toxicbitcoiner
Toxic Bitcoiner

Bitcoin zealot 🐝 Who’s going to buy the bonds? #Payjoin #GIABO

Public Key

npub1u87g378r0puytp7zxdl5awg2gmqvqc3vgtnh6a0vfgm4y8es7c3qam93f7

NIP-05 Address

[email protected]

Profile Code

nprofile1qqswrlyglr3hs7z9slprxl6why9ydsxqvgky9emawhky5d6jruc0vgspzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgnckkg2

Publishing to

relay.primal.net

Author Public Key

npub1u87g378r0puytp7zxdl5awg2gmqvqc3vgtnh6a0vfgm4y8es7c3qam93f7

Show more details

Last Notes

2026-02-23 20:21:10 CET

- reply

Also, at least in the US, the government heavily backstops the (credit) risk on MBS, which increases prices. #nevent1q…uf4s

2026-02-23 16:03:51 CET

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/a5374f59edf7547effa91392403c15a3ce10ca716a61f8ef3166ffa35eca6f61.jpg

2026-02-23 15:04:32 CET

https://image.nostr.build/3aad1782e41a0a96bd37e7fee1e593ede01b8d3ee04e36ac3792734289aed209.jpg
#nevent1q…9qua

2026-02-23 14:28:47 CET

- reply

Game theory to add to your list of resources, if you haven’t seen it already. https://melvin.me/public/articles/bip110.html
If there’s an equivalent counter site, I’d love to see it. The biggest question I see not covered here is: what happens if only say 20-40% of hash signals? The site assumes they’ll get the 55%+.

2026-02-22 23:45:59 CET

- reply

A larger UTXO set increases hardware requirements for nodes, which decreases node decentralization. Pruned nodes don’t fix this.

2026-02-22 23:19:46 CET

- reply

How does price going up stop an actor with a money printer from intentionally increasing the UTXO set with valid transactions?

2026-02-22 23:00:30 CET

How do fees defend against this?
#nevent1q…kngx

2026-02-22 22:36:28 CET

- reply

How does price going up stop an attack on the UTXO set?

2026-02-22 21:45:25 CET

- reply

How does price going up stop a spam attack on the UTXO set?

2026-02-22 18:27:38 CET

- reply

By JPEGs did you just mean in opreturn only? Because aren’t inscriptions considered JPEGs too?

2026-02-22 18:16:14 CET

- reply

Then could a compromise where 110 drops the changes to opreturn, but leaves everything else be the best of both worlds?

2026-02-22 18:10:03 CET

- reply

You assume there will be JPEGs taking up blocks, why? What if there aren’t JPEGs taking up blocks?

2026-02-22 18:09:12 CET

- reply

What if they have a money printer?

2026-02-22 18:07:09 CET

- reply

“The consequence now is we have a modest amount of chain *AND UTXO set* growth.” Why did you leave that out?

2026-02-22 17:53:55 CET

- reply

How do JPEGs guard against a UTXO set spam attack?

2026-02-22 17:51:12 CET

- reply

The UXTO set from the spam is an issue. Which you said in another comment, but not this one?

2026-02-22 17:45:14 CET

- reply

Respect

2026-02-22 17:23:49 CET

- reply

I know that’s the claim and I believe it. But in practice is it being used that much? Does that current usage or hypothetical future usage justify the unintended negative consequences that we’re dealing with now?

2026-02-22 15:27:20 CET

Was Segwit a hostile fork because it didn’t have overwhelming consensus?
#nevent1q…vfxj

2026-02-22 15:18:34 CET

- reply

That sounds right. This has the game theory, although it’s biased towards pro BIP110 and has a couple things missing that I have questions about. https://melvin.me/public/articles/bip110.html

2026-02-22 14:36:59 CET

I’m not even saying that this alone provides a correct answer. I’m saying that this is a missing puzzle piece in the conversation. Some humility, contrition, and meditation on this will go a long way for you and possibly your supporters.
#nevent1q…vfxj

2026-02-22 14:24:42 CET

In hindsight, wasn’t Taproot a hostile fork?
1. Over 5 years later, hardly anyone uses it, except spammers. No major product market fit yet.
2. It was a “nice to have”, wasn’t a response to a threat (debatably like segwit was).
3. It ratcheted up the spam problem, which creates another problem now with another possible fork.
If you supported Taproot, then what did you get wrong, such that you supported a hostile fork? Do you apologize?
Before you get to anything else, it thinks it’s important that you ask yourself those two questions, then reflect on the answers.

2026-02-22 14:04:17 CET

Remember when BIP 148 caused a chain split because it didn’t have consensus months before the deadline?

2026-02-22 02:55:55 CET

- reply

I watched it. There wasn’t an explanation. Just a claim.

2026-02-22 02:06:39 CET

Did BIP148 give control to Core and Blockstream?
#nevent1q…0d6s

2026-02-21 23:04:29 CET

- reply

I’m not asking sarcastically. I want to know. I want as much information as possible.

2026-02-21 22:48:53 CET

How exactly does BIP110 give Luke and Mechanic control?

2026-02-21 18:47:52 CET

- reply

“Hate” implies something, no? That’s you’d *prefer* there was no segwit or taproot?

2026-02-21 18:39:03 CET

- reply

So segwit and taproot were mistakes? What now?

2026-02-21 18:33:13 CET

- reply

Segwit and its activation method is hailed as a victory by everyone except Bcashers, no?

2026-02-21 18:32:05 CET

- reply

And taproot?

2026-02-21 18:06:41 CET

Segwit was a small group of people changing Bitcoin

2026-02-21 18:04:43 CET

https://image.nostr.build/b93c579550aa428f6ae9422d645ace5a945d43b045cc10e1106bda35ebd281c8.gif
#nevent1q…s76m

2026-02-21 17:57:26 CET

- reply

Many such cases

2026-02-21 17:49:02 CET

- reply

Check what my investors want me to say today

2026-02-21 17:35:08 CET

Did BIP148 have overwhelming consensus or was it just a minority of nodes?

2026-02-21 16:33:55 CET

- reply

#nevent1q…v7vl Exactl

2026-02-21 16:31:42 CET

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/d4e1f2d11be31a9b838e12fa745b8cfea9826e4765f5026452a73b83a06b2637.jpg

2026-02-21 16:22:52 CET

Was a lynch mob behind BIP 148?

2026-02-21 15:26:07 CET

- reply

So close to perfect. “…such as Bitcoin.” or “…such as Bitcoin gold or silver.”

2026-02-21 15:22:10 CET

Where are the apologies from influencers who supported taproot? If you want more credibility, you might want to reflect on that time and lead with an apology before you start talking.

2026-02-21 03:22:41 CET

Who has receipts on the biggest supporters of taproot activation?

2026-02-21 01:26:04 CET

- reply

Hmm I wonder if any major event happened during that time
https://image.nostr.build/afca1a72ac1b7654594631b27ef31302c623eebdeabaa55f163dec34e48ed890.jpg

2026-02-21 01:04:46 CET

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/3e7352ca9cbf55db8dc4d3a74c9e3c46b973d5edfd875581a60e122fc54f5a71.jpg

2026-02-20 23:50:04 CET

https://image.nostr.build/1431a9c24fc5162c6113b8e36acc4ada1a0064f94a2c160a24e08fbcb0fb6a87.jpg

2026-02-20 23:42:18 CET

I GUESS THERE IS NONE. TIGHT
https://image.nostr.build/5c8bdabc05af3a563d2e0cedb971b6c0a5231b2ba59f7f354ec9a74bcf269835.gif
#nevent1q…zdcx

2026-02-20 21:53:57 CET

- reply

They have a money printer

2026-02-20 21:52:04 CET

What’s the defense against a nation state actor spamming the UTXO set?

2026-02-20 19:15:08 CET

- reply

Boo this man
https://image.nostr.build/d215c5df35b31ab72f63db9f032e92a63f482c9e18d7bc92b1967dbabf20ad73.gif

2026-02-20 19:05:18 CET

- reply

58k

2026-02-20 18:55:07 CET

- reply

I don’t disagree with any of that. It’s just not what my hypothesis is: that government intervention into the housing market is extreme and unappreciated. People seem to not be aware of this at all. And yea equity valuations are farcical.

2026-02-20 17:35:43 CET

- reply

Only 29% of the market is “free”. Then again, those originating banks/credit unions who hold those hold loans have FDIC/NCUA insurance and other government-sponsored cartel benefits.

2026-02-20 16:03:40 CET

- reply

The subtext of my post is that I’m generally more inclined to trust a Bitcoiner on topic X than I am to trust a noncoiner topic Y expert on topic X.

2026-02-20 15:39:09 CET

Bitcoin is the best litmus test for general intelligence. No other area of expertise is even close.

2026-02-20 15:34:35 CET

- reply

Ok so he’s being a cunt. Sunk Cost fallacy in full view. He thinks he’s too smart to not get it…so there must be something wrong with Bitcoin, not him. Pathetic concern troll.

2026-02-20 15:01:58 CET

https://image.nostr.build/bc13753c95e336f3bbd594c41ad5aa3c5c511677443f896d1c8829c997fe15d6.jpg

2026-02-20 14:57:26 CET

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/fd1a44444f8edbc8a7a4532d66e5223afd59375c58f5cd1851da1e31eacaccc0.jpg

2026-02-20 14:02:13 CET

I wonder how many people know that the *credit risk* for the $2T of mortgage backed securities owned by the Federal Reserve is backstopped by Fannie, Freddie, and Ginnie - AKA the taxpayers.
#nevent1q…g0yp

2026-02-20 13:51:27 CET

- reply

Fake and gay indeed. Part of the Conclusion:
“This architecture delivers powerful short-term stability. Mortgage rates remain lower than they otherwise would be. Investors treat agency MBS as near-sovereign assets. During downturns, scheduled principal and interest payments continue flowing to investors even when borrowers default, reducing forced selling and systemic panic.
But stability is achieved through structural leverage.
Mortgage lending creates bank deposits — expanding the money supply at origination. Federal guarantees reduce funding costs and suppress risk premiums, encouraging greater credit expansion than a fully private market would likely sustain. Over time, this contributes to higher home prices, higher household leverage, and greater sensitivity to rate cycles.
The system reduces the frequency of collapse while increasing the scale of public exposure. It converts episodic private losses into managed public absorption. That tradeoff may be rational, but it is not neutral. The system does not eliminate risk, it reallocates it through layered public backstops.”

2026-02-20 13:45:15 CET

- reply

Eric’s ties to Thiel looking ever worse. A loser for crashing out on Bitcoin. I still like Bret because he was so right on the vaxx and was severely punished for it. He refuses to let the vaxx crime die and highlights new evil medical interventions. So he still has integrity. He’s susceptible to the propaganda machine just like everyone else and it’s possible Epstein wasn’t that bright, just charisma maxxed. Still very frustrating that Bret doesn’t care about Bitcoin/freedom tech and anarcho capitalism because he’s so close but won’t take the leap.

2026-02-20 02:10:58 CET

“Epstein wasn’t that smart” smells like a psyop. I keep seeing it.
Could be a way for poors to cope with his wealth.
Could also be awfully convenient for some: “Epstein wasn’t that smart; therefore, he couldn’t have run a (child) sex trafficking and blackmail ring.”

2026-02-20 01:03:21 CET

Babe wake up.
The Rothschilds are so back.
#nevent1q…5rhr

2026-02-20 00:45:59 CET

- reply

It looks like those are mean house price and mean personal income. Mean income here is pretty close: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MAPAINUSA646N
Mean house price is here, also close: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=CpFW

2026-02-20 00:12:12 CET

I have to apologize (personally to @npub1ghc…ygat ) for oversimplifying how mortgage backed security (MBS) “ownership” works. In light of the realization that I oversimplified, I decided to do a deep dive and write a research paper on the US mortgage market and how the US government intervenes in it.
TLDR: My main point still stands: government intervention in the ~$13.1T US single family mortgage market is extreme and worth taking note of. ~70.61% ($9.3T) of the mortgage market carries a government-linked, credit-risk guarantee, AKA taxpayers. The Federal Reserve also owns roughly ~15% (~$2T) of the market, whose credit risk is backed by taxpayers (and included in the ~70.61% ($9.3T)).
I probably won’t post the whole research paper anywhere, but this high level summary below should give some understanding of how the market works. Questions and corrections welcome.
After mortgages are originated, there are two types of entities: owners and guarantors. In the approximately ~$13.1 trillion U.S. single family mortgage market, the typical owner of a mortgage-backed security earns the interest payments and bears interest-rate risk, prepayment/extension risk, and liquidity risk — meaning the asset’s value fluctuates as rates move or borrowers refinance. (Private label MBS and unsecuritized whole loans, ~29% of mortgages (~$3.87T), bear those three risks PLUS credit risk. AKA a free market)
The guarantor, by contrast, bears the credit risk — the risk that borrowers default and liquidation does not fully repay principal. ~70.61% ($9.3T) of the mortgage market carries a government-linked, credit-risk guarantee: roughly 50% via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (implicit) and about 21% via Ginnie Mae (explicit).
The Federal Reserve also owns roughly ~15% ($2T) of the total market. While the Fed holds the interest-rate, prepayment/extension, and liquidity risks on those securities, it does not bear the borrower credit risk. That credit risk is insured by the issuing agencies — either Ginnie Mae (explicit full faith and credit of the U.S. Treasury) or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (implicit Treasury backstop through conservatorship).
In simple terms, owners absorb market volatility, while the guarantors absorb borrower default losses. 29% remains outside federal credit protection through private-label securities and bank-held whole loans.

2026-02-19 18:17:05 CET

I tried listening to Dalio’s latest piece and only lasted 15 minutes. It was too cringe. Every few sentences there was something so banal that he tried to make profound. Thinkboi word salad. Giving himself layups.
I found myself constantly saying “that’s a reach.” “Says who?” “Press X to doubt.”
I’ve long said that Ray’s cognition isn’t what it used to be and he needs to retire. The fact that he *still* doesn’t get Bitcoin, even though Ray’s earlier work helped a lot us see Bitcoin 🙋‍♂️, is further proof that he needs to quit the game.
#nevent1q…6n6h

2026-02-19 17:56:55 CET

- reply

Dalio is also retarded. Needs to retire.

2026-02-18 20:42:28 CET

Super based https://fountain.fm/episode/bGvZ7hHPL871q7PVqc89

2026-02-18 18:43:09 CET

- reply

NGU isn’t what it used to be and right now it’s dead in the water as a selling point for new adoption. You could’ve DCA’d into more traditional things in recent years and also done very well relatively. I’m done with every other leading selling point except “Bitcoin destroys governments.”

2026-02-18 17:34:20 CET

- reply

Correct

2026-02-18 17:20:46 CET

- reply

Yea that’s true too. Except my initial point: nobody gives a shit about Bitcoin as a SoV, inflation hedge, debasement trade, etc (whatever you want to call it) either because NGU has been a failure in recent years.
I’m just commenting on where the current narrative is for new adoption on all fronts: in the gutter.

2026-02-18 17:00:09 CET

- reply

Goliath can learn too. The last big print woke up too many to the problem. Goliath has to be aware of that. If I were them, I’d slow and steady print to avoid spooking the masses, while still bleeding them.

2026-02-18 16:48:58 CET

NGU as part of our thesis is in the absolute gutter right now.
Nobody gives a shit about freedom money. If they do, they’re clearly buying gold and silver instead.
Payments? “My card works flawlessly every time, why would I ever switch?” Stablecoins are being shoved down everyone’s throats.
Nobody gives a shit or has time to care about the properties of money and credit. “Ludwig von who? Menger? Sounds fake and gay. I’m yoloing into more Palantir and Elon stonks because they get unlimited military funding now.”
They won’t care until they have to, until rule of law starts breaking down in the west, US states secede, assets start getting seized in size, and inflation becomes too farcical to even pretend to ignore.
I’m not selling for any fake fiat assets. Maybe in a few decades when the demonetization is over and equities holders are suicidal with PE’s in the low single digits. For now, hodling Bitcoin isn’t and doesn’t have to be a “trade” - no, hodling is a moral imperative to starve the State, which will ultimately usher in a more humane and fair world than governments have made before.

2026-02-18 15:18:27 CET

- reply

#nevent1q…xr08

2026-02-18 14:38:13 CET

A lot of this for the next year or whatever of bear crab. Apparently the people are still retarded.
https://image.nostr.build/df9e1b84bba50312d9195df0a9f70653fd0e8ff56708e62518048c515f773be0.jpg

2026-02-18 02:45:46 CET

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/217598774931cebb8267a8fb5e7e831b9027f0f1590dd559b69d879b0c510b51.jpg

2026-02-18 02:19:35 CET

- reply

Only 6 episodes in the season. Season 2 is confirmed.

2026-02-17 20:49:52 CET

- reply

Cc @npub15jc…44hx

2026-02-17 20:45:51 CET

Why is this cut off? What kind of lightning wallets work with Predyx? #asknostr
https://beta.predyx.com/faq
https://image.nostr.build/fdf2242b8d28b09898cf1216b1182da293d8efd3e552e95933bcccab509015cb.jpg

2026-02-17 20:30:34 CET

Checkmate, Bastiat
https://image.nostr.build/d3d53c7ee1c9b4792bd4e7ec3d0d7aa0849b1febbbc77592988b9b9c5bd55050.jpg
#nevent1q…yff5

2026-02-17 19:23:40 CET

- reply

Hmm I wonder if there was any significant event that happened in 2001 👀

2026-02-17 17:55:01 CET

- reply

Yes, that is another point. Many of the (sometimes subtle) things we rely on government for now, will have to be accounted for by insurance. You’re already paying for them indirectly (taxes) right now, but without government, the costs will be lower because of competition and decentralized (rather than top down) economic calculation.

2026-02-17 17:43:30 CET

- reply

I used to think this, until I realized that insurance has to be a critical part of an AnCap society and it only seems fiat because of the currently extreme government involvement in the insurance market.
Without government, premiums would be much lower once government intervention is removed from say, healthcare and housing. Insurance costs are artificially high because of: burdensome regulations (limited competition, paperwork, middlemen), distorted asset prices (houses, mortgage market, money printing), direct government subsidy and corruption (Medicare, Medicaid), artificial restriction of healthcare providers (medical schools), etc.
Direct payment and V4V would definitely grow as a % share of the activity, relative to insurance, because again, all costs would be lower without government, making those models more attractive to some people.

2026-02-17 17:19:46 CET

- reply

Where the white women at?

2026-02-17 15:49:38 CET

- reply

Make dirigibles great again

2026-02-17 15:30:03 CET

- reply

A homosexual sex addict has a few screws loose. Shocker.

2026-02-17 15:12:00 CET

“Prominent”
“System”
https://image.nostr.build/b6d975e4b22c1ba41716bd3585590b9f9c2b06db5d5486e84437ea596f8b873f.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/24f151c243fea0827c43a377c1c1e50c46ca8251797d12d93cc7d329c1598368.jpg

2026-02-17 14:24:06 CET

No other CEO could get away with this. How unabashedly he says it. How brazen. His ego keeps growing and IMO I think it’s because Palantir is being used to accumulate blackmail on everyone. Palantir is becoming its own kind of government - surveillance+blackmail+weapons.
#nevent1q…ethq

2026-02-17 13:40:29 CET

- reply

The ego on these people holy crap. Even if you disregard the technicals, comments with attitude like this make the choice easier every day.

2026-02-16 17:44:56 CET

- reply

Hey I was asking a good faith question. Trying to learn. Thanks for the info.

2026-02-16 16:57:58 CET

- reply

Cc @npub1wl6…caw8

2026-02-16 16:53:29 CET

- reply

What if anything does BIP110 do about Runes? If nothing, why not? Is that a problem?

2026-02-16 16:52:33 CET

Flat Earth Nostr
https://image.nostr.build/175e3eca13e56a6a9035e30c919a8cdfe966f1ac246a4c0b4ecdeba518802ae6.jpg
#nevent1q…h07m

2026-02-16 16:14:50 CET

- reply

A lot of Nostr will be triggered by this

2026-02-16 15:38:14 CET

- reply

#nevent1q…k4pv Evil

2026-02-16 15:23:51 CET

- reply

https://image.nostr.build/26da0e34655ef87de893aa3d07027f8e76aa5cd0512d0b4595523e616065324e.jpg

2026-02-16 14:12:48 CET

https://image.nostr.build/4c3efd2a90b5f5324afb7904eca57ae9be4c90346231807652501050e98c77cb.jpg

2026-02-13 20:58:16 CET

- reply

*Commercial* real estate

2026-02-12 15:14:18 CET

The best thing I learned from Nik Bhatia.
- Bond markets are massive.
- Interest rate uncertainty forces more hedging from bond investors.
- That hedging soaks up tremendous amounts of liquidity.

2026-02-05 22:03:22 CET

Sell Bitcoin for what exactly?
Goytokens?
Goyshares?
Goyrocks?