<unnamed>

Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpr9mhxue69uhkkmn0wd68ytnwv46hgunfdejjucm0d5q3xamnwvaz7tmdd9ehx6m90yhrqdpwwd5sywjytt

Publishing to

knostr.neutrine.com

misskey.04.si

Last Notes

2026-03-12 23:47:47 CET

- reply

Thanks bro.
I’ve been taking a much-needed break from podcast interviews and social media.

2026-03-12 22:20:09 CET

- reply

Plebs + proof of real work for the win.

2026-03-12 21:51:06 CET

Because I like you, here's a free glimpse of an amazing chart that I'm regularly watching... 👀
Three data lines are overlapping:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI (multi-color line)
2. Global M2 (blue line)
3. Bitcoin price (red/green candles)
I still believe that the unimpressive bitcoin price performance in 2025 resulted primarily from the lack of a positive US manufacturing cycle since 2021.
Everything became distorted during the 2021 Covid-related, fiscal/monetary easing debacle, but cycles have a way of re-establishing themselves.
ISM Manufacturing PMI is finally starting to recover.
It will be interesting to see if the price of bitcoin responds in kind, as it (seemingly) has in the past.
Not a prediction, just some observations.
Cheers. 🍻
https://blossom.primal.net/d428fc79e6967527a568e95657b84c5c38726912aed4a3a357c35314116d2d96.png

2026-03-12 16:28:44 CET

Even after a suboptimal 2025, we are still here. 👀
Onward and upward.
(Not a solicitation to invest.)
Source: https://portal.barclayhedge.com/cgi-bin/mc_global/userSummary.cgi
https://blossom.primal.net/760f24bec667d50a5ceee7760297e760cca22eeddefd74b0b69b32fcddb791b2.png

2026-03-12 13:07:31 CET

Issue #2 of Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook is live! 🔥
This week: Follow the Liquidity
→ Global M2 vs. Stocks & Gold
→ Bitcoin as a leading indicator at peaks... but a lagging indicator at troughs
→ The asymmetry that most macro analysts miss entirely
→ SPX/Gold at 1.31 — and the 3 notorious dates in history when it was last here
Free readers get Charts 1 & 2. Paid subscribers get the full picture — including the most interesting charts.
Read it here: https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffross191961/p/dr-jeffs-macro-chartbook-issue-2?r=8bgxt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Not investment advice. Just the charts that matter.

2026-03-10 19:32:22 CET

Issue #2 of the brand-new "Dr. Jeff's Macro Chartbook" drops this Thursday, March 12th. 👀
Each issue: ~5 charts I'm actively watching as a fund manager, with commentary on what I think they're telling us. Macro, geopolitics, the occasional Bitcoin rant, and unsolicited health/wellness advice -- all included at no extra charge. 😁
If you missed Issue #1 -- the most important macro chart of the last 100 years -- you can read it here:
https://jeffross191961.substack.com/p/dr-jeffs-monthly-macro-chartbook
Note: I will never give individual investment advice. Don't ask. 😉

2026-03-10 19:13:04 CET

- reply

I didn’t know that was an option. Thanks!

2026-03-10 18:47:57 CET

A systematic process is ♾️ better than a prediction.

2026-03-10 17:48:19 CET

- reply

Haha... thanks Dan!
I didn't notice it until after I posted it... and now I can't edit it.
Thursday, March 12th, is the correct date. 🤝

2026-03-09 20:32:35 CET

- reply

Just as ISM Manufacturing PMI is increasing (a positive), global liquidity rate of change is slowing a bit (a negative). I'll try to touch on the nuances (and their implications) more in the newsletter. -- We are living in interesting times...

2026-03-09 17:38:29 CET

I'm doing a new thing. On Substack. 👀
Hopefully, it will provide value to some of you!
https://blossom.primal.net/c44ac727fac3c64c9b2d4730ac705cae776fc464e3e487bd4650effdb5960002.jpg
https://open.substack.com/pub/jeffross191961/p/dr-jeffs-monthly-macro-chartbook?r=8bgxt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2026-03-07 05:33:03 CET

- reply

Yep. Still holds true.
I’ll be astonished if the price is below $69k again any time after 2026.

2026-02-17 20:03:05 CET

Have you traded your savings account today, degen?

2026-01-14 20:18:55 CET

Based on the amount of comments (primarily on YouTube) that I am a "moron" who should "stay in [my] lane" and not discuss geopolitics because I am "way out of [my] depth"...
I would recommend that such folks take some time to actually read the National Security Strategy of the United States of America, which was published by the Whitehouse in November 2025.
Afterwards, if you would like to have a civilized discussion about my misinterpretations of the Trump administration's geopolitical and military actions/intentions, I would be amenable.
Here is a link for your ease:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

2026-01-14 16:24:46 CET

Another quarterly Mastermind banger with @nprofile…5gu2 , @nprofile…hs8c , and @nprofile…9pq8 ⚡
We discussed:
- Venezuela
- Taiwan/China
- Restructuring of the geopolitical world order
- Semiconductors
- Elon Musk's predictions
- The Clarity Act
- US Treasury yields
- Jerome Powell
- Bitcoin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzzFBvzONBo

2026-01-07 18:35:32 CET

Suspected US foreign policy "interests" for possible/probable intervention (in no particular order) by 2028:
1. Venezuela ✅
2. Colombia
3. Cuba
4. Greenland
5. Panama
6. Brazil
7. Manitoba/Saskatchewan/Alberta
8. Guyana
9. Nicaragua
10. Bolivia
11. Multiple Caribbean island nations

2025-12-29 17:06:16 CET

- reply

This is how I think about it comprehensively. Unfortunately, most people are degens who only care/think about how high it might go.

2025-12-29 16:06:09 CET

My 2026 bitcoin price guesses (in USD terms):
Average price: $145,000
As high as: $700,000
As low as: $50,000
(Just my guesses. Never individual advice.)

2025-12-27 17:56:02 CET

For investors:
“Don’t fight the fiscal stimulus” is the new “Don’t fight the Fed.”

2025-12-07 18:44:06 CET

Some guesses for 2026:
1. The Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate below 3.5%...
2. Which will spur economic growth and inflation...
3. Which will cause the long end of the Treasury yield curve to rise towards and above 5%...
4. Which will be unacceptable to Wall Street and the current administration...
5. Which will induce the Fed to begin yield curve control...
6. Which will cause material weakness in the US dollar...
7. Which will lead to further currency debasement...
8. Which will become fodder for large increases and volatility across risk assets.

2025-12-03 23:30:33 CET

Rather than peaking in 4Q 2025--as I had previously anticipated--important macro assets are actually showing signs of major cyclical bottoms at current levels.
In my opinion, the anticipated bear market for certain assets and sectors has been pulled forward into 2025... and 2026 looks surprisingly bullish based on the relevant macro and technical data points that I closely follow.
In light of this, I will be re-opening my small (award winning) friends and family macro-oriented, Bitcoin-friendly, multi-strategy hedge fund to appropriate HNWIs who share a long-term investment time horizon with me.
Per US regulators, Limited Partnerships in the hedge fund are only available to (verifiable) Accredited Investors and Qualified Clients.
If you are seriously interested in joining me in the hedge fund--and you meet the above-mentioned criteria--feel free to send me a DM.
Cheers.

2025-12-02 18:07:54 CET

You may think that you own your dollars or other fiat assets, but the government actually owns your purchasing power.

2025-11-23 02:48:18 CET

- reply

An epic take 😂

2025-11-20 21:24:43 CET

What I'm watching... 👀
Priced in gold, the last time MSTR was as oversold (in RSI terms) on the weekly charts as it is today was during the deep valley of the flash Covid recession in March of 2020 (see vertical green lines).
At that harrowing time, MSTR reached as low as $9 per share.
For a long-term investor, this may be a proverbial "blood in the streets" moment for MSTR shareholders.
Not investment advice... but interesting to note.
Thoughts?
https://blossom.primal.net/9e37ba56a0a8945196a4108bf860d8d36719fba73168c452d93042ea30126c07.png

2025-10-29 18:20:30 CET

The two most important (and generally overlooked) factors in determining (guessing) bitcoin's fiat price action over the coming quarters are:
1. Chinese liquidity
2. American manufacturing
I expect both to accelerate... materially.
Just my guess. You do you.

2025-10-28 22:10:17 CET

- reply

According to the "Abundance" theory, AI-related companies will become increasingly profitable while unemployment surges. In order to stave off a revolution from the unemployed and desperately poor peasants, the lucrative companies would pay a meaningful tax, which would be distributed as UBS and/or UBI.

2025-10-11 16:46:49 CEST

The US has long weaponized the US dollar against its adversaries (including China).
China is now starting to weaponize the global manufacturing and supply chain against its adversaries (including the US).
This won’t end well for the US dollar’s multi-decade hegemony and status quo of the West’s geopolitical “elites.”
Consider owning some bitcoin and gold while the debasement of the dollar accelerates over the coming 5-15 years.

2025-09-23 18:16:24 CEST

I generally despise politics and am neither a Republican or Democrat, but somebody needs to lay it out:
A Revolution--likely violent--is coming soon.
Income inequality in the US--and around the world--is reaching catastrophic proportions.
History says that this discrepancy in income and living standards is strongly correlated with Revolutions... usually bloody.
If the Ruling Elite and Billionaire Class don't address this developing situation with practical solutions in the near-term, then (I predict, based on historical precedent) that this will NOT end well for said Elites.
The current monetary and financial system has reached a breaking point and, if it is not proactively fixed, it will eventually be overthrown.
One clear example of the obnoxious and increasingly intolerable inequality is in the CEO-to-Worker compensation ratio (see graph).
https://blossom.primal.net/f42d1085df33b3afdefa11d1e93ff3140e0d6bae002cbe8051c2aef049ee5d6c.png
Hope in the future of America is fading... and many lower income Americans are growing desperate.
In light of this and many other large (and widening) discrepancies, here are Five Fixes for the Ruling Elite and Billionaire Class to strongly consider (and quickly implement):
1. C-suite executives at all public and private US companies should immediately institute policies to lower their compensation packages and/or raise their Workers' compensation packages, in order to reach a CEO-to-Worker ratio of 30-to-1, or less.
2. Though long considered "untouchable," Social Security needs to be intelligently adjusted. I know many wealthy American seniors who neither need nor even want to receive Social Security payments, and would actually be relieved if their payments went instead to their fellow Americans who are suffering financially. -- SOLUTION: Immediately phase-out Social Security payments to senior Americans in the highest income deciles and transfer these same payments to younger Americans in the lowest income deciles.
3. A progressive (income-based) student debt jubilee. -- While I believe strongly in general debt repayment obligations, many recent college graduates are straddled with large levels of debt while available jobs are vanishing. Negative income and a negative net worth cannot be survived for long, as even basic food and shelter needs become out of reach. This becomes an impossible situation to navigate... eventually leading to desperate (likely violent) actions. -- Such hopelessness and aggression are already manifest in high and rising rates of drug and alcohol usage, riots, suicide, and homicide.
4. Disincentivize ownership of multiple homes. -- Many younger Americans are simply priced out of home ownership, while many older Americans own two or more homes. This discrepancy is increasingly insufferable to younger Americans. -- SOLUTION: Americans can easily be disincentivized to own more than one home through tax policy. Doing so would cause many older Americans to try to sell their additional homes, increasing market supply, and decreasing prices to a reasonable level.
5. Increase the progressive Death Tax for the ultra-wealthy. -- Allow entrepreneurial Billionaires and (soon) Trillionaires to enjoy the fruits of their labors while they are alive, but then let the living standards of all Americans be raised upon their passing. Multi-generational family dynasties are over-rated and generally unproductive. -- SOLUTION: Directly transfer progressive Death Tax proceeds to lower income Americans. Make these transfer payments open-source, so everyone can watch the benefits of the inventive and industrious citizens accrue to all Americans.
--------
Finally, I believe that the coming Age of AI and Robotics will only accelerate the above-mentioned trends and accentuate the need for shrewd and well-timed solutions.
It is time for the Ruling Elite and Billionaire Class to act while they still can, or (as history shows) the Worker Class will rise up and do the dirty work for them.

2025-09-03 21:31:23 CEST

- reply

One year ago I did a thing... I deleted my final centralized social media account (Twitter/X).
Today, I have no regrets.
One year from today, I may be off of social media completely.
#nostr
#nevent1q…vmc8

2025-08-22 16:35:41 CEST

- reply

Probably not.

2025-08-22 16:14:47 CEST

Let the (actual) bull market commence.
🐂

2025-08-01 21:15:08 CEST

What I'm watching (explained in detail)... 👀
1. Reverse head-and-shoulders
- Left shoulder
- Head
- Right shoulder
2. Breakout
3. Re-test
4. Next move (rip higher)?
#bitcoin
Just my guess. It won't be perfect. You do you.
https://blossom.primal.net/b96bb32b0fb88cb36573977a1fd1b6aeb756b03c70b1c7df6816c95180baf0e3.png

2025-07-31 23:01:46 CEST

Based on a (conservative) full year diluted earnings projection of $80/share, #MSTR (share price ~$400/share) is currently trading at a P/E of approximately 5.
lol
Eat your heart out, value investors.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4475909-strategy-q2-earnings-blow-past-consensus-aided-by-bitcoin-rally-delivers-strong-guide

2025-07-30 21:11:54 CEST

Another gripping FOMC press conference today featuring Fed Chair: Jerome "Wet Blanket" Powell
https://blossom.primal.net/5a6273b68764b7a1670babeb6832a5a4d72fb7a6992791ab5bb95b11739de5ef.png

2025-07-28 18:51:02 CEST

Three Monetary Truths:
Over time...
1. The US dollar (and other government fiat currencies) are DEPRECIATING stores of value.
2. Gold is a STABLE store of value.
3. Bitcoin is an APPRECIATING store of value.

2025-07-25 14:25:27 CEST

Relentless Purchasing Power Progression.
#Bitcoin #PowerLaw
https://blossom.primal.net/30c24c0a58abfdc42c38af06f280808d1f5c0a6118b14408f2869e9f4e738cca.png

2025-07-23 00:36:26 CEST

Trying to quit social media altogether, but can't... cuz #nostr and... bored.
AMA

2025-07-22 22:47:43 CEST

Hands down, peaches are the world’s best fruit.
I will die on this hill.

2025-07-18 17:32:05 CEST

Happy Paper Bitcoin Summer.
https://blossom.primal.net/c8fb5212eecf3c3f604936d4e6924b37baed584499fdd4a3265761e02716bcb1.png

2025-07-18 14:39:57 CEST

My Three Burners Theory of #bitcoin bull market price action.
Burner #1: Liquidity
Current setting: Medium
Burner #2: Economy
Current setting: Low (but starting to rise? ... watch ISM data)
Burner #3: Leverage
Current setting: Low
OPINION:
We won't see an exponential move (ie, a "blow-off top") until all three burners are on High.
https://blossom.primal.net/b5c4b14b52d5fbd3eb7359cece8134689da96c1632ce2318dacfcca6ad2c0124.png

2025-07-18 03:57:05 CEST

If you showed 100 Americans a picture of a steak vs a picture of a seed oil-laden protein bar, I’m guessing that at least 80% would choose the protein bar as the healthy option.
Similarly, fried eggs vs a granola bar.
Pseudo-nutrition marketing is extremely powerful and misleading.
We’ve been seriously duped… much to our own detriment.
Discuss.

2025-07-17 16:33:12 CEST

Ditch your (fiat) doctor?
"Modern diet" often means modern disease.
Funny how focusing on what humans ate for millennia (meat!) often reverses the damage done by new-fangled, chemical-laden, fiat "foods."
Your gut knows. Your brain knows. Listen to them.
#CarnivoreLife #ProcessedFoodIsntFood #OptimalHealth

2025-07-17 14:41:35 CEST

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Actual: 15.9
Forecast: -1
Prior: -4
Philly Fed New Orders
Actual: 18.4
Prior: 2.3
--------
FYI
Philly Fed metrics front-run ISM Manufacturing, which is--at long last--beginning to heat up in 2H 2025... after nearly three years of contraction.
This is Burner #2 beneath the bitcoin price cauldron. When it finally starts to heat up, so too will the fiat price of bitcoin.
(Burner #1 is Global Liquidity. Burner #3 is Leverage.)

2025-07-17 13:48:19 CEST

If I'm not mistaken (and I often am), we are entering the "crypto season" portion of the bull market.
Remember, proof of stake (PoS) crypto has nothing relevant to do with proof of work (PoW) Bitcoin, and has everything to do with the existing fiat system, from whence it came.
Fiat-brains and crypto bros are one and the same.
Both think that their system and products have intrinsic value and, correspondingly, both will use their waning purchasing power to drive up segments of their fiat/PoS crypto assets.
Let them.
They are speculating and gambling in a dying casino while we are building a better world for posterity.
Some of these assets will even outperforming bitcoin for a season.
That's okay.
Be content with your situation and keep helping those around you, who are still blinded and influenced by the fiat-brains.
Don't get in arguments or waste your time yelling at crypto bros.
Take responsibility and do the work. This is what adults do while the children play and goof off.
As @nprofile…qy52 often says, "Stay humble and stack sats."
Relax. Stay focused. Build.
Bitcoin is better money for a better world.
Onward and upward.
GM.

2025-07-17 00:47:56 CEST

Raise your hand if you are a Bitcoin influencer and have not YET received a call to run a multi-billion dollar Bitcoin Treasury Company.
This will help Wall Street figure out who’s left to choose from.

2025-07-15 22:50:19 CEST

Nauseating levels of Saylor-imitating Bitcoin treasury companies at this point.
They may do well in the bull market… but there will be extreme wreckage during the subsequent bear market.
Regular folks should simply stack sats and chill while the chaos unfolds. 🍿

2025-07-14 15:29:17 CEST

Don't feed the system that feeds off of you.

2025-07-09 21:18:01 CEST

Magical lines and circles. 👀
You do you.
https://blossom.primal.net/e48b9b2b94cb4f8d503879d84dd52a45e40fb9cd1fda8237beb223965798ee88.png

2025-07-01 21:43:57 CEST

Bureaucrats, Academics, Managers, and Administrators don't build wonderful new societies and cultures...
They oversee, hasten, and profit from their decline.

2025-07-01 14:54:34 CEST

Normies always want to hear my bitcoin price prediction.
So here it is...
IN 2035, I PREDICT THAT A GOOD QUALITY NEW YORK STRIP STEAK WILL COST ABOUT 2500 SATS.
--------
You're welcome.
Onward and upward.

2025-06-30 17:27:48 CEST

The biggest risk I see over the coming 6-12 months--among both normies and many Bitcoiners--is a general unpreparedness for potential extreme upside bitcoin price volatility in fiat terms.
Consider yourself warned.

2025-06-28 20:40:34 CEST

ELIMINATE ALL CAPITAL GAINS TAXES WHEN USING BITCOIN TO PURCHASE ANY AMOUNT OF GOODS AND SERVICES.
THIS SHOULD BE PRIORITY #1, SINCE BITCOIN IS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY MONEY.

2025-05-31 01:03:40 CEST

You can just keep your thoughts to yourself and not post things.

2025-05-28 23:34:21 CEST

How’s the 2025 Las Vegas Crypto Bros and Pandering Politicians Conference going?

2025-05-13 17:52:35 CEST

CONFESSION:
Today I came to the humorous, but accurate, realization that the only reason I spend any time on social media is that my IRL friends have little to no interest in investing, macroeconomics, and even Bitcoin.
Related, the urge to unplug and permanently touch grass is incessant for me now that I am not trying to grow my business and brand.

2025-03-16 14:22:47 CET

GM #nostr family. ☕️
Perspective:
- God is God.
Therefore:
- Bitcoin is not God.
- Government is not God.
- AI is not God.
- You are not God.
Respond accordingly.

2025-03-10 00:23:38 CET

I hereby declare March 10-16 to be Bounce Week.

2025-02-13 19:13:39 CET

So, it looks like I need to have at least 50 subscribers to my YouTube channel before they will allow me to do live streams.
Please help a brother out and subscribe to my new channel, so I can start sharing my THINKING OUT LOUD infotainment show with the world!
Here's the link:
https://www.youtube.com/@DrJeffRoss

2025-01-25 00:31:41 CET

- reply

He gives me the heebie jeebies.
Similar to SBF and Elizabeth Holmes.

2025-01-24 23:57:24 CET

This is actually a big deal. 👀
#note1uxd…g8cl

2025-01-23 20:37:52 CET

What’s stopping you from getting on a #Bitcoin standard today?

2025-01-23 16:03:32 CET

- reply

Accurate.

2025-01-22 18:02:48 CET

- reply

UPDATE:
Trump administration, Day 3
I'm not asking for much from the incoming #Trump administration other than:
- #FreeRoss ✅
- Abolish the IRS ❌
- Abolish the Federal Reserve ❌
- Abolish taxes on using #bitcoin to purchase goods and services ❌
#nevent1q…hmae

2025-01-15 21:53:14 CET

The dollar "wrecking ball."
lol... against other fiat currencies, sure.
The $DXY is up about 12% over the past five years relative to basket of other major currencies.
However, in real (#bitcoin) terms, the dollar has lost -91% of its value over the same time period.
LESSON:
Choose your financial denominator wisely... or you may be chronically mislead (and debased).
https://m.primal.net/NiNy.png

2025-01-15 21:46:37 CET

Are you worried about the ever-rising cost of stuff?
Does life get more expensive faster than you can even make money?
Check it out... 👀
OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS
- The price of a dozen eggs is down -77% in real (#bitcoin) terms.
- The price of a pound of ground beef is down -87% in real (#bitcoin) terms.
LESSON:
Start pricing your life--and saving--in sats (not in dollars) and you will begin doing well.
https://m.primal.net/NiNR.png

2025-01-14 18:11:36 CET

Unpopular opinion:
The evolution of #Bitcoin conferences...
Early days: Signal >> Hype
Today: Hype >> Signal

2025-01-11 15:56:49 CET

Pro tip:
Bull markets are for paying off debt, not accumulating it.
Accumulating debt during a bull market often leads to financial ruin.

2025-01-09 15:18:56 CET

GM #nostr family.
I am writing my private quarterly memo for my hedge fund clients today.
Notable 2024 performances:
4. S&P 500 total return (including dividends): +25.02%
3. #Gold: +27.2%
2. #Bitcoin: +121.0%
1. Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund (unaudited): +194.8%
Here's to a solid 2025 for Bitcoiners and freedom lovers across the board!
** (Not a solicitation to invest. The fund is currently closed to new investors, who must be Qualified Clients.) **

2025-01-03 23:23:05 CET

The mining of Wall Street continues…
#note1rvw…4fc5

2025-01-03 21:22:40 CET

I'm not asking for much from the incoming #Trump administration other than:
- #FreeRoss
- Abolish the IRS
- Abolish the Federal Reserve
- Abolish taxes on using #bitcoin to purchase goods and services