posting without conscience things in which most people are not interested | www.chrisliss.com
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2026-01-22T19:08:03+01:00 Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Went for a run Monday, was windy and chilly. Was stiff and sore from two Padel tournaments on Saturday. Two miles slow, maybe 11 minute pace. Seems like a small thing with all the other things going on in my life, but it's not. Showing up to the track IS what's going on in my life. That slow uncomfortable run is reality itself. The encounter with it is the point. It's not a matter of discipline or self-improvement or getting in shape. Just a basic connection that pervades everything. There is no other life but the slow progression into the wind on the track surrounded by sparse trees and ugly buildings. Going again today. Will stretch for five minutes against a tree afterwards as I always do. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss 14-YO overslept her alarm this morning (has a basketball game), luckily I realized and woke her up, and now she’s pissed at me for waking her up! npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss cool, will check it out, thanks npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Would like to hear it npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Idea to bookmark for later: real numbers are incompressible like reality itself. Pi and e are compressible reals, ambassadors from reality to the land of reason. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Never understand what that dude is getting at either or what he's even talking about. Ray Dailio I can understand what he's talking about, but never what his point is. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss love a good Caesar, wife makes one with a lot of garlic npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss I was aware of different levels of infinity, say the higher level of the reals and the higher level still of the sets that can be made with reals. But in my Claude chat I got some insight as to WHY real numbers can’t map with the naturals the way rationals do, and it got pretty deep. The real numbers we use like pi and e are the exceptions in that you can generate them with relatively compressed information, kind of like rationals. But reals are uncompressible like reality itself. In fact the rationals are literally rational — figments of the reasoning mind, only a map, so to speak, whereas reals are the territory itself. When you think about it, there is no circle in nature, no 3, no cutting something in half. They are all abstractions. But reals are reality in its actual detail. Rationals are finitely describable, reals are not except for the few exceptions like pi and e. Otherwise you cannot describe a real with a finite amount of information. Just like you can’t describe or map reality faithfully with a finite map. Which leads to Godel and Wittgenstein. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss same, but I do think the Cantor stuff is cool where you can't match different levels of infinity one to one. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss ha -- of course I've seen that! Where he does the real comparison on the FGH scale, and you realize TREE(3) grows unfathomably fast npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Lots of people get confused by labels. When evaluating NFL players, people will say, but so and so was a first-round pick when he was taken 28th, and so-and-so is a second-round pick when he was drafted 35th. There's a much bigger difference between pick 6 and pick 28 than pick 28 and pick 35. The "rounds" are just arbitrary cut-off points. Similarly people will say "Trump promised no wars" and now he's attacked Iran. "War" is like first-round pick. You can define what's happening in Iran as a "war" and sick burn all the peace promises if you like, but the difference between this "war" and a war where we spend trillions, kill millions and destabilize an entire region is a lot different than kidnapping Maduro or taking out Khameni. If this does devolve into Iraq 2.0 or worse, that'a another matter, but if it's more like Venezuela, then it's not really contradicting the platform on which he was elected. Think a lot of people are conflating the two for clicks and outrage, but it's pretty obviously stretching one label to cover two very different scenarios. This is not an opinion on whether taking out Khameni (or kidnapping Maduro) was "good," legal or desirable -- we will only know that over the medium and long haul. Only that this conflation of two very different things is lowest-common-denominator posting. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss if he were compromised such that he'd destroy his presidency and imperil his future by launching a war that's not even popular with his base he would've sat 2024 out. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Odd how the price has spiked with Jane Street sidelined. Think it was Max Keiser who said JPM had a short on MSTR so big it would collapse them if the price mooned again. Occurred to me these large connected entities might be working together -- JPM shorts MSTR, scrambles to build competing products (or just hopes to delay/destroy it), knows Jane Street is good for the price manipulation of the underlying, both have inside info re overleveraged players, where the liquidation points are. We'll see, just seems like a hell of a coincidence of timing. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Normally I'd out this in a highlighter format and post it natively, but too many screenshots, so I'm linking to the Substack. Plus, probably the only one who will get it is @nprofile…xr40 https://www.chrisliss.com/p/why-we-will-never-have-agi npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Saw an interview with Kobe Bryant. Someone asked him if he loves winning or hates losing more. Kobe replied neither, when he's on the court he's just trying to figure it out. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss He also rented a car two days after he was suicided apparently. And yes, it's the Three-Body Problem that had that exact scenario only via an alien race. Good science fiction is indistinguishable from prophecy. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Excerpt from latest podcast: https://v.nostr.build/lybQO6w2A9FgZaz4.mp4 Full podcast: https://rumble.com/v75z6zm-what-could-it-possibly-be.html npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss We can consider all that, but first, I want EVERY elected official and those they appoint to register ALL their assets, show us all their emails, texts and browser history, log all their in-person meetings, post their phone number, email addresses and home addresses. They are *public* servants after all and should lead by example. Only when this has been done under penalty of law, should they get around to debating what *private* citizens might disclose. So long as they do ANYTHING in secret, have any of their actions, work or communications classified, they are in no position to make privacy policy for everyone else. #nevent1q…fr9m npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss no, she said it was pretty bad npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Been onboarding people to nostr via my podcast. I don't sell them on the social media aspect or the decentralization or the censorship resistance. I just tell them I want to get paid, and it's absurd to subscribe to one dude's substack when you can pay roughly the same for every song ever recorded in human history. They WANT to pay me, but like most people have zero interest in getting out their credit cards and locking themselves into another subscription. Nostr is the way to do it, 25 or 50 cents a pop, no obligation. Regular listeners would rather pay than not pay. They get something out of being able to pay finally. This shouldn't be underestimated. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss 14-YO daughter went to a basketball tournament three hours away this week, had to sleep on the floor of an under-renovation old classroom, eat garbage food and play in three games while hanging out with people she had just met who had all known each other for years. Got home last night at 9, went to bed at 1 (she's on break), slept in. At 2:30 pm, I remembered she was home (had actually forgotten), went in and woke her up. Anyone's guess how late she would have slept had I not remembered. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss moral of the story: never give the middle school principal serious power #nevent1q…n8wv npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss you must mean a second layer of tinfoil npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Ha — just imagine all you guys are so much more tech savvy than me. And yeah that makes sense re ETH. Zero interest in it in any event. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss was wondering if other people were thinking the same npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss above my paygrade npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss cc @nprofile…8u47 https://blossom.primal.net/c78beec4017d5e77aac37350592fabf135038c9b23956a6fac3a215229d59ad4.png npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss The number of "suicides" and "accidents" that are not suicides is probably unfathomable. Prince, Michael Jackson, Kurt Cobain, Chris Cornell, Anthony Bourdain to name a few, but it's my base case they murdered a lot of our most based and talented artists. If you want to know why the culture is such slop now, consider that the ass-lickers like Rage On Behalf Of The Machine, Bruce Springsteen, Robert DeNiro and Neil Young are at no risk and as such have squandered the brilliance they once had. #nevent1q…wcfp npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Had a dream I was hanging out with Bill Gates and he was a personable and nice guy. Woke up and remembered I had at least one similar dream that I was hanging out with Hillary and got the same impression. Maybe it was a message from my unconscious not to despise people I don't know about whom I have only second-hand information, but my first thought was this might be due to subliminal messaging through some medium they've tapped into to mitigate the public response to learning about their misdeeds. Like they sent out a message that bypasses the conscious mind to make the public less hostile to them when the truth comes out. I don't know. I am paranoid enough to think it's possible. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Nice of the Netherlands to take one for the team, taxing unrealized gains. Serious FAFO. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss That was my question. His actions are definitely driving it, either because he's tone deaf or because he wants that demand before he starts doing something about it. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss But the effect is to get his opponents to expect exactly that and increase the demand for justice. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss No one knows anything for sure, but the idea that we had a bull market that didn't even 2x the prior ATH (and even less when factoring in inflation and even less than that when compared to gold), so now we're in the two-year bear seems off, especially with so many bullish developments in the space. My base case is everyone including me believed in the 4-year cycle, so the selling was front-running it in the fall, causing the price to drop. IOW, if there is a four-cycle, then you can time it. But this drop reinforced the theory of the cycle to many, so even more sold after the peak because they now expect a two-year bear. The selling crushed the price, and newbies panicked and sold at a loss. But even if there were something to the cycle, fore-knowledge of it distorted it and stretched it out. As soon as people realize that, that we're not necessarily in a two-year bear, they're all going to rush back in. Then the macro backdrop and fundamentals will act like a slingshot to ATHs way beyond what all the pussified forecasters (150K by end of 2026!) deem possible. Maybe hit 450 or 500 once the narrative shifts. I could be and have often been wrong. But that's what I think. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss tough habit to shed, it's true npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss I would say the domains in which attention-grabbing noise is rewarded are distortions of capitalism via network effects (like legacy social media). A "capitalist" business with sufficient network effect is a monopoly, and a monopoly is a mini version of the state (no opt out). Which is closer to communism. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss I know this is just a news posting bot, but zero hedge doesn't know shit. None of these idiots saying, "I told you it was a bubble, narratives aren't fundamentals". STFU. Things go up, things go down, in the long run we'll know what was a narrative and what was fundamental. #nevent1q…w3re npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Corporate media is running epistemic bailouts for world views that were rejected by the market (reality). This creates zombie worldviews that are not only irresponsive to market forces (facts), but are outright hostile to them. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss at 12 seconds in npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss have to come clean -- fridge started leaking again tonight #nevent1q…vavn npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss The fiat system's last stand? npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Just donated blood today to shed some iron and it occurred to me how every medical system always needs blood, they're always out there begging for it, and yet at the same time people need blood tests, and in the US at least they cost a fortune. Why not if you need routine bloodwork, you just pop in donate a pint, and they take the first vial full and process the bloodwork? Every blood drive should offer free HBA1C, triglycerides, insulin, HDL, vitamin D, etc. Two birds one needle. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Fast crash > slow bleed IMO. Much more likely to snap back violently. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss So our fridge was leaking, took a photo of the model, uploaded it to AI, told me to unscrew the panel, pull it off and run a hair dryer on the drain until the ice melted and that shit actually worked. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss I'm aware of that, but even on its own machine if it has access to your personal files, emails, accounts, internet access... npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss You guys cover the privacy implications? Wanted to play around with this, but terrified I'd be giving it access to things I'd later regret. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss same muscle, no kidney tests, actually donated blood BEFORE the 5.5, going to donate tomorrow coincidentally to shed some iron npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss What's weird is I was exercising and fasting before too. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Put this behind the paywall on my substack, but figured I'd post for free on nostr: Super Bowl 60 I haven’t felt as strongly about a Super Bowl pick since 2014 when the record-setting Peyton Manning Broncos took on the Legion of Boom/peak Russell Wilson Seahawks. Here’s a video of that prediction from 12 years ago. Most of you know my pick already, but I’m putting a paywall on this as a differentiator for my paying subscribers. Believe it or not, they really exist, and every now and then I need to provide some value that’s not freely available to everyone. Super Bowl LX Patriots +4.5 vs Seahawks (45.5) Before I looked at the line, I expected it to be about seven. The Seahawks had just beaten a Rams team that’s tough on both sides of the ball and blown out a 49ers team that was competitive all year. The Patriots benefited from the easiest regular season schedule in the league, drew the Chargers who were missing their entire offensive line, the Texans in a weather game where CJ Stoud had five turnovers and the Broncos in another weather game without their starting quarterback. They happen to represent the AFC, but even today, the Bills would be favored against them on a neutral field as would the Broncos with a healthy Bo Nix. The other trend I’ve documented at length is that elite defenses tend to overperform expectations in the Super Bowl. One can form theories as to why this is, but the examples are overwhelming from the underdog Seahawks crushing Manning’s Broncos to the 2016 Broncos (underdogs) stifling Cam Newton’s 15-1 Panthers to the 2000 Ravens to the 2002 Bucs (underdogs) to the 2020 Bucs who took apart Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Even the Giants two improbable wins over Tom Brady were largely due to a defense (though not highly ranked on the year) that was loaded with edge rushers and playing out of its mind in the playoffs. For whatever reason, if there’s a Super Bowl, and one team has an elite defense, that team tends to win and cover. But is the Seahawks defense elite? Let’s look at the numbers. Sorted by yards per play, the Seahawks (4.6) were second only to the Broncos (4.5). And they did this despite playing the Rams (6.2 YPP, 1st) twice. The Patriots defense was middle of the pack (5.2 YPP) despite getting the Jets (4.4 YPP, 29th) twice and other bottom-10 offenses like the Browns (32nd), Raiders (31st), Saints (27th), Panthers (26th) and Bucs (24th). And the Texans, who they saw in the playoffs, were 23rd, the Chargers 21st and the Broncos 16th, and that was with Nix, not Jarrett Stidham. Essentially, the Patriots defense is average at best. On offense, the Patriots were second at 6.2 YPP, but the Seahawks were fourth at 5.9 YPP, and given the disparate competition, I’ll call that a wash. But as I mentioned, for whatever reason in the Super Bowl, even one of the all-time offenses, Peyton Manning’s 55-TD pass Broncos, got smoked by an elite defense. Defense really does seem disproportionately to win championships. Seahawks 34 - Patriots 19 npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss Listened to about half of the @nprofile…6dtc pod, and something clicked for me. The Yen blows up, people are worried the Japanese who own $5T in US assets might be forced sellers, so they flee into a neutral reserve asset (gold). If Japan dumps UST and stocks, gold is protection. So gold (and silver) moons, but that trade gets crowded. If only there were another neutral reserve asset available at a discount. npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0 Chris Liss I agree with this, but it's not only that people have gotten used to being the product rather than paying. It's also that a substantial amount of content that people pay for is essentially fraud. Influencers peddling health fixes, money-making strategies, life coaches whose lives are not in order, etc. If you want to get people to part with their money, you promise them something they are desperate for, make it seem plausible, have a good pitch, etc. People will also pay for garbage that feels exclusive, provides them status. Content that is insightful, earnest and articulate is hard to monetize. Maybe a few will succeed, but largely it will go unrewarded. So we're not just up against the habit of people getting content for free in exchange for their attention, we're up against an entire world of fake and superficial. And this predates social media obviously. I don't have an answer for this except to post and create into the void for the sole reason that you have something to say. If someone finds value and wants to tip you, that's great. If you find value and want to tip someone else, also great. If we create an ethos of value for value, even better. But it'll take a major shift before most people pay for freely available content that promises nothing and merely causes them to think. #nevent1q…st4r