Last Notes
Most definitely perimenopausal 😂. Counting the days ✔️🤞
Also, I checked to see how many of the people I knew on Twitter were still around and most of them are gone. Maybe they got tired too 🤷♂️
The ones who are left still say the same things they used to 4 years later … like bots 🤖
"People who just want memes" a.k.a "people who haven't read a single book and have absolutely no curiosity about life"
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#bitcoinfees #mempool
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just made this one up for my son,
q: whats it called when you get a message from winnie-the-pooh?
a: poo-ping
I deleted my old acc a while ago but started a new one for marketing purposes. Can’t sell anything here 😆
When you smear shit all over your face at kindergarten and try to convince everyone it's Indian war paint.
でもゲイポルノミームって政府やオールドメディアに対抗できるアナーキズムだよなとか訳のわからないことを考えはじめたので今日は終わりです終わり終わり
I don’t watch shorts so not sure what you mean
For me, nostr is somewhat refreshing due to not having brain rot content I see on X now. I honestly can’t handle much of it and have to leave asap.
The only downside here is people always talking about content and users 😆
That sounds great 😁😁
I still have leftover meatballs so no meatball Sunday for me.
I read somewhere that the best time to pick them is at night?! So I'll probably be out there in June at 10:30 picking fuckin cucumbers
You may be interested to know I have 17 years experience developing log in with LinkedIn nostr applications. I know it is 3 years short of what the job description asked for but I decided to apply anyway.
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#bitcoinfees #mempool
Your balance is not private with onchain zaps!!!
Good defaults are quiet governance.
### 复盘：裘德道在期货上巨亏20亿，去世
作者—微信公众平台：趋势投资人
--------------
裘德道，浙商代表，小学没毕业，打过工、当过水泥匠。1998年用5000元闯入化纤领域，主攻涤纶长丝生产。他通过高杠杆和资金快速周转，在2003年前后迎来爆发式增长，身家突破十亿，跻身福润富豪榜，两度购入私人飞机。2006年宣布捐资1亿元成立“道远慈善基金”，重点资助白血病患者。2007年前后进军期货领域，在大豆、橡胶和铜等品种获利数亿。
2008年，陷入期货泥潭，亏损20多亿。2009年8月《人民日报》报道称：道远集团半年时间里损失20多亿元，但是董事长裘德道卖了别墅也要留住员工。
在2008年11月自杀未遂。2010年去世。有4个女儿和1个儿子。
一、2008年上半年，趁下跌做多橡胶，趁反弹做空橡胶09合约
1、2008年上半年，做多橡胶，出现浮盈
2005年以来，橡胶处于牛市中，价格上涨150%。2007年以来，橡胶的趋势不流畅，处于较大的宽幅震荡。在2008年上半年，橡胶处于调整中，裘德道趁下跌，逐步买入，做多橡胶。后橡胶强势上涨，裘德道出现浮盈。
2、2008年5月，涨到前期压力，裘德道平多，入空橡胶09合约
2008年5月，橡胶期货反弹到压力22500附近，裘德道平掉多单，全部入空，试图摸顶。
二、裘德道入空后，橡胶一路疯涨
1、2008年5月，国际原油步入牛市的巅峰 ，直到7月中旬
2008年5月，国际原油从122美元附近，一路疯涨，涨到148元，直到7月中旬。另外，5月份强热带风暴席卷缅甸，是缅甸历史上最严重的自然灾害之一，对缅甸的橡胶产生影响。
2、2008年5月开始，橡胶疯涨，一月上涨20%，直到7月中旬
裘德道入空09合约橡胶后，5月中旬橡胶开始疯涨，中间出现连续涨停。一个月内，从22500附近，上涨到28500附近，暴涨超过20%，中间出现连续涨停，空头浮亏较大，直到7月中旬。
但是裘德道并没有爆仓，也没有被强平，有充足的保证金。
三、7月中旬开始，橡胶01和05合约都暴跌，但唯独他做的09合约，高位不跌
1、7月中旬开始，原油、橡胶01和05合约开始暴跌
7中旬后，美国次债危机加剧，国际原油见历史大顶148美元/每桶，步入暴跌，到9月中旬，跌到91美元，两个月下跌38%。
7月中旬开始，橡胶01合约、05合约，暴跌超过20%
7月中旬，橡胶01合约和05合约，下跌达到20%，跌到当时的入仓区域，理论上能够解套。裘德道为什么没有解套，还亏损巨大呢？
2、其他合约都在暴跌，唯独09合约没有暴跌，裘德道被多头逼仓
其他商品期货普遍都在暴跌，橡胶其他合约都暴跌了20%左右，但是唯独裘德道重仓持有的09合约，没有暴跌，而且一直维持在高位，直到9月份中旬，09合约结束，步入交割。
裘德道为了交割，被迫在现货市场高价收购橡胶，然后去交割，最终他直接亏损约5亿元。所以他是被多头逼仓，多逼空。
3、回顾：05、01合约一路暴跌，如果裘做的是它们，将爆赚
2008年国庆节后，伴随着雷曼兄弟的倒闭，美国次债危机加剧，在全球引发了广泛的金融危机，期货普遍暴跌，其中橡胶是跌幅最大的品种之一，国庆节后，出现了6个跌停，从节前的20000最低跌到9000附近，跌幅达到55%，相对高点28000跌幅达到近70%。即便多头想逼仓，也扛不住半年的大幅下跌，逼仓要求时间短、跌幅有限的要求。
如果裘德道做的不是09合约，做的是01和05合约，这么大的跌幅，他能够翻十倍以上，能赚几十个亿，甚至上百亿。
四、9月亏5亿后，急于回本，10月做多PTA，遭遇毁灭打击
1、PTA暴跌中，做多PTA，想急于回本
2008年7月份，国际次债危机爆发，PTA一路暴跌，特别是国庆节期间，雷曼兄弟破产，国庆节后PTA连续暴跌，相对高点，下跌了36%。
裘德道在9月份亏5个亿后，急于回本，此时将目光对着已经暴跌的PTA，联合了当时PTA现货行业的巨头“华联三鑫”一起做多，利用它的现货背景，想操纵PTA的期货。他们在10月中旬一起买多。
2、买入后，PTA便一路暴跌28%，基本上都没反弹，亏了15亿
裘德道买入后，对市场没有掀起任何的涟漪，PTA期货一路暴跌，中间基本上就没反弹，一步跌到底，下跌了28%。
华联三鑫在PTA上被迫接下近15万吨现货，被套资金多达十几亿元，公司破产重组。作为关联企业，裘德道连带损失就超过15亿元，加上刚亏的5个亿，总共亏损超过20亿。
3、PTA这次应该不是空逼多，而是次债危机下的全球暴跌
从国庆节后，一直到11月中旬，国际原油暴跌31%，PTA其他合约都暴跌25%左右。所以PTA01合约不属于被空头逼仓，属于危机下的走势。
五、亏损没有结束，70多亿的担保损失才最致命
国际危机下，许多实体企业倒闭，其中绍兴纵横集团面临资金链断裂，而裘德道给该公司提供了10多亿的巨额预付款，收不回来，并且提供了高达70多亿元的担保，而陷入连带债务危机，最终裘德道的资金链断裂。
2008年11月7日将私人飞机，抵押给了债主。
裘德道于11月27号晚自杀，因抢救及时，才保住性命。
裘德道在重击之下一蹶不振，整个人消瘦了20斤。一个朋友描述：“他一蹶不振，眼睛布满血丝，有想要挽回一切的壮志，但也有着明显的力不从心。”
2009年初他接受采访时曾坦言：“不瞒你们说，多少次，我都想从阳台上跳下去”
2009年8月《人民日报》的一篇报道称，半年时间里损失20多亿元，但是董事长裘德道说：卖了别墅也要留住员工。
裘德道德道患上肝癌，2010年，肝移植手术失败去世。
六、我们学习到的经验教训
1、草根出身，风险意识薄弱，成也高杠杆，败也高杠杆
他是小学三年级毕业，从底层摸爬滚打起来，这些第一代创业者有共同的特点，那就是：胆子大，没有风险意识，更缺乏风险控制，经营粗糙。
2001年中国加入WTO，外贸行业迅速发展，在时代的红利下，他一直依靠高杠杆，企业的债务率高达70%左右，在2003年前后快速暴富。
这种成功让他产生了路径依赖和高杠杆的思维意识，在此后，他的企业依然维持着高杠杆，包括为纵横集团提供70多亿的担保，都属于高杠杆，在2008年首次遭遇经济危机，高杠杆迅速让的企业面临身存危机。所以他实业上，成也杠杆，败也杠杆。
他之所以进入期货领域，也是喜欢上期货里的高杠杆，2007年依靠高杠杆，运气好，在期货里赚了数亿，赚快钱；但是输得更快，2008年运气差，输了20多亿。
2、裘德道本质上抄底摸顶，亏了，仗着现货，不止损
他无论做橡胶，还是做PTA，都是下跌中买多，上涨中入空，本质上就是抄底摸顶。特别对于PTA，全球次债危机爆发，已经蔓延到全球，他还敢逆着宏观经济而买入。亏损了，不止损，一直扛单，如果是空单，则买现货去交割，如果是多单，则等待着接货，不考虑止损的问题。一旦遭遇逆势，行情前行较大，他的亏损也会很大。
They provide a challenge for sure.
Nostr is only for devs devving for other devs who won't use anything except what they devved themselves.
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#bitcoinfees #mempool
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📰 **In this week's issue:**
🗞️ **BREAKING**
The Dark Side of Decentralization: How Nostr Became a Malware Delivery Channel
A protocol celebrated as the internet s last bastion of free speech has been weaponized. Researchers have just dropped a functional proof of concept that transforms Nostr into an undetectable command-and control framework for botnets. Here is why this changes everything.
https://image.nostr.build/a4c289100d18cf9a1d65a50af802805aba7aa90fc7b129a28c78e95891af988f.jpg
✍️ Author: NM team
🔗 https://nostrmag.com/article/w20nostr01
📈 id#797067728
Go on, give them all badges and medals. This is what soldier boys live for.
That is up to you. Have you read The Diamond Age by Neal Stephenson? It's real now. An educator who can meet you where you are in terms of knowledge and teach you anything, but small and light enough to carry in your pocket all day every day.
Today I learned about the practice of Zen. Am I worse? Is the world worse?
Every tool can be used or misused. I think that the benefit of correct use will drive out incorrect use the same way a shopkeeper who thinks 2+2=3 will be out of business quickly.
[YouTube] France 24 - Nigeria, les gourous de la crypto
https://youtu.be/R5d-4MjAvFw
#nostrfr
7.22 km family walk
#proofofwatts
#365days
#31days
https://i.nostr.build/FGYchYN2VGVFD70I.jpg
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Funny, I ran it through mine due to suspicions, and it said it looked ok but couldn't verify seriously. Gonna go ahead and say nope...
nothing wrong with a little self-love from time to time
https://image.nostr.build/5d33899d4bd85695721a1e16e941f0832f8e28ed1f7d6fd0d0ef72b004be18ec.jpg https://image.nostr.build/6dae364f2932dbcfbdbc0b4b8c6a21f37051268eef79cad63cb76b57dd96c18d.jpg
What a couple days difference makes in the garden
Tried downloading on iPhone and I can't lol. It says it's preparing it for download but then nothing seems to happen. Oh well, I don't really need it that often anyway
I strive to live life, not concentrate on others standards!
https://cdn.midjourney.com/video/4295074e-55c9-4bb5-b467-da1755b40cf3/2.mp4
https://cdn.midjourney.com/a40a30dd-7aa6-4cb7-a99b-82722af23184/0_0.png
“有一种智慧与温情，叫做「如果觉得驴子太累，可以把麦子扛到肩上再骑」。”
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GM David
Thank you and have an great day my friend
### **BASTA UM SINAL**
Talvez você já tenha ouvido alguém dizer: “Se eu visse o Mar Vermelho se abrir, o maná cair do céu ou Jesus curar um cego, eu creria.” Ou porventura você mesmo já tenha pensado assim.
Por outro lado, por que deveria ser mais fácil crer hoje do que foi para as pessoas dos tempos bíblicos? Os israelitas não possuíam uma Bíblia completa nem tinham uma longa história do povo de Deus para refletir sobre ela, como nós. Moisés destacou a importância de lembrar a direção e a bondade de Deus (veja Dt 4:7-10; 8:2, 3). Diferentemente deles, nós contamos com 6 mil anos de história bíblica para aprender (veja Jo 20:30, 31).
Cada geração pede um sinal – e a nossa não é diferente –, mas os sinais estão à nossa volta. Em Mateus 24, vemos quantas coisas já se cumpriram e continuam se cumprindo.
Mesmo na época de Jesus, alguns pediam um sinal de que Ele era de fato o Filho de Deus, embora muitos sinais já tivessem sido dados. (Mc 8:11, 12).
Será que discutimos com Jesus e O colocamos à prova como fizeram os fariseus? Fazemos com que Ele “[suspire] profundamente” (Mc 8:12, NVI) por causa da nossa falta de fé, quando Ele já nos deu razões suficientes para crer?
“Esses sinais não eram aquilo de que os judeus necessitavam. Nenhuma prova meramente externa os beneficiaria. A necessidade deles não era de iluminação intelectual, mas de renovação espiritual” (Ellen G. White, O Desejado de Todas as Nações [CPB, 2021], p. 321). Não seria esse também o nosso caso: necessitados de renovação espiritual, de uma caminhada autêntica, real, passo a passo com Deus? Talvez não precisemos de mais um sinal, porque temos muita luz ao nosso alcance, especialmente em nossa própria Bíblia.
Em vez de fazermos Jesus “suspirar profundamente” por nossa falta de fé, lembremos o que Ele disse a Tomé: “Bem-aventurados são os que não viram e creram” (Jo 20:29; veja também Hb 11:1). Deus não nos pede uma fé cega, pois Ele já nos deu inúmeras razões para crer. E, ainda assim, mesmo com todas essas evidências, sempre há espaço para a dúvida. O segredo é focar o que fortalece a fé, não o que a enfraquece.
#bíblia #cristianismo #escolasabatina #fé #religião