunable op_return that follows consensus rules. One can argue the cheaper method of embedding data is the greater attack, but to argue either is a big attack is folly. Even the ordinals spam is no more harmful to bitcoin node resource constraints than a fully used block…so if Bitcoin being fully used is bad, then bitcoin has bigger problems than spam. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yeah but he is really nice about it, because, you know, an ideal monarch acting nobly is far better than any other government ever employed by man…because no monarch has ever been wholly good. But such an argument is lost on monarchists. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You can represent CP as text. It’s just another encoding. There’s even literally a text representation for sending binary data over email that has been commonly used for decades. Hiding this fact from knots supporters is key to getting their belief in the knits system. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I appreciate your technical contributions to this topic. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Node raping? lol…don’t get me wrong, I love Luke m’s quirkiness but that’s a bridge too far. I hope he sticks around and finds a productive role when the dust settles. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo This is a long technical discussion, but it’s well documented in BIP -110 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo They have a good hearted desire to eliminate spam by unwittingly choosing two unwise courses of action that 1) reduce bitcoin utility and 2) promote miner centralization…just because they mean well doesn’t preclude them from being enemies, even if retarded. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo No, but hats off to @npub17u5…t4tp for making it. It took me a while to find the minuscule number of signaling blocks…so that’s good! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo As a physician, I prefer to refer to this self removal of waste as enemas of bitcoin. BIP110-2 will be removal of all but approved public keys. Or address registration with the “does not contain spam” registrar. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’ll have to add this descriptor to my suite of wallet backup tools. Was your miniscript just tr(m/npub)? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You should have met fluffy pony…nice guy. He would also tell you ring signatures are too big for high volume use. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If GDP is gross domestic product, what would be the GNDP? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yup. Even if your car was worth $0, the cost would be the same. You see, insurance is two parts: on you for the harm you may cause to others by driving it ($1200) and on your car — the amount they pay if you harm your car ($0 if you own the car, not the bank) npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Then marry immediately npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo lol npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo What does the M mean at the end? Those numbers are too large for it to mean million npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Right. Gotta setup #2 to be a liar so he doesn’t win next election. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Thx. I’ll pass. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Art is scary AF…they will have to invent a new religion to help people deal with the beyond intense fear this creates in the heart of all mankind. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Stop scaring me npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The funny thing is: Bitcoin does very little, by design. So $mostThings.doAlmostAnything() > Bitcoin.doAnythingOtherThanBitcoin() npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Nah, endless stream of consciousness regarding feelings and other people’s feelings and whatifs that almost certainly won’t apply… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I’ve still never understood the taint issue…the only thing I can sort of see as being a real issue is the issue of fungibility…if your output contains stolen property, that brings with it a whole host of legal issues and n meat space. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yes. But explain taint…it’s not clear to me that the micro outputs have anything to do with making it easier to track stuff on a fully public ledger. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Praying for you and your family. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Death itself would be scared of such drones, undoubtedly. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Greater than hanta virus for sure! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Scary AF npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I must admit, I am really impressed by the lizards at blockstream…I’ve been playing around with Andrew Poelstra’s codex32 project for mnemonic string representation of the BIP-39 seed phrase…I love how I can purposefully change characters in the seed backup string and it can tell me which character is wrong and what to change it to. Now I’m working on making this trick work for xpubs and wallet descriptors. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Preach! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Ain’t life random? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Spot on. Thx for sharing! npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Nope. No users so no impact beyond encode/decode npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo As of now, it can do just about any type of miniscript wallet, but everything will change in terms of format on the wire, so don’t hold your breath…it’ll be a while. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Ah, i see. Not the tiny line at the bottom. A lot of “mobile” sites are automatically rendered when screen width is below a certain threshold. What I would do is open the website on desktop but make the window small before loading the site (may need to clear browser cache) for force load the mobile site on desktop. After loading mobile on desktop, right click and “inspect” element and see if you can find a corresponding element ID and give that ID to your AI and ask them to set the corresponding parameter to your desired value. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo This? Way way way at the bottom? https://image.nostr.build/2b95b545c05250da199a5de215fdf5d775697a24cb29ba6d59dd42ab5f50e069.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Screenshot? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Getting closer to my goal of a hand written / metal stampable custom miniscript wallet backup system with fault tolerant recording and unambiguous character set. It can’t do full custom miniscript wallets yet, but it can do a fair amount of (fairly useless) wallet descriptor backups for well established types. Can backup everything from just wallet templates to specific wallet policies with keys and paths to a full fledged backup of everything including keys… But it’ll be a while yet before it’s truly usable. https://image.nostr.build/51b6ae390a3765432bb2152339c930cdf0770ebfa0f8f98ecd37b1d9975d044d.gif npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The rule I apply is the g sounds like the word in the acronym. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Some people don’t like the “Bitcoin is the second amendment of money” metaphor for a variety of reasons. While I still think this is the best metaphor, a distant second would be “Bitcoin is the condom of money.” npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I found the only accurately value euro note on the planet. #fiat #lies https://image.nostr.build/80be994c6739f46d2cd761cf084f1464be35be0f777a19ae72db3d0a5dd62a13.jpg https://image.nostr.build/15f6c37961329acb346b77abbd7fb896817e691792e67a0549f515ac11fa62f1.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo When Saylor says “All your models will be destroyed,” he might just mean “the end game is the same but the route will not be the extrapolation of the trend.” Bitcoin could “go parabolic,” in colloquial speak (or more precisely either switch to a higher power law exponent or to a very high rate for exponential growth) for a time and all models fail in the near/mid term but with many models ending up with same final answer. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Or the day of judgement already occurred and the judgement, well, you’re seeing it…this is it. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo People who read with a desired outcome in mind, paying no heed to the genre of literature they are reading. Language is complex and ancient cultures are not familiar to most. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The funny thing about that…it takes some of the smartest people to think deeply about ancient literature. And that’s why many go astray reading by desired outcome alone. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo People asked me: why are you breaking their necks instead of using your gun? I said “to conserve ammo.” But then they said, dude, this is laser tag. 🤣 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Sounds like shallow thinking more than a running joke. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Nobody really believes in the flat earth theory. It’s just a running joke / troll seed. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Not bad. Works out to about $8.80USD/lb…I got some bone in rib roasts (or fillet I guess as you call them) for $10/lb recently…but it’s American corporate farm slop…I processed 48.5 lb (22 kg) in to 36 steaks and gave the ribs to my friend along with the fat I trimmed and he gave me 1 qt rendered tallow. I should be good for the next month or two :) npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Wait for a solution to emerge. Actually, many solutions exist that are reasonable useable for nostr. Bitcoin has a different set of desirable properties for quantum signatures, and that makes it quite tricky to solve optimally. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo This I want to do more of… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Using a conservative bitcoin price model projected out further than is prudent, a return of 22% per year, every year (or average thereof) for _20 years_ is not unreasonable. This is a >50x return. https://quantoshi.xyz/1.2.5.1 https://image.nostr.build/8b8dba1bd262cbf63544f48b8ffeb2869b2156fd9a30163b47e8b847c49b8853.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo But look at the projected 20 year forward CAGR: https://quantoshi.xyz/1.2.5.1 A 50x return is not unreasonable. https://image.nostr.build/ebb9cd4140b9be6984b354689e81753f4efa97a0799e5a69f88a6a8cb3ff20ad.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo A zap and a 🫡 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo My best guess is $52,000 by the end of next month. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Bitcoin is for the living…or at the very least it doesn’t fund its own destruction…it should be noted that making quantum vulnerable coins valid for CRQC harvesting is the equivalent funding self destruction. I predict people will reject a dead bitcoin in favor of a living bitcoin and thus we will sunset public key exposed outputs within the next 20 years. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo My Bitcoin bubble model predicts a boring year. 5.9% CAGR for the next year. Trough of 17% down from here by May. Interact here: https://quantoshi.xyz/1.2 https://image.nostr.build/1ef8fdfb33e3e28fa30103dfbff5126859ad9d10edb589349c83f96b32f0d5c6.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Trying to get AI to work properly with retirement, bitcoin, conventional financial assets, retirement accounts, and taxes is really hard. So many rules AI is having a very hard time figuring out what to sell and how much tax to pay and opportunity cost of selling…I’m doing magic numbers for time horizon of opportunity cost, but in reality it should be a simulation derived parameter. Anyhow, you know something is fundamentally no good if it’s so complicated nobody can comprehend it. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo So I’ve been vibe coding up this bitcoin price extrapolator and have been adding new features as I go…well, I added a DCA accumulation extrapolator and then did a Saylor style borrow to accumulate option and then a retirement simulator using the Monte Carlo method over a Markov Chain…and then added different price models and then let users draw their own model over the price data …anyhow, I decided to try to do a multi asset retirement simulator which was challenging to get working…and then I tried to model taxes in the retirement section. And wow did this get complex. This feature will probably be my last and will take the longest to implement and test. At least a month. Taxes are way more complicated than pre computing 1 GB of MCMC results and setting up a 3 layered cache system for serving plots and making tab switching appear seamless… You’ll find it on the Citadel Planner tab at https://quantoshi.xyz/9 when it’s done. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The slope of the line that goes beneath almost every bitcoin price point ever had a slope of almost exactly 5 on a log log graph with proper t=0. Expect bitcoin price 2^5=32 times higher in 17 years or so. https://quantoshi.xyz/1 see user defined model https://image.nostr.build/14630e24c39aa185a2291350efea769def598af42444cd5279447682beadc711.jpg https://image.nostr.build/7140bdc29a59c64fcbd8880814d37108fabcefaa832aea456acb79bbc2bb0387.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Bad guys will exist. Either fight them or don’t. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Corrupt countries by definition can’t solve the problem. There will always be someone selling nature at a discount. Options to solving this include military invasion and bribery…but bad guys will always want more for nothing…raising consecutive generations of good hearted humans with better economic options hasn’t succeeded yet but might be the cheapest route to a solution. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Then the economics are wrong or someone is stealing…I think all humans have at least some claim to all of nature and the economics of hunting should account for this taking from all. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You can’t afford my body. @npub1el3…l27r npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I hear ya. The inevitability of death combined with the generally hard, brutal, and short life of most things in the wild doesn’t make trophy hunting seem right, but it’s not that much worse than what was gonna happen anyways. That said, I am in favor of making stuff like that expensive to generate funds to preserve wild animals and habitat. The economic incentives to kill and destroy are too high and need a proportionate economic counterbalance. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Works great until AI puts a link in at the end: Coauthored by Claude, click here to see generative prompt… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I think it is always sad when something has to die for something else to live. I think wasting meat is about as bad as hunting just to show off bones. But everything dies and I’m not opposed to trophies of this nature in general. I’ve gone hunting for meat with friends and learned how to field dress and butcher…it’s definitely a skill but those who think wild animals could possibly serve as human food supply in the event of economic collapse haven’t looked around and noticed how few wild animals there are (nearby) compared to humans. There would have to be many fewer humans for wild animals to sustain them — humans are really good at farming crops and animal husbandry and we would be really good at eliminating all huntable species if left unchecked. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Keeping natural resources from being used by bad guys to hold the world economically hostage is the real issue. That is to say, the rules aren’t set by the ruled. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo People, I think, want there to be this vast chasm between man and beast to reconcile the inherent sadness that must accustom eating meat. Don’t get me wrong, I only eat meat; I’m just honest with how it got to me. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I think animals are at the very least like 1-2 year old children who haven’t learned how to speak yet and probably more like 5-6 year olds without words… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo That’s awesome. I think people misjudge animals; we are not all that different. I can’t exactly speak to marsupials, but bones and organs of mammals all follow a very similar pattern…enough that as far as radiology goes one doesn’t need to learn much about any particular animal if they know anyone very well. Another observation: all mammals play and there are very well known examples of mammals doing economic calculation (fat cats don’t hunt)…they dream too……the more in to the similarities one looks, the more human language seems like the cause of misunderstanding rather than a real differentiating factor between man and animal. AI has deciphered complex bird language and grammar, for example… Now I want a kangaroo buddy 🤣 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Saturday. I need to make it more obvious what does what on the model scanner panel…like click row to plot radar beacon…I think I still have mistakes in retirement modeling too npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If I were a betting man, I’d bet on it. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If bitcoin price were not to drop lower, this would be the fastest trip from ATH to trough in Bitcoin history. https://quantoshi.xyz/8.23 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Check out the model scanner section on tab 1; put in any two of price, date, and quantile and it will calculate the third for all quantitative models. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The old one ran for like 40 years between service visits though 🤣 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Can a kangaroo really be a pet? Those claws are not the friendliest looking claws by any stretch of the imagination. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You should just look at nostr, it’s flattering. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I think I have a unique and genuine insight: bitcoin is following a power law with exponent 5 and bubbles superimposed on top making the exponent look closer to 6. A lot to explain, but summary analysis at https://quantoshi.xyz/8.5 Support power law model + bubble modeling or some periodic component are areas worth investigating. This think I’m getting fairly close with my bubble model; interestingly, there seems to be a relationship between area under the curve of the bubbles and power law exponent…high exponent predicts small bubbles and small exponent predicts larger bubbles…but floor and bubble ceiling converging. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Another important factor to consider in power law analysis: when do we start? Setting a proper zero time makes a ~100 fold difference in value when doubling bitcoin lifetime. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yup. Claude code. I added s2f and log period power law models tonight npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yes. Bitcoin follows a power law over a longer time frame than a straight line or an exponential. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Exponential vs. Powerlaw…PlanB’s Stock to Flow model is very useful over a certain range. But because it is exponential, there will come a time when it is not useful. Power law models can stay useful over a much broader range. It’s not that Plan B is “wrong,” it’s that the usefulness of his model has an expiration date. And he knows this. https://image.nostr.build/fec86d310d753ed19effdb71298d66d90b5226cd33a8a42d81fb56db4d4dfa9e.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The father of Alexander the Great commissioned a servant to remind him daily: “Phillip, you will die.” Memento mori. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If you had a bunch of Bitcoin price data, and you wanted to extrapolate in to the future for retirement or DCA estimating, and that data fit a power law, the natural thing to do would be to create a Markov model with transition probabilities derived from quantile power law fits to price data and then take several hundred weighted random walks to get a feel for where one ends up after say 10 years… This sort of thing used to take a while on a computer; I can now do it on your phone…sorta…I precomputed about ½ a gigabyte of simulation results for instant lookup, but I think I will figure out how to integrate @npub155m…dcvg so people can pay for the compute cycles to simulate their exact scenario. Is 50¢ for high quality digital graphs of your retirement too expensive? I think I’m gonna corner the sub-$1 financial planner market 🤣 Coming soon to https://quantoshi.xyz/ ! https://image.nostr.build/8cfe0aa8b81184134dfab82683d480a5cf656d85b5d281d91c7198695871288f.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo But only because you don’t understand op codes npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo lol, and you think your opinion matters when you can’t even understand the topic? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Totally agree. Which is why bip110 is a non-starter. You can’t deny people the right to spend their bitcoin. Imagine if your life savings was trapped because you were a cutting edge bitcoin user… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo You misunderstand. Bip110 disables advanced bitcoin key security techniques because they aren’t common and spammers can use similar constructs…but throwing the baby out with the bath water is unwise and denying users the ability to move economically relevant amounts of funds is also unwise npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo I think it would be safer and less contentious to partition space 90/10 instead of 100/0 with collateral damage npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Only morons think they can identify arbitrary data with accuracy. Look at the nonstarter bip110…freezing legit users funds because they can’t figure out a way to decide spam from not spam… npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo If you sent bitcoin to your own miniscript to do advanced security, bip 110 declares your coins to be spam and not allowed to move for a year. What about not blocking large UTXOs or something more based in economics? npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Denying people the ability to use their bitcoin stored in locking scripts that others have decided are not ok anymore is against that ethos but part of bip110 npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Spam is completely solved on a technical level. Full blocks, be they spammy or not, won’t kill bitcoin. That said, there is human utility in reserving block space for legit transactions. Maybe @npub1lh2…a9nk would consider a BIP targeting partitioning of the block space into standard and nonstandard subblocks…keeping transactions cheap has value to network growth. npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo The whole knots v core debate is the wrong one. We really should be arguing about partitioning block space for standard vs. Non standard transactions npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Decided to add some Bitcoin history and Bitcoiner quotes to the occasional loading screen on Quantoshi…so you don’t see the 1500 msec of caching behind the scenes…there is an Easter egg that will let you scroll through all quotes…102 good ones. Now go get stacking! https://quantoshi.xyz/3 https://image.nostr.build/a289482003d05b1150ad036336ec7a38a3a27328b3a6522dbf53a73782da2f2f.jpg npub1fa8c9prxnrlkdtjl48adfsxyaduz8tas075l2n4f6903y9awjmxqanthnd drgo Yeah. We solved spam a long time ago